Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#951 Pittsburgh Pirates 9 vs.
#952 Atlanta Braves -150
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 12:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Atlanta Braves will host the Pittsburgh Pirates as the NL foes conclude a four-game series Thursday afternoon from SunTrust Park. The Pirates will send 26-year old right-hander Joe Musgrove to the hill, and 28-year old right-hander Julio Teheran will take the mound for the Braves. The Braves lead the season series 3-2 entering Wednesday.

Musgrove Ejected Against Braves

Joe Musgrove will be on the hill for the 15th time of the season in this clash. Musgrove was ejected after throwing at Josh Donaldson Monday night in Atlanta after pitching only 2/3 of an inning.  Musgrove held the Braves to only three runs in eight innings in his first start this month. The fourth-year right-hander had a rough month of May which was inflated his ERA to 4.40 to go with a 1.19 WHIP and a 4-6 record in 73.2 innings logged. He has yet to be charged with a loss in his four career meetings against Atlanta, recording a strong 3.98 ERA and a 2-0 record. Ronald Acuna Jr. is 1 for 5 against Musgrove, while Freddie Freeman is 2 for 10, and Nick Markakis is 0 for 6.

Pirates’ slugger Josh Bell had a strong series against the Braves earlier this month, registering 4 hits in 8 at-bats with three RBI’s in two games, and he has driven in another two runs in this series. The 26-year old first baseman is having a spectacular season, sporting a .324 average with 18 home runs and a Major League-best 60 RBI’s. Bell has driven in eight runs on the month.

The Pirates are currently averaging 4.30 runs, ranking them 20th in the big leagues. The Pittsburgh pitching staff is carrying a rough 5.18 team ERA, placing them down at 28th overall. The Pirates stand at 17-18 away from home this season entering Wednesday.

Teheran Shines Again in Fourth Win of Season

Julio Teheran will get the nod for the 15th time of the season, seeking his second straight win. Teheran was flawless in his previous performance, tossing six shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Marlins, leading to the win to even his record at 4-4. The veteran right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors recently as he has allowed one or zero runs in seven straight starts, and he currently features a 3.03 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP paired with a 4–4 record in 77.1 innings of action. Teheran has shut down the Pirates bats in his 68 career innings, sporting a  4-1 record and a 2.38 ERA. Josh Bell is 1 for 9 against Teheran, while Jung Ho Kang is 0 for 5, and Gregory Polanco is 5 for 16.

Several of the Braves have heated up at the plate which includes Ozzie Albies. The 22-year old second baseman is sporting a .303 average this month, and he has notched four RBI’s in his last five games. The 22-year old second baseman hasn’t been quite as productive as last season, recording a .266 average with seven home runs and 26 RBI’s. Albies is 4 for 16 with three RBI’s against the Pirates this season.

The Braves are hot at the plate, and they have increased their season average to 5.12 runs, good for 11th in the Major Leagues. The Atlanta pitching staff features a 4.28 team ERA, pegging them 12th in the Majors. The Braves are 18-15 on their home field entering Wednesday’s action.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect a convincing Braves win in this one. The Braves are red-hot, while the Pirates are not.  Pittsburgh has dropped eight out of their last ten games, while Atlanta has won five consecutive games entering Wednesday’s action, and they have their hottest starter on the mount. Julio Teheran is on an incredible run, allowing one or zero earned runs in seven consecutive starts.

Furthermore, while both teams will be pumped up for this matchup after Pirates’ starter Joe Musgrove was ejected for throwing at Donaldson on Monday night, I expect the Braves to rattle the right-hander. The Braves hit two home runs against him earlier this month, and their bats should lead them to another win.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Full-Game Total Pick

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The under is a strong option in this one considering the two starting pitchers. As mentioned Julio Teheran is locked in, and he features an outstanding 2.38 career ERA against the Pirates, so I expect his success to continue, plus the under is 7-2 in his last nine starts overall.

In addition, Joe Musgrove held Atlanta to three runs in eight innings in the first meeting this month, and he should at least contain their offense. The under is 10-3 in the Pirates’ last 13 games in the fourth game of a series, and I expect that trend to resume in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Pirates team total offered on PointsBet is a strong option. Julio Teheran has only allowed a combined three runs over his last seven starts, and he has not allowed a single home run in that span. Several of the Pirates big hitters haven’t had any success against the right-hander which includes Josh Bell who is 1 for 9, and Starling Marte who is 5 for 24.

Prediction: Pirates Team Total Under 4

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am opting with the Braves on the three-inning line as well. Julio Teheran is very tough to crack in the first few innings. He features a cumulative 1.71 ERA through innings 1-3 this season. The opposite is the case for Musgrove who holds a 4.95 ERA through innings 1-3.

Prediction: Three Inning Line Atlanta Braves

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.