Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#955 St. Louis Cardinals 7.5 vs.
#956 New York Mets -145
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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#955 St. Louis Cardinals
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A pair of teams from the National League trying to gain ground in the playoff picture open up a set in the Big Apple. The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road for the first game of a four-game set with the New York Mets Thursday night. St. Louis closed a three-game set on the road against the Marlins looking for a sweep: they won Tuesday’s contest by a 7-1 score. The Mets split a doubleheader with the Yankees on the road: they dropped the opener 12-5 Tuesday before rebounding for a 10-4 win in the nightcap. The Cardinals took two of three in the first series this season between the teams, which took place April 19-21 in St. Louis.

St. Louis Cardinals Looking to Make Up Ground in NL Central

St. Louis won their second straight after being swept by the Cubs over the weekend as they stifled the Marlins. The Cardinals entered Wednesday third in the division, four games behind the Brewers in the NL Central race. St. Louis got two hits each from Marcell Ozuna (two runs, RBI), Yadier Molina (run), Kolten Wong (two runs) and Dexter Fowler (run, RBI) in the victory. The offensive outburst was more than enough for Dakota Hudson (5-3), who earned the win with seven strong innings. He allowed one run on four hits with two walks and six strikeouts.

Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Cardinals as he records his 14th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, 23 walks and 73 strikeouts over 68.1 innings of work on the season. Flaherty didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Saturday on the road against the Cubs. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing four runs on five hits with three walks and no strikeouts in a game the Cardinals lost 9-4. Flaherty has no record with a 3.68 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, three walks and 15 strikeouts over 14.2 innings in his last three starts. He makes his first career start against the Mets in this, his 48th career appearance and 47th major league start. Flaherty makes his first career outing at Citi Field in this contest as a result.

New York Mets Trying to Get Over .500 Mark

New York split a doubleheader with the Yankees in the latest chapter of the Subway Series. The Mets entered Wednesday’s off day five games behind the Braves and Phillies in the NL East race. In the opener, Jeff McNeil (run, three RBI) and Tomas Nido (run) each had two hits in the defeat. Zack Wheeler (5-4) took the loss as he allowed nine runs (five earned) on 10 hits with a walk and six strikeouts over 4.2 innings of work. In the nightcap, Carlos Gomez (his third), J.D. Davis (his seventh) and Pete Alonso (his 22nd) each homered in the victory. The offensive support was a boost for Jason Vargas (3-3), who turned in a quality start while picking up the win. He threw six innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks and three strikeouts.

Jacob deGrom gets the call to make his 14th start of the season from the Mets in this contest. He is 3-6 with a 3.45 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 20 walks and 94 strikeouts over 75.2 innings of work this season. In his last start, deGrom took the loss as the Mets fell to the Rockies on Friday night at home. He threw six innings, allowing two runs on six hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts in a 5-1 Mets defeat. In his last three starts, deGrom is 0-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, three walks and 19 strikeouts over 17.2 innings of work. He makes his seventh career start against the Cardinals in this contest. In those outings, deGrom is 4-2 with a 4.21 ERA, a 1.376 WHIP, six walks and 31 strikeouts over 36.1 innings of work. He is 27-25 with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.014 WHIP, 129 walks and 582 strikeouts over 484 innings in 75 career starts at Citi Field.

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The Cardinals have been up and down this season as they simply can’t seem to string together an extended stretch of consistent play. St. Louis is just 13-19 on the road entering Wednesday night and they’re facing a Mets team that has been good at home, posting a 19-11 mark. The Mets produce better offensively at Citi Field than they have on the road this season and Flaherty has scuffled on the road this season. He’s 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP with 16 walks and 28 strikeouts in 28.1 innings over six starts as the visiting pitcher this season. Sooner or later, the Mets are going to score for deGrom: look for the hosts to prevail in this contest.

Prediction: New York Mets -140

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The Mets have been rolling at Citi Field, winning 13 of their last 16 at home. On the season, New York is slashing a .256/.342/.457 line at home while averaging 5.07 runs per game on the season. That kind of offensive production would be a boost for deGrom, who has seen the Mets put up only 48 runs in his starts on the year. Flaherty has been all over the map and the inconsistency on the mound has been tough for the Cardinals to overcome as they are in the middle of the pack offensively. Can St. Louis find a way to slow the Mets’ roll at Citi Field?

The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last 6 during game 1 of a series, 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. New York has seen the under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central foes and 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Look for this one to fall short of the number thanks to a stellar outing from deGrom.

Prediction: Under 7.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.