Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#963 Toronto Blue Jays -130 vs.
#964 Baltimore Orioles 9
Thursday, June 13, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of struggling AL East teams close out a series in Charm City. The Toronto Blue Jays finish out a three-game set on the road against the Baltimore Orioles Thursday night. In the opening game of the series, it was the Orioles recording a 4-2 victory Tuesday night to draw first blood in the series. The pitching matchup for Wednesday night’s middle game of the set saw Edwin Jackson get the ball for Toronto. He was scheduled to face off with Baltimore’s David Hess: first pitch in that contest was scheduled for 7:05 pm ET.

Toronto Blue Jays Hoping to Get Back in Win Column

Toronto came up short in the opening game of this set Tuesday night, suffering their fifth straight loss in the process. In those five games, the Blue Jays haven’t scored more than two runs in any of the contests: they entered Wednesday fourth in the AL East, 18 games behind the Yankees and Rays for the top spot. Toronto got two hits from Eric Sogard (run, RBI), including his sixth homer of the year, but the rest of the team was a combined three of 27 in the contest. Trent Thornton (1-5) took the loss as he allowed three runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts over five innings of work.

Marcus Stroman makes his 15th start of the season hoping to try and turn things around for the Blue Jays. He is 3-8 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.322 WHIP, 28 walks and 63 strikeouts over 81.2 innings of work this season. Stroman took the loss in his last start, which came Friday at home against the Diamondbacks. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing six runs on seven hits with two walks and four strikeouts in an 8-2 Blue Jays loss. Stroman is 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, three walks and eight strikeouts over 17.2 innings in his last three starts. He is 4-5 with one save, a 3.52 ERA, a 1.304 WHIP, 15 walks and 52 strikeouts over 69 innings of work in 12 appearances, 11 starts, in his career against the Orioles. Stroman is 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA, a 1.405 WHIP, five walks and 21 strikeouts over 26.1 innings in five career starts at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Trying to Climb Out of AL East Basement

Baltimore came up with their second win in the last six games as they earned the victory Tuesday night. The Orioles are in the basement of the AL East, 20 games behind the Yankees and Rays but entered Wednesday only two games behind the Blue Jays to escape the cellar. Baltimore got three hits from Anthony Santander (run, RBI) while Jonathan Villar (run, RBI) added a pair in the contest. John Means (6-4) earned the win as he threw five innings, allowing one run on four hits with three walks and seven strikeouts. Mychal Givens worked the ninth, fanning two, to record his sixth save of the season.

Gabriel Ynoa gets the call for his 13th appearance and fourth start of the season for the Orioles in this contest. He comes in 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.439 WHIP, 12 walks and 28 strikeouts over 32.2 innings of work this season. Ynoa didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Astros. He threw six innings, allowing three runs on three hits with three walks and two strikeouts in a game the Orioles lost 4-3 in 11 innings. Ynoa is 0-1 with a 4.20 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, six walks and 10 strikeouts over 15 innings in his three starts this year. In his 32nd major league appearance and his 11th career start, he pitches against the Blue Jays for the first time. Ynoa is 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.286 WHIP, 10 walks and 32 strikeouts over 39.2 innings in 13 career appearances, three starts, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

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The Blue Jays aren’t producing much at the plate: they’ve provided two runs or less in eight of Stroman’s starts this year. Toronto mustered only two runs in the opening game of this series and hit only one homer against the majors’ most homer-prone staff. Baltimore, despite being terrible on the year, has shown some signs of improvement and their young arms are going to be relied on even more at this point with Alex Cobb done for the year. Ynoa held the Astros in check in his last outing: he should be able to do the same against the Blue Jays and get the win for the hosts here.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles +130

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Baltimore continues to struggle in the pitching department as they continue to try and find capable arms to fill spots. The Orioles are dead last in the majors in team ERA (5.48) while they are 26th in WHIP (1.43), 28th in strikeouts (509) and in quality starts (17) on the year. Toronto is last in the majors in team batting average (.218) and steals (16) while ranking 28th with 3.7 runs per game. Can the Blue Jays find a way to put up some runs against the Orioles in this contest?

The under is 3-0-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 Thursday games, 5-1 in their last 6 on grass, 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East teams and 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore has seen the under go 6-0 in their last six overall, 6-0 in their last six on grass, 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 6-0-1 in Stroman’s last seven starts against Baltimore. With the Blue Jays struggling to put up runs with him on the mound, you have to lean toward this one going under the total.

Prediction: Under 9

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.