Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#967 Boston Red Sox 10 vs.
#968 Minnesota Twins -135
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The first placeMinnesota Twins will host the Boston Red Sox in the three-game series opener Monday night from Target Field. The Red Sox will give the starting nod to 30-year old right-hander Rick Porcello, and the Twins will hand the ball to 25-year old right-hander Jose Berrios. The Red Sox went 4-3 against the Twins last season.

Porcello Shines Against Rangers, Eyes First Win of June

Rick Porcello will get the starting nod for the 15th time of the year, seeking his first win of June. Porcello was solid in his previous start, holding the Rangers to only two runs in 6.2 innings, resulting in a no-decision in a 4-3 Red Sox’ win. The 10-year veteran right-hander owns a poor 5.71 ERA on the month, and he enters this one with a weak 4.69 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP to go along with a 4-6 record in 80.2 innings pitched. Porcello has had success in his career against the Twins, filing a 12-10 record and a solid 3.83 ERA in 185.2 innings. Max Kepler is 3 for 15 against Porcello, while Eddie Rosario is 2 for 18, and Jorge Polanco is 2 for 9.

J.D. Martinez has been able to break through against Twins’ starter Jose Berrios, notching 4 hits in 11 at-bats with three RBI’s and two walks. The 31-year old left fielder hasn’t been quite as productive as last season, although he has heated up recently, launching four homers and five RBI’s in his last four games. Martinez features a .298 average with 16 homers and 39 RBI’s on the season. Andrew Benintendi is questionable for this one.

The Red Sox have heated up at the plate, and they stand fifth in the Majors with an average of 5.40 runs on the season. The Boston pitching staff owns a 4.34 team ERA, placing them 13th in the Major Leagues. The Red Sox are a solid 22-17 on the road this season.

Berrios Spins Gem Against Mariners, Targets Sixth Home Win

Twins’ ace Jose Berrios will take the mound for the 15th time of the season, aiming for win number nine. Berrios resumed his outstanding work in his latest effort, limiting the Mariners to only one run in 6.2 innings, resulting in a no-decision in a contest the Twins lost. The talented right-hander has registered four consecutive Quality Starts, and he features a 3.01 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP accompanied with an 8-2 record in 89.2 innings of action. He hasn’t seen much of the Red Sox in his young career, logging an 0-2 record and a 4.15 ERA in three career meetings. Xander Bogaerts is 0 for 6 against Berrios, while J.D. Martinez is 4 for 11, and Mookie Betts is 3 for 9.

Marwin Gonzalez has fared well in his career against Red Sox’ starter Rick Porcello, collecting 4 hits in 10 at-bats with two RBI’s. The 30-year old third baseman is one of many hot Twins’ hitters, recording a .340 average with nine RBI’s on the month. Gonzalez is currently hitting .262 with nine homers and 26 RBI’s on the season.

The Twins potent lineup continues to lead all of baseball with an average of 5.96 runs per game. The Minnesota pitching staff features a 3.95 team ERA, good for seventh in the big leagues. The Twins are tough to beat at home where they feature a 23-11 record.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am taking the Twins in this one. The Twins continue to shine, winning seven out of their last ten games overall, and they continue to lead the Majors in most major categories including home runs, runs per game, and OPS. The Twins are averaging a sizzling 6.1 runs in their last ten games.

Furthermore, while the Red Sox are playing better, they have taken advantage of weak pitching staffs against the Rangers and Orioles in their last two series’. Boston is underachieving this season, and Rick Porcello hasn’t been able to find a groove on the road where he stands at 0-3 with a terrible 6.37 ERA.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

I expect a high scoring clash between two potent lineups. The Twins powerhouse offense has resulted in the over transforming into a rewarding bet. They have scored at least five runs in six out of their last seven games, and the over is 7-1-2 in their last ten games.

In addition, while I am confident backing Jose Berrios, the Twins’ bullpen has been their only weakness. They hold a subpar 4.74 bullpen ERA on the season, and the Red Sox have heated up at the plate, plus the over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’ last five games at Target Field.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

I am opting with the under on the Red Sox team total offered by PointsBet. I can’t see the Red Sox doing much against Berrios. The Twins’ young ace has limited his opponents to just one run in three out of his last four starts, and he has gone at least six innings in those four performances. Also, Berrios is especially sharp at home where he features a stellar 2.53 ERA.

Prediction: Red Sox Team Total Under

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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Rating:

I am selecting the over on the Twins three inning team total. The Twins pile on the runs in the first three innings where they have accumulated 152 runs with a terrific .913 OPS. Porcello is shaky early in games as he owns a 4.75 ERA through innings 1-3.

Prediction: Twins Three Inning Team Total Over
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.