Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#957 Milwaukee Brewers 8 vs.
#958 San Diego Padres -120
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 10:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

When and Where: Monday, June 17, Petco Park, San Diego, Calif., 10:10 p.m. EDT.

After taking a battering at Coors Field, the San Diego Padres hope returning to pitcher-friendly Petco Park will get them back in sync as they open a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.

Brewers move down California coast after avoiding sweep

Milwaukee (40-31) maintained a slim lead atop the NL Central heading to San Diego after avoiding a sweep of its three-game series at San Francisco on Sunday with a 5-3 victory.

Jesus Aguilar‘s pinch homer in the sixth capped the scoring, and Milwaukee’s bullpen came up clutch with five scoreless innings after Chase Anderson was largely ineffective.

The bullpen is hoping Jhoulys Chacin (3-7, 5.74 ERA) can snap out of his funk and avoid a fifth consecutive losing start as he will be activated off the injured list prior to the game. The right-hander — sidelined by a lower back strain — last pitched May 31 when he was drilled for a season-worst seven runs in 2 2-3 innings of a 9-4 loss at Pittsburgh.

“I’ve been trying to get better and working on stuff, and finally [Monday] I’m going to have the chance to get back and start a game,” Chacin told the Brewers’ official website. “It is a little bit tougher after a bad start, and then the injury and have to wait two weeks.

“You want another chance to make all the adjustments and pitch good. But sometimes things happen and the only thing you can do is try to reset your mind, see what things you did well and try to go from there.”

Chacin has lost six straight road starts since winning his first one at Cincinnati on April 2, posting an 8.20 ERA in those defeats. The righty, who went 13-10 for San Diego in 2017, is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts versus the Padres.

He is also 10-4 with a 2.12 ERA in 19 career starts at Petco Park.

Manny Machado, who went 10 for 19 with 10 runs scored and a pair of homers in San Diego’s four-game series at Colorado, is 1 for 7 lifetime versus Chacin.

Padres somehow salvage split at Coors despite awful pitching

San Diego (35-37) completed a six-game road trip at 2-4 after battling to split a four-game series at Coors Field versus Colorado, but those four games were extremely taxing on the pitching staff.

The Padres were lit up for 48 runs and 69 hits in the four games, and their overall ERA spiked 0.43 runs to 4.62 following Sunday’s dramatic 14-13 victory in which they rallied from three down in the ninth.

“A four-game series here, it feels like a month,” first basemanEric Hosmertold The Associated Press. “This was a grind.”

San Diego’s bullpen was heavily strained in the series finale, pitching 7 2-3 innings after Nick Margevicius got just four outs while giving up nine runs.

The Padres can only hope the only starter not to pitch at Coors Field — Joey Lucchesi (5-4, 4.11) — was not shellshocked by what he saw happen in Denver. The left-hander was denied a third consecutive winning start Wednesday in San Francisco, giving up three runs and five hits in six innings of a 4-2 defeat.

“Joey was good enough to win a baseball game,” manager Andy Green told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We have to do more offensively and even defensively to help him out.”

Lucchesi failed to record a decision in his only start against Milwaukee, which was also his major league debut March 30, 2018. The southpaw was reached for three runs and seven hits in 4 2-3 innings of San Diego’s eventual 8-6 loss.

The Padres are hoping Hunter Renfroe can pick up where he left off at Coors Field, having belted two home runs in Sunday’s win and another three Friday. Renfroe has a team-best 21 homers, including 10 in 88 at-bats at home.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This is more of a pick against Chacin as opposed to for Lucchesi, though the latter is under pressure to deliver a deep start at the very least to give San Diego’s bullpen a break. Even with Chacin’s track record at Petco, it feels like too big an ask for the righty to step right back into the fold and deliver a win for Milwaukee.

Prediction: Padres -1.5 runs (+165)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The loss of the hook on the number in its drop to eight is the leading reason for the flip to the over on this pick. There is also some skittishness in trusting Chacin to be effective in his return from the injured list. The over has delivered in the last five games between the teams and is also 6-1 in Lucchesi’s last seven home starts versus above-.500 teams.

The over is 3-0-2 in Milwaukee’s last five games and also 6-1 in its last seven against pitchers with a sub-1.15 WHIP.

Prediction: OVER 8 runs (-110)

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Even with Chacin’s solid track record at Petco Park in his career, the combination of him coming off the injured list and San Diego mashing the ball all over Coors Field makes that low number all too inviting to jump on.

The Padres have scored five or more runs in 10 of their last 13 after doing so in all four contests in Denver and in five of their last seven at Petco.

Prediction: Padres OVER 4 runs (-115)

First Five Innings Side Pick

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This is a confidence pick in the Padres backing Lucchesi with runs as they have gone 5-2-2 after five innings in his last nine starts. Milwaukee also has not led after five innings in Chacin’s last 11 starts (0-7-4) since his Opening Day start against St. Louis.

Prediction: Padres -0.5 runs (-105)

First Five Innings Total Bet

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The expectation is for the Padres to nick a few runs off Chacin as he works off the rust, and Lucchesi has given up two or more runs in the first five innings in four of his last six starts. The five-inning over is 5-1 in San Diego’s last six games and 13-2 in Milwaukee’s last 15.

Prediction: OVER 4.5 runs (-115)

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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The hedge is San Diego’s offense will have one last push after its breakout series in Denver in which it scored 14 runs in the first three innings of that four-game series. Chacin also has an ERA of 5.25 and higher in each of the first three innings this year and has issued 25 walks in his 12 starts in the first three frames, which means the Padres should have opportunities to knock in runs.

Prediction: Padres OVER 1 run first 3 innings (-115)
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Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is based in Chicago. Prior to joining our team here at Winners & Whiner, he worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Follow Chris daily right here at W&W and on Twitter at @AlTruda73. You won’t be disappointed.