Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#961 Tampa Bay Rays 9.5 vs.
#962 New York Yankees -130
Monday, June 17, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by David Hess

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Major League Baseball action on Monday evening and a pair of teams from the American League East will square off as the Tampa Bay Rays battle it out with the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. This is game one of a three-game series. The Yankees lead the season series 4-2.

Pitching Matchup: The Rays have yet to announce a starter for this one, while the Yankees will be sending out Masahiro Tanaka (4-5, 3.58 ERA).

Rays Finish Homestand On A High Note

The Tampa Bay Rays are in a battle with the New York Yankees for first place in the Ameri can League East and they would have a lead in the division right now if they played a bit better at home this year. The Rays come into this game off a seven-game homestand and they went just 3-4 in those games, which now puts their home record at just 20-18 on the year, compared to going 23-10 on the road. The Rays are now just a half a game out of first in the AL East and that makes this series huge for both team. We also note that both teams have to be leery of the Boston Red Sox, who are starting to get their act together and are just 5.5 games out of first.

The Rays did finish their homestand on a high note as they beat the Angels by a score of 6-5. The Rays had a 6-2 lead heading to the 9th and had to hold on for dear life as the Halos scored twice to make it 6-5. Diego Castillo allowed both runs, but he held on for the save, which was his 7th of the year.Ryne Stanek allowed one ER in 1.1 innings of work as the opener, while Colin Pouche (1-1, 5.68 ERA) pitched scoreless 6th and 7th innings to pick up the win. On offense, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe Each had two hits and an RBI, while Lowe (15th) and Tommy Pham (10th) each went deep. The Rays have been led by their pitching this year, but they have now allowed five or more runs in four of their last five games. It doesn’t get any easier as they are about to face the high-scoring Yankees.

Taking the hill for the Rays will be Yonny Chirinos and he has gone 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 14 games (seven starts) on the year, including 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts and 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six games (three starts) on the road. Chirinos is 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in his eight starts. In his career, he has made 15 starts overall and 4-5 with a 3.29 ERA in those 15 starts. Chirinos is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in four games (one start) in his career against the Yankees.

The Rays have been below average on offense so far as they come in ranked 17th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.73 rpg, while also ranking 5th in hitting at .262 and 18th in homers with 93. On the mound, they have been very strong as they rank 1st in the league in ERA at 3.06 while also ranking 3rd in WHIP at 1.12 and 3rd in K’s with 677. Their pen ranks 2nd in ERA at 3.41.

Yankees Homer In 19th Game In A Row

For much of the year, the New York Yankees have had an entire all-star team on the injured list, but they still have had one of the best offenses in the league this year. A big part of the Yankee offense has always been the home run and they are in the top eight in that category this year. That is amazing considering the fact that Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been on the Injured List for much of the year. Just as impressive is the fact that the Yankees have now hit a homer in 19 straight games after getting one from Cameron Maybin in their 10-3 win over the White Sox on Sunday. It was his 3rd of the year. As good as the offense has been, it is about to get better as Judge will come off the IL soon, while Stanton is listed as probable for Tuesday’s game. We also note that the Yankees have added Edwin Encarnacion in a trade with the Mariners and he has 21 homers on the year after launching at least 32 of them into the atmosphere in each of his last seven seasons. This offense is about to be downright frightening.

Back to their 10-3 win over the White Sox. The Yankees pounded out 12 hits and leading their attack was Brett Gardner and Austin Romine, who each had two hits and four RBIs. Five players in all had two hits in the game for the Yankees, who have scored 37 runs in their last four wins, compared to just 16 runs in their last five losses. James Paxton came in looking to bounce back from a horrible outing against the Mets and he did that by allowing just two ERs on eight hits and one walk while striking out seven in 6.0 innings of work. He is now at 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA on the year. Something has to give in this game as the Rays are one of the best road teams in the league, while the Yanks have gone 22-13 here at home.

Toeing the slab for the Yankees will be Masahiro Tanak and he has gone 4-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 14 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts and 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in eight starts here at home. In his career, he has gone 37-19 with a 3.42 ERA in 74 starts here at Yankee Stadium and 10-9 with a 3.83 ERA in 25 starts during the month of June. Tanaka has gone 9-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 career starts against the Rays.

The Yankees have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 4th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.41 rpg, while also ranking 9th in hitting at .258 and 8th in homers with 111. On the mound, they have been solid as they come in ranked 8th in the league in ERA at 4.07, while also ranking 7th in WHIP at 1.26 and 9th in K’s with 652. The bullpen ranks 6th in the league with a 3.99 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will go with the Rays to take game one of this important series between these American League East foes. Yonny Chirinos has been very good as a starter this year and the Rays as a team have been strong on the road. The Yankees continue to play well, despite all the injuries and they are getting healthier, but Tanaka has struggled of late as he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts and the Rays have been a decent offensive team on the road as they have averaged 4.76 rpg away from home. Lastly, the Rays are an amazing 22-4 in their last 26 games on Monday, plus they have a 3.13 ERA in their last 10 games and a 2.73 ERA on the road, while the Yanks have a struggled on the mound of late with a 6.17 ERA in their last 10 games. Take the Rays in this one.

Prediction: Tampa Bay

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The Rays have averaged a modest 4.76 rpg on the road and the Yanks have one of the best offenses in the league, but I still see this one going Under the Total. If you watched last night’s Cubs/ Dodgers game, it had a playoff-type atmosphere to it and those games tend to be low scoring. This series is huge for both teams and that means plenty of playoff-like atmosphere for this one as well. A lot of managerial moves, which will slow the game down and keep the scoring low. Yonny Chirinos has a 2.36 ERA as a starter this year and while Masahiro Tanaka has struggled of late, he still has a 3.38 ERA at home and a 3.33 ERA in his career against the Rays. We also note that Tampa Bay has allowed just 3.00 rpg on the road, while the Yanks have allowed just 3.71 rpg at home, plus the bullpens for both teams are top six in the league. Look for runs to be at a premium in this one and the clincher is the fact that the Under is 9-1 the last 109 games between these teams here in New York.

Prediction: Under
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.