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The Mets have stumbled out of contention in the ultra-competitive National League East, thanks in part to a dismal 13-21 record at home. They enter the week eight games below the .500-mark with a 30-38 overall record, 10.5 games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves. Colorado currently sits 5.0 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the National League West.
Vargas battling for spot in Mets starting rotation
The Mets will send veteran lefty Jason Vargas to the hill at Coors Field on Tuesday, who continues to battle for a spot in the starting rotation during Noah Syndergaard’s absence. Syndergaard’s lingering finger injury has given Vargas a chance to build on his recent success. He sports a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts, though he has not surpassed the five-inning mark in any of those outings. The 25-year-old enters Tuesday’s start with a 2-5 overall record to go along with a 7.39 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in eight starts this year.
Vargas has not faced the Rockies since 2014, when he tossed 6 ⅔ innings of two-run ball against them as a member of the Royals.
According to Baseball Savant, the current Rockies’ lineup is batting .250 with a .517 expected slugging percentage in 29 plate appearances against the Mets’ left-hander. They own an exit velocity of 99.1 mph and a launch angle of 24.5 degrees against him coming into this game.
Marquez looks to reverse fortune at home
The Rockies will hand the ball to German Marquez on Tuesday night. Marquez has struggled at home in 2018 after posting a 4.59 ERA in 13 home starts last season. The 23-year-old right-hander enters the series with a 7.71 ERA at Coors Field and a 3.07 ERA away from home this season. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three outings and his fresh off of surrendered six earned runs on seven hits over six innings of work on the road against the Phillies.
Marquez comes in with a 4-7 overall record to go along with a 5.13 ERA. Last season, Marquez tossed a quality outing in his only start against the Mets, allowing three runs in six innings of work, but did not factor into the decision.
According to Baseball Savant, the current Mets roster is batting just .189 off of Marquez in 37 career plate appearances. They enter Tuesday’s game with an expected weighted on-base percentage of .212 and an expected slugging percentage of .330 against the Rockies’ right-hander.
- Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rockies are 6-1 in Marquez’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rockies are 13-6 in Marquez’s last 19 starts with 4 days of rest.
Vargas has not been very good on the mound for the Mets this year, and despite his recent success, I’m going to roll with the Rockies in this spot. Marquez has also been uncharacteristically bad this year, but rebounded to post a 3.32 ERA in five starts during the month of May. The Mets have been one of the worst lineups in the big leagues this season and they’ve been even more inept over the past few weeks. Take the Rockies to come away with a win at home in Coors Field on Tuesday night.
Pick: Colorado Rockies
No matter who you opt to go with on the mound in this one, you’ll have to be able to stomach giving up at least a couple of runs. Marquez has been terrible at Coors Field all season long and has given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Vargas, meanwhile, had an ERA over 10.00 prior to his last three starts and sports a road ERA of 9.15 for the season. Look for this game to go over the projected total at Coors Field on Tuesday night.
- Over is 9-1-2 in Rockies last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 14-2-2 in Rockies last 18 overall.