Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#6957 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#6958 San Diego Padres
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Friday the (37-34) Philadelphia Phillies and the (44-28) San Diego Padres will play game two of this four-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 9:40 PM EST inside Petco Park. This is also the second series between these two teams this regular season. The Padres won two of three games the first time they matched up.

The Phillies came into this series after losing back-to-back games to the Texas Rangers. Philadelphia looked shaky at the plate in this series, as they only scored two combined runs. They will need their bats to wake up if they want to challenge the Padres on the road.

The San Diego Padres are entering this series after sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres looked great at the plate, as they scored 10 runs in the final game of this series. They also have one of the best starting pitching rotations in the league, as they have already recorded 39 quality starts.

This game was written/published before last night's results, but the Phillies did win that game 6-2.

The Phillies Defense Must be Better

The Philadelphia Phillies have jumped out to a decent start to begin this regular season, but they still have a long ways to go. They are currently in third place in the NL East. At the plate, the Phillies have also been solid. They are currently scoring 4.77 runs per game and are hitting .247 as a team. This is the sixth most runs scored per game and the 12th highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can consistently reach base safely and they are also very clutch when they have men in scoring position. The Phillies have multiple men that can change the game with one swing of the ball, as well. They are currently averaging 1.27 bombs per game, which is the seventh-highest average in the MLB. Watch for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber at the plate in this one. These two have already combined for 34 home runs this season. I also expect the Phillies to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely. They have already stolen 34 bases this season, which is the seventh most in the league. Philadelphia will attempt to move runners into scoring position as quickly as they can. Bryce Harper has also been on and off the injury report this season. I would check to make sure he is playing before placing your bet on this game.

In the field, the Phillies haven't been as strong to start this season. They are currently allowing 3.93 runs per game and have a combined team WHIP rating of 1.27. This is the 14th least amount of runs allowed per game and the 17th highest team WHIP rating. Reaching base has been too easy for their opponents, as Philadelphia isn't talented enough in the field to keep all of these base runners from scoring. The Phillies starting pitching has been solid, though. They have already recorded 31 quality starts, which is the fourth most in the league. They trust all of their starting pitchers, as they all can go very deep into this game.

According to MLB.com, Aaron Nola will be getting the start on the mound in this one. He has started this season (4-4) with a 3.11 ERA. He also has a .87 WHIP rating, as reaching base safely has been a struggle for opposing teams. Behind him, the Phillies also need to step it up in the field. They have already committed 40 fielding errors this season, which is the 19th most in the league.

The Padres are Rolling Right Now

The San Diego Padres have jumped out to a great start this 2022 regular season, despite dealing with some serious injuries. They have been without Fernando Tatis Jr. for the majority of the season and now they have lost Manny Machado with an ankle sprain. At the plate, the Padres have been decent this season. They are currently scoring 4.75 runs per game and they are hitting .245 as a team. This is the ninth most runs scored per game and the 14th highest overall team batting average. They have shown that they can consistently reach base safely and they have been able to score multiple different ways. This will be tougher without their two superstars, though. San Diego can string hits together and drive in runs, but they also have a few men that can go yard no matter who is on the mound. They are averaging .90 home runs per game, which is the 24th highest average in the league. I also expect them to stay fairly conservative once they have reached base safely. They have only stolen 25 bases this season, which is the 25th least in the MLB.

In the field, the Padres have been incredible this season. They are one of the best defensive teams in the league, as their starting pitching has been incredible and their fielding has been even better. They are currently only allowing 3.42 runs per game and they have a combined team WHIP rating of 1.15. This is the fifth least amount of runs surrendered each game and the fifth-lowest overall team WHIP rating. Reaching base safely against this team is a serious challenge and scoring is even more difficult. San Diego goes into every game confident that they can win, as their starting pitching rotation has been one of the best in the league. They have already recorded 39 quality starts, which is the most in the MLB.

According to MLB.com, MacKenzie Gore will be starting in this game. He has started this season (4-3) with a 3.64 ERA. He has also already struck out 61 batters in the 54.1 innings that he has pitched. The men in the field behind him have also been solid this season. They have only committed 27 fielding errors, which is the second least in the entire league. They keep the ball in front of themselves and do their best to not make any mistakes that could come back to haunt them.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be riding with the Phillies in this matchup. The San Diego Padres are currently dealing with injuries and have lost two of their best players. Without Machado in the lineup, I see the Padres struggling at the plate. They have the 14th lowest overall team batting average and Aaron Nola has what it takes to shut this offense down. He started this season poorly but has found his footing over his last five starts. He has pitched for at least 8.0 innings in three of those five games and blanked the Nationals the last time he was on the mound. He will make up for his team's weak fielding and the Phillies offense will be able to score enough runs to cover this run line spread (-1.5). The Padres will have MacKenzie Gore on the mound, as he was lit up in his previous start against the Rockies. He surrendered eight earned runs and didn't have what it took to get the job done for his team. The Phillies bats will wake up in this game and they will cover the run line spread.

Pick the Philadelphia Phillies for plus money on the run line spread (-1.5).

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+145)

Full-Game Total Pick

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I don't see a ton of runs being scored in this game. The San Diego Padres are without two of their best offensive weapons and they will struggle at the plate against Aaron Nola. They have the 14th highest overall team batting average and he has what it takes to go very deep into this game. He also has a .87 WHIP rating, which is one of the lowest in the league. The Padres will struggle to reach base consistently and they won't generate enough runs to help push this total over (7.5). I also see the Phillies scoring enough runs to win this game, but not enough to push this total over the number. The Padres are one of the best teams in the field and they aren't going to surrender a ton of runs in this game. MacKenzie Gore can also go very deep into this game. He was shelled in his last two starts, but he looked good before that. San Diego is allowing the fifth least amount of runs per game, as well. They will play solid behind Gore and this game will stay low scoring.

Pick the under (7.5) and expect a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 7.5
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!