Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Picks - July 10, 2024

Author: Michael Briggs Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 9:40pm EST

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday at Chase Field. The first pitch is at 6:40 p.m. PT.

Atlanta (50-39 SU, 41-48 RL, and 31-53-5 O/U) is starting right-hander Charlie Morton. The 40-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 16 outings this year.

Arizona (45-46 SU, 46-45 RL, and 47-41-3 O/U) hasn't named a probable starter. Right-hander Slade Cecconi is in line to make the start. The 25-year-old is 2-6 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in his 13 appearances (12 starts).

*Article published before the conclusion of Tuesday's game.

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Will Braves' bats start waking up?

Atlanta is 11 games over the .500 mark but still has some ground to make up in the N.L. East standings. Can it chase down Philadelphia after the break?

The Braves rank 21st in OBP (.306), 13th in OPS (.711), 12th in home runs (102), and 16th in RBI (364). Atlanta's pitching staff has a 3.41 ERA (2nd) and 1.19 WHIP (7th) with 796 strikeouts (4th) and 257 walks (23rd). Opponents are hitting .232 (7th) against the Braves.

Morton will toe the slab for Atlanta on Wednesday in Phoenix. The veteran righty allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits and two walks in his last start (5.1 IP vs. San Francisco). He is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in seven road outings (40.0 IP). Morton is 5-3 with a 4.16 ERA in 14 career appearances versus Arizona. He faced the Diamondbacks twice in 2023, surrendering seven runs on 12 hits with 13 Ks in 12.2 combined frames.

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Arizona's Cecconi has dropped the ball at home

Arizona is only one game under .500 but is still ten games behind Los Angeles in the N.L. West. Can it keep climbing the standings in the second half of the season?

The Diamondbacks rank 8th in OBP (.324), 9th in OPS (.732), 14th in home runs (95), and 5th in RBI (427). Arizona's pitching staff sports a 4.62 ERA (28th) and 1.35 WHIP (25th) with 668 strikeouts (29th) and 269 walks (18th). Opponents are hitting .263 (29th) against the D-Backs this year.

Cecconi is expected to take the mound for the home team. In his last outing, the second-year pro gave up five runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings versus San Diego. He has struggled at home, posting a 0-3 record with an 11.65 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in four starts (17.0 IP). Cecconi has never faced Atlanta. He has a 50:12 K:BB ratio this season.

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Best Bets for Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Braves aren't consistent at the dish, especially on the road (.226 BA/.292 OBP/.379 SLG/.671 OPS), while the D-Backs are crushing the baseball. They slashed .269/.341/.433/.773 in June and haven't slowed down in July (.286/.352/.523/.874). Morton has been solid but not spectacular and is coming off a poor performance in his last start.

Cecconi has struggled at home, but just 4 of his 12 starts this season have been at Chase Field, and he's due for positive regression, as his xERA is 1.99 points lower than his actual ERA. If the Braves don't get to him early, they could find it challenging to keep pace with the scorching hot D-Backs tomorrow.

Bet on the home team to win straight-up on Wednesday!

Prediction: Arizona ML

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

The Diamondbacks scored 5.0 runs per game last month, with 29 homers and 47 doubles in 27 games. They are averaging 7.7 runs per game this month and have been consistent at home all season (4.7 runs/game). Morton is an experienced veteran, but he's been up-and-down over his last few starts, giving up 14 runs in three games and one total run in three other three starts. I'm not betting on the latter outcome against the Diamondbacks' bats.

Given Cecconi's alarmingly high home ERA, the over is the logical play. Even if he pitches better than expected, the Braves are talented enough to pressure the Arizona bullpen, which ranks 25th in ERA and has given up the third-most home runs in MLB. Even closer Paul Sewald has been unreliable recently, blowing three straight save opportunities.

The over is my play on the total in Wednesday night's game!

Prediction: Over

Author Profile

Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

I jumped into sports betting headfirst due to an irresistible call to action. I am a sports writer by trade, earning my B.A. in Journalism with a sports reporting concentration from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking "shop" with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid traps that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition assist or deter my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports gambling are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of accountability. A bettor is never as hot or cold as their best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to obtaining knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you will never feel caught up in the current stream. Sometimes you need to be counterintuitive. Risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me, you'll find that the reward justifies the wager!