Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Picks - July 10, 2024

Author: Michael Briggs Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 8:10pm EST

The Pittsburgh Pirates will battle the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday at American Family Field. The first pitch is at 7:10 p.m. CT.

The Brewers are -148 moneyline favorites, and the game total is 8.5 runs scored.

Pittsburgh (43-47 SU, 48-42 RL, and 41-46-3 O/U) is starting left-hander Martín Pérez. The 33-year-old is 1-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 13 outings this year.

Milwaukee (53-38 SU, 49-42 RL, and 48-38-5 O/U) is countering with right-hander Tobias Myers. The 25-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his 13 appearances (12 starts).

*Article published before the conclusion of Tuesday's game.

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Pirates' Pérez was dominant in his last start

Pittsburgh split a four-game series with New York (N.L.) earlier this week. The Pirates enter their series in Milwaukee four games under .500 and 9.5 games out of first place in the N.L. Central division.

Pitt ranks 25th in OBP (.299), 27th in OPS (.666), 19th in home runs (92), and 19th in RBI (357). The Pirates' pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA (15th and 1.28 WHIP (20th) with 767 strikeouts (15th) and 269 walks (18th). Opponents are hitting .248 (20th) against Pittsburgh.

Pérez will toe the rubber for the visitors tomorrow. In his last outing, the veteran southpaw allowed one run on seven hits in 7.1 innings versus St. Louis. He has struggled on the road, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in six away games (31.2 IP). Pérez had a rough start against Milwaukee on May 15, giving up nine runs on 11 hits, including five home runs. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in four career appearances versus the Brewers.

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Is Milwaukee still being overlooked?

Milwaukee leads the N.L. Central by 4.5 games over second-place St. Louis. The Brewers have had a winning record in every month this season.

Milwaukee ranks 2nd in OBP (.332), 9th in OPS (.732), 15th in home runs (94), and 8th in RBI (417). The Brewers' pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA (9th) and 1.26 WHIP (12th) with 721 strikeouts (26th) and 285 walks (18th). Opponents are hitting .240 (14th) against Milwaukee this year.

Myers will take the hill for the home team tomorrow. In his last appearance, the rookie righty gave up four runs on eight hits with five Ks in six innings versus Colorado. He is 1-0 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five home starts (25.1 IP). Myers faced Pittsburgh on April 23, holding the Pirates to one run on four hits in a five-inning loss.

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Best Bets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers knocked Pérez around earlier this season and should fare well in the rematch. If they can force him from the game early enough, they will have ample opportunities to pile on against the Pirates' bullpen (26th in ERA and WHIP), too. Milwaukee slashes .259 BA/.341 OBP/.416 SLG/.758 OPS at home and is averaging 4.8 runs per game this month.

Pittsburgh hits .227/.296/.361/.657 vs. right-handers and .220/.285/.358/.643 in night games. It has lost three consecutive series and scored two runs in three of its last five games. The Pirates don't have enough firepower to keep pace with the home team, especially given the strength of the Brew Crew's pen (3rd in ERA and 8th in WHIP).

Milwaukee will win and cover the run line on Wednesday!

Prediction: Brewers RL (-1.5)

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Betting Trends: The over is 15-10-3 (60.0%) when the Brewers are home favorites and 44-35-6 (55.7%) when they play a team with equal rest this year.

Milwaukee is a high-scoring club facing a starting pitcher it launched five home runs against in April and a bullpen that's bottom-five in the big leagues. It has been a winning team at home (27-13 SU) this year and has hit left-handers nearly as well as right-handers. Pittsburgh has had some scoring duds recently, but it's slashing .262/.326/.468/.793 through its first seven games this month. It's been hit or miss, scoring 22 combined runs in the first and last games of its previous series and just four runs in the other two games, but it's unlikely to be shut out by the rookie Myers.

With the total at 8.5, I predict the over will cash tomorrow night.

Prediction: Over 8.5

Author Profile

Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

I jumped into sports betting headfirst due to an irresistible call to action. I am a sports writer by trade, earning my B.A. in Journalism with a sports reporting concentration from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking "shop" with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid traps that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition assist or deter my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports gambling are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of accountability. A bettor is never as hot or cold as their best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to obtaining knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you will never feel caught up in the current stream. Sometimes you need to be counterintuitive. Risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me, you'll find that the reward justifies the wager!