Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks - July 10, 2024

Author: Paul Biagioli Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 7:10pm EST

Two NL East rivals continue their three-game series on Wednesday when the Washington Nationals (42-49, 4th NL East) take on the New York Mets (44-45, 3rd NL East). The first game of the series was played on Tuesday night (Note: this article was published before Tuesday's results). The Mets currently hold a 5-2 lead in the season series. The Nationals are starting Patrick Corbin (5.49 ERA) and the Mets will go with Luis Severino (3.83 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 EST from Citi Field in Queens.

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Washington Slips in the Standings

The Washington Nationals held third place in the NL East behind the Phillies and Braves for much of the season, but lost that spot to this Mets team who were able to jump them in the standings. The Nationals just lost three of four games in a series against the Cardinals, and are now three games behind the Mets for third in the division. They are far behind the Phillies for the division lead, as Philly is ahead by 17 games. In their final game against St. Louis, they had eight hits but could not score a single run in the 6-0 loss.

The Nationals only placed one player on the All-Star Team, shortstop CJ Abrams. The 23-year-old infielder leads the team with 14 homers, 46 RBIs and 92 hits, and has the top batting average at .279. Abrams took the leadoff spot against the Cardinals. Jesse Winker is their left fielder, but he took the DH spot in their last game. Winker has 10 home runs on the year to go with 41 RBIs and a .268 batting average from the cleanup spot. Luis Garcia Jr. is their second baseman, he is the final player on the team with double-digit home runs, as he has 10 on the year to go with his 44 RBIs. Garcia batted sixth in the lineup on Monday.

Patrick Corbin will make his 19th start of the season in this game, he is a 34-year-old left-hander with a 1-8 record, and the team has gone 1-4 overall in his last four starts. He has a 5.49 ERA to go with 68 strikeouts to 35 walks, with 14 home runs allowed on the season. In his last start, Corbin pitched five innings, giving up three earned runs in a loss to the Cardinals.

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Mets Fighting for Wild Card

The New York Mets are trying to turn their season around and contend for a wild-card spot in the National League. They just split a series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, and are now just two games behind the Padres for the last Wild Card spot. With three Wild Card positions allotted, the NL East could easily get three teams into the postseason. In their last game against Pittsburgh, Brandon Nimmo homered in the sixth inning, but the team still lost 8-2.

Nimmo may have been one of the biggest snubs from the All-Star Team, as the outfielder is having a productive season for New York. He began the season as the leadoff hitter, but has since moved to second in the lineup. Nimmo leads the team with 58 RBIs, while adding 14 home runs with a .252 batting average. The lone All-Star on the team is their home run hitter, first baseman Pete Alonso. He leads the team with 18 home runs and has added 48 RBIs from the cleanup spot in the lineup. Their new leadoff hitter is shortstop Francisco Lindor, he leads the team with 93 hits and has the top batting average at .253 while adding 15 home runs and 45 RBIs.

Luis Severino will make his 18th start of the season, he is a 30-year-old right-hander with a 5-3 record, but the team has lost in each of his last two starts. His ERA is 3.83 to go with 77 strikeouts to 34 walks with 12 home runs allowed on the year. In his last start, he pitched six innings but gave up seven earned runs in a loss to the Pirates.

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Best Bets for Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Mets are even money to cover the runline, which is the smarter play, as they are -190 on the moneyline. The Mets will dominate here, as Corbin has not pitched well this season. He is a regular part of the rotation, but only has a 1-8 record on the year, and the Nationals lost in four of his last five starts. The Mets have the better pitcher on the mound, as Severino has a better ERA and more strikeouts in nearly an identical amount of innings. Corbin pitched once against the Mets already this season, and it went horribly, he gave up six earned runs in just 5.1 innings, including a Francisco Lindor home run. Severino pitched in that same game, and the Nationals only scored one run in the 9-1 win. Expect more of the same here.

Take the Mets on the runline.

Prediction: Mets -1.5 (+100)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


These two pitchers already met this season, and that game went over the total, mostly because the New York offense beat up on Patrick Corbin. This will happen again as the Mets' offense is at full strength, and the team is finally gaining some momentum heading to the All-Star Break. Corbin has just 68 strikeouts over 100 plus innings pitched, with 35 walks. This is not a ratio most teams would like to see from one of their main starters. He puts players on base and gave up two home runs the last time he faced the Mets. Severino is the better pitcher, but he has given up a combined 11 earned runs over his last two games and is likely to allow runs here as well. Washington has gone over in four of their last five games and will go over again here as they will not be able to slow down this New York attack.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 9.5

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Paul Biagioli , "Paul Biagioli"

Paul has been a sports fan his entire life, and was an All-Conference basketball player at The University of Scranton. He is currently a high school basketball coach and a mathematics teacher with a Master’s in Business Administration. This unique combination gives Paul the ability to find mismatches from a coach’s perspective while having the ability to analyze statistical data to spot advantages. Paul will provide you with an array of statistics, trends, and analytics to prepare for any match-up. Follow Paul for up-to-date analysis and all your betting needs. We are thrilled to have Paul on our team.