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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres,
7-11-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#911 Los Angeles
Dodgers -145
#912 San Diego
Padres 8

Wednesday, July 11, 2018 at 10:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Los Angeles Dodgers
K. MAEDA

49 - 42

5
W's
5
L's
3.28
ERA
1.24
WHIP

San Diego Padres
J. LUCCHESI

40 - 54

4
W's
4
L's
3.27
ERA
1.18
WHIP

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It’s the continuation of a series between NL West rivals down in southern California. The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the road as they travel to face the San Diego Padres in the third game of a four game set Wednesday night. Los Angeles rolled to an easy 8-2 victory in the opening game of the set Monday night. The pitching matchup for the second game of the set Tuesday night saw Rich Hill take the mound for the Dodgers against San Diego’s Eric Lauer. First pitch in the contest was set for 10:10 pm ET.

Los Angeles Dodgers Chasing NL West Top Spot

Los Angeles picked up the win in the opening game of the set for their sixth win in their last eight games. The Dodgers improved to 49-41 on the season and entered Tuesday a half-game behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West race: they were 1.5 games behind the Phillies and Braves in the wild card race. Justin Turner (two RBI) and Cody Bellinger (run) each had three hits for Los Angeles in the victory while Yasmani Grandal (run, RBI), Chris Taylor (run, RBI) and Andrew Toles (two runs, two RBI) each added two. Clayton Kershaw (3-4) earned the win as he threw six scoreless innings, allowing two hits with one walk and five strikeouts.

Kenta Maeda takes the ball and logs his 17th appearance and 16th start of the season for the Dodgers in this one. He is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.252 WHIP, 31 walks and 98 strikeouts over 80.2 innings of work this year. Maeda recorded a no-decision in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Angels. He fired 5.2 frames, allowing one run on three hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in a 3-2 Dodgers defeat. Maeda is 1-1 with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, five walks and 27 strikeouts over 19.2 innings in his last three starts. He makes his 12th career appearance and 10th start against the Padres in this contest. Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.78 ERA, a 1.158 WHIP, 12 walks and 66 strikeouts over 52.2 innings of action in those outings. He is 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, eight walks and 33 strikeouts over 29.1 innings in six career starts at Petco Park.

San Diego Padres Trying to Play Spoiler

San Diego was run over in the opening game of this set, falling for the seventh time in 10 games. The Padres dropped to 39-54 on the season, 12 games behind Arizona in the NL West entering Tuesday. San Diego finished with just five hits in the game and didn’t get on the board until the ninth inning. Wil Myers (run, RBI) was the lone Padre with two hits in the game, including his seventh homer of the season. Eric Hosmer scored the other run for San Diego when he scored on an error. Luis Perdomo (1-3) took the loss as he allowed six runs on 10 hits with three walks and no strikeouts over seven innings of work.

Joey Lucchesi gets the ball for the 14th start of his rookie season in this contest for the Padres. He comes in 4-4 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.184 WHIP, 24 walks and 65 strikeouts over 63.1 innings this season. Lucchesi took the loss in his last start, which came on the road against the Diamondbacks Friday. He threw 5.1 innings, allowing two runs on three hits with one walk and five strikeouts in a 3-1 San Diego loss. Lucchesi is 1-1 with a 1.26 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, seven walks and 14 strikeouts over 14.1 innings in his last three starts. He lost his only career start against the Dodgers, which came here on May 4: he threw five innings, allowing three runs on five hits with three walks and five strikeouts in a 4-0 Padres loss. Lucchesi is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.211 WHIP, 13 walks and 39 strikeouts over 38 innings in eight career starts at Petco Park.

Trends:

Los Angeles

  • Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record
  • Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
  • Dodgers are 12-3 in their last 15 during game 3 of a series

San Diego

  • Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 home games

The Dodgers are right on Arizona’s heels and they know that taking advantage of games against teams like the Padres is their best chance to catch the Diamondbacks. Getting a closer return to form by Kershaw helps and if the Dodgers can get healthy over the next few weeks, it should make for an interesting summer. San Diego isn’t going to be a threat for the postseason but they do have some pieces that contenders may be interested in. Look for the Dodgers, behind Maeda, to come up with the win here.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -155

Los Angeles is another team that is apparently kicking the tires on picking up Manny Machado from the Orioles. Of course, the asking price may be too much for Los Angeles to consider as the names being bandied about include Gavin Lux and Dustin May, who the Dodgers seem to have no interest in dealing. Whether they can find a palatable deal remains to be seen. San Diego has a few capable relief arms like Brad Hand and Kirby Yates among others, but will they pull the trigger on a deal? Also, will other guys like Myers, Tyson Ross or Clayton Richard find their way out of town before the month is out?

The over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 vs. a team with a losing record, 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and 9-4 in their last 13 Wednesday games. San Diego has seen the over go 9-3 in their last 12 at home, 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in Lucchesi’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0-3 in Maeda’s last seven starts on the road against the Padres, 4-0-1 in his last five starts against them. The teams have gone over the total in seven of their last nine meetings in San Diego and in 11 of their last 15 meetings overall. Given the low number here, this one likely goes over the total.

Over 7.5

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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