New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks - July 11, 2024

Author: Chris King Last Updated: July 11, 2024 Game Start: 6:50pm EST

It’s the conclusion of a series between a pair of AL East teams on the diamond as they collide in the Sunshine State. The New York Yankees are on the road as they finish off a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday evening. These teams opened their series Tuesday night at the Trop, with the Rays jumping in front early and picking up a 5-3 victory to draw first blood in the set. Will the Yankees break out of their swoon and get back on track ahead of the All-Star break or will the Rays keep them staggering here? This article was published before the conclusion of the middle game of the set at Tropicana Field Wednesday night.

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New York Hoping to Stop Recent Slide

New York lost their second straight, sixth in the last seven and has gone just 6-17 since June 13 as they were dropped in the opening game of this set Tuesday night. The Yankees entered Wednesday 55-38 and stood second in the AL East, three games behind the Orioles for the top spot. They held the top wild-card spot in the American League and stood 5.5 games clear of the Royals to remain in the playoff field. On Tuesday, New York finished with seven hits with DJ LeMahieu (run) the lone player with two in the contest. Ben Rice hit his fifth homer of the season in a losing effort. Carlos Rodon (9-7) took the loss as he allowed four runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts over four innings of work.

Nestor Cortes is on the hill for the Yankees on getaway day as he makes his 20th start of the season in this contest. He is 4-7 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.081 WHIP, 20 walks and 106 strikeouts over 111 innings of action this year. Cortes didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Friday at home against the Red Sox. He threw six innings, allowing one run on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in a game the Yankees lost 5-3 in 10 innings. In his last three starts, Cortes is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, two walks and 20 strikeouts over 17.1 innings of work. Cortes makes his 15th career appearance, 10th start, against the Rays in this contest. He is 2-4 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.123 WHIP, 16 walks and 55 strikeouts over 62.1 innings of work against them. Cortes is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.025 WHIP, four walks and 22 strikeouts over 26.1 innings in six career appearances, four starts, at Tropicana Field.

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Rays Looking to Climb in AL Playoff Picture

Tampa Bay had dropped three straight and four of five before picking up the win in the opening game of this series Tuesday night. The Rays entered Wednesday 45-46 on the season and stood fourth in the AL East, 12 games behind the Orioles for the top spot. They were 5.5 games behind Boston for the final wild card spot in the AL playoff picture. On Tuesday night, Tampa Bay plated four runs in the first and led the rest of the way. Amed Rosario (run) was the lone player for the Rays with two hits while Isaac Paredes hit his 15th homer of the season in the victory. Ryan Pepiot (5-5) earned the win as he threw 5.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits with three walks and seven strikeouts. Pete Fairbanks worked a scoreless ninth, allowing one hit with no walks and one strikeout, for his 15th save.

Shane Baz gets the ball for his second start of the season for the Rays in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.333 WHIP, one walk and six strikeouts on the year. Baz took the loss in his season debut, which came Friday on the road against the Rangers. He threw six innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with one walk and six strikeouts in a game the Rays lost 3-0. Baz makes his third career start against the Yankees in this contest. He has no record with a 2.45 ERA, a 1.227 WHIP, four walks and 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings of work against them. Baz is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, five walks and 26 strikeouts over 21 innings of work in four career starts at Tropicana Field. Prior to being activated from the IL, Baz was 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA, a 1.576 WHIP, 23 walks and 44 strikeouts over 39.1 innings in 10 starts with Triple-A Durham of the International League.

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Best Bets for New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Yankees have been in freefall over the last month, falling out of the top spot in the AL East race. With that said, Cortes still pitches well enough to keep his team in games and the Yankees have a deep, talented lineup that is capable of exploding on any given night. While Baz has a world of talent, the fact remains that he is still relatively unproven at the major league level as he has made just 10 starts in the majors. The Rays aren’t an overpowering offensive team despite having some solid players. In the end, the Yankees are desperate to get on track and that helps carry them to a victory here.

Prediction: New York Yankees -122

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


New York has seen the under post a 48-40-5 mark in their 93 games this season entering Wednesday. The Yankees are 5th in runs per game with 5.02 runs a night though that number climbs to an average of 5.35 runs per game on the road. New York has posted an average total of 8.98 runs per game this season and that number climbs to an 9.33 runs per game on the road. Tampa Bay saw the over hit in 44 of their 91 games, with five pushes, on the season entering Wednesday night. The Rays are 25th in runs per game with four entering Wednesday night’s action. Their average total going into Wednesday night was 8.71 runs per game. At home, Tampa Bay puts up 3.82 runs per game and they have an average total of 8.27 runs per contest. With the Yankees capable of breaking out at any moment, look for this game to wind up over the total.

Prediction: Over 7.5

Author Profile

Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.