Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Picks - July 11, 2024

Author: The Tower Last Updated: July 11, 2024 Game Start: 2:10pm EST

NL Central rivals will wrap up their third series of the season on Thursday afternoon. The Pittsburgh Pirates (44-47; 22-23 away) will not see American Family Field again in 2024 barring a postseason matchup. That park is home to the Milwaukee Brewers (53-39; 27-14 home), who opened this series with an embarrassing 12-2 loss. At 2:10 p.m. EST on Thursday, they can punctuate the series on a more positive note. Will the Brew Crew bounce back?

(Published before Tuesday's game)

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Pittsburgh's Exciting Young Pitchers

There's a breath of fresh air for Steel City baseball fans these days. Mitch Keller and rookie Jared Jones gave Pittsburgh optimism when the season started. Rookie phenom Paul Skenes got his big-league call and swept the city off its feet. His 11th career start will be the first against Milwaukee. Skenes earned an All-Star team selection thanks to a 2.12 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 1.011 WHIP. He'd be third in K% and second in K-BB% if he had enough innings pitched to qualify. Skenes has yet to allow more than three runs in a start. The bullpen behind him is 10th in FIP and 11th in WAR. Let's see if they can put on a show.

At the plate, the Pirates don't muster much. They're 18th in runs per game, averaging 4.20 for the season. Pittsburgh's lineup is 23rd in batting average, 25th in OBP, 23rd in slugging percentage, and 26th in strikeout rate. The Pirates have MLB's second-highest stolen-base percentage, but only 49 swipes (21st) to show for it. Can Pittsburgh build off Tuesday's series opener, or will the offense return to its middling ways?

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Milwaukee Mired in a Slump

As for the Brewers, they've lost four of five, letting the Cardinals creep into the NL Central race. Milwaukee needs to get back on track. Recent trade acquisition Aaron Civale can provide that spark by redeeming himself from a shaky first outing. His Brewers debut ended after 5.0 innings and four runs allowed off three homers. Mostly with the Rays, Civale brings a 5.18 ERA, 4.97 FIP, and 1.391 WHIP with him into this outing. Milwaukee's relievers are fifth in ERA despite ranking 22nd in FIP. Will they shake off Tuesday's miserable performance?

Scoring is how the Brew Crew tends to bash their opponents anyway. That was also missing in Tuesday's defeat. Typically, this team is good for 4.79 runs per contest, the ninth-most in the majors. The Brewers are fifth in batting average, second in OBP, and 14th in slugging. They have the league's highest stolen-base percentage, the second-most steals, and the third-highest walk rate. At home, Milwaukee's OPS jumps up to .754. Do they have more than two runs in them against Pittsburgh this time around?

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Best Bets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Pittsburgh serving as the road favorites against a team that is 8.5 games ahead of them in the division speaks volumes about how Vegas views Skenes. He is already an ace and an All-Star after 10 starts, thanks to an elite strikeout rate and 2.12 ERA to pair with it. Milwaukee's offense may have another rough performance.

All the Pirates have to do is score a few runs off Civale. Although that eluded them in June, Civale's 5.18 ERA this season indicates it probably won't happen again. Expect the Pirates to pick up the win on Thursday.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates -125

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

This total is low for a Brewers game especially considering their starter. However, Civale held Pittsburgh to one run as a Ray on June 23. The Pirates are 18th in scoring, so they aren't typically much of a threat.

On the other side, Milwaukee is up against Skenes, who hasn't coughed up more than three runs in a start yet. Pittsburgh's bullpen is strong too, ranking 10th in FIP. This should be a low-scoring affair. Take the under.

Prediction: Under 7.5

Author Profile

Andre Ifill , "The Tower"

Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.