Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Picks - July 11, 2024

Author: Michael Briggs Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 3:45pm EST

The Toronto Blue Jays will face the San Francisco Giants on Thursday at Oracle Park. The first pitch is at 12:45 p.m. PT.

The Giants are -115 moneyline favorites, and the game total is 7.5 runs scored.

Toronto (41-50 SU, 43-48 RL, and 43-46-2 O/U) is starting right-hander Kevin Gausman. The 33-year-old is 6-8 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 18 outings this year.

San Francisco (45-47 SU, 45-47 RL, and 50-39-3 O/U) is turning to righty Jordan Hicks. The 27-year-old is 4-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his 18 starts.

*Article published before the conclusion of Wednesday's game.

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Blue Jays' Gausman has excelled on road

Toronto dropped game one of the series, furthering its slide down the standings. The Blue Jays have lost six of their last ten games, dropping to last place in the A.L. East. Do they have a second-half run in them or will they be sellers at the trade deadline?

Toronto ranks 16th in OBP (.311), 21st in OPS (.682), 28th in home runs (81), and 24th in RBI (343). The Blue Jays pitching staff sports a 4.33 ERA (22nd) and 1.30 WHIP (21st) with 743 strikeouts (23rd) and 265 walks (10th). Opponents are hitting .252 (24th) against Toronto this season.

Gausman will take the mound for the Jays on Thursday afternoon in the Bay. The 12th-year pro is 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA in three career appearances versus San Francisco. He faced the Giants once in 2023, holding them to one run on three hits with 12 Ks in six innings. Gausman is 5-3 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the road (nine starts) in 2024. In his last appearance (July 5), he held Seattle to two runs on six hits with ten strikeouts in a six-frame defeat.

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San Francisco is a Wild Card contender

San Francisco is flirting with the .500 mark and in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the National League. Will it continue to climb the standings after the All-Star break?

The Giants rank 13th in OBP (.315), 15th in OPS (.704), 21st in home runs (92), and 14th in RBI (388). San Francisco's pitching staff has a 4.42 ERA (24th), 1.35 WHIP (25th), 775 strikeouts (17th), and 287 walks (18th). Opponents are hitting .260 (28th) against the Giants.

Hicks will toe the rubber for San Francisco tomorrow. In his last appearance, the sixth-year pro allowed three runs on eight hits with six Ks in a five-inning loss to Atlanta. He is 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine home starts (49.0 IP). Hicks is 0-2 with a 16.50 ERA in four career appearances versus Toronto. He faced the Blue Jays twice last season, giving up three runs in 1.1 combined frames.

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Best Bets for Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Betting Trends: San Francisco is 19-11 (63.3%) as home favorites, and Toronto is 10-19 (34.5%) as road underdogs.

The Giants slash .254 BA/.316 OBP/.392 SLG/.708 OPS at Oracle Park and .260/.322/.413/.735 in day games. Gausman has been inconsistent this season, and his Expected ERA (5.29) is 0.65 points higher than his actual ERA, suggesting he's due for negative regression. Opponents are hitting .264 against him, and he's given up 14 homers in 18 starts after allowing only 19 long balls in 31 starts last year. The Blue Jays' bullpen (29th in ERA with the most home runs allowed) is hardly reliable, as well.

The Blue Jays slash .226/.309/.366/.676 on the road and are off to a slow start to July (.202/.288/.321.610). Hicks has been pretty consistent no matter the venue or time of the game, holding five of his last six opponents to three or fewer runs. I predict he'll outpitch and outlast Gausman, riding early run support to a victory.

Prediction: Giants ML

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Betting Trend: The under is 18-11-1 (62.1%) when the Giants are home favorites this season.

Like Toronto, San Francisco isn't delivering at the plate in July, slashing .202/.288/.321/.610 and scoring 3.7 runs per game. While erratic at times, Gausman's road ERA is 4.88 points lower than his home ERA in the same number of starts. He has a 3.89 ERA in eight day game appearances, too. If the Giants don't get to him too early, he should be able to settle in and take pressure off the Blue Jays' bullpen.

Toronto is scoring just 3.3 runs per game this month. It was held to 4.0 runs per game in June, as well. Hicks has recorded at least five Ks in ten of his appearances this year. He has held 12 opponents to two or fewer runs and kept 11 opponents in the yard. With just 22 combined career ABs versus Hicks, I don't envision the Blue Jays breaking out offensively against the Giants' starting pitcher.

In a day game series finale between unfamiliar interleague opponents, I value a wager on the under at 7.5 total runs.

Prediction: Under 7.5

Author Profile

Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

I jumped into sports betting headfirst due to an irresistible call to action. I am a sports writer by trade, earning my B.A. in Journalism with a sports reporting concentration from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking "shop" with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid traps that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition assist or deter my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports gambling are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of accountability. A bettor is never as hot or cold as their best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to obtaining knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you will never feel caught up in the current stream. Sometimes you need to be counterintuitive. Risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me, you'll find that the reward justifies the wager!