Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#929 Los Angeles Dodgers 10.5 vs.
#930 Boston Red Sox -115
Friday, July 12, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by David Hess

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Friday evening on the MLB diamond and we will see the National League West grapple with the American League East as the Los Angeles Dodgers tangle with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. This is game one of a three-game series. This is a rematch of last year’s World Series, which the Red Sox won in five games.

Pitching Matchup: Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.76 ERA) will get the nod for the Dodgers and he will be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez (9-4, 4.65 ERA).

Dodgers Are Looking To Get Back On Track

That is a bit of an odd statement for a team that has the best record in the league, but they enter this game having lost their last three games in a row. The Dodgers won game one of their four-game set with the San Diego Padres at home, but then they went on to lose the final three and LA scored a total of six runs during the slide. They are now looking to get back on track, while also looking for revenge for losing to the Red Sox in five games in the World Series last year. The Dodgers averaged just 3.1 rpg in the world series last year and they hope to change that against a Boston staff that has been weaker than a year ago. Despite losing their last three games, the Dodgers still own a 13.5 game lead over the 2nd placed Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West.

In the finale on Sunday, the Dodgers lost by a score of 5-3 and providing much of their offense was Justin Turner (10) and Max Muncy (22), who both had solo homers. The Dodgers were led by Cody Bellinger in the first half, who hit .336 (2nd in the league) while crushing 30 homers (tied for 2nd), driving in 71 runs (2nd) and scoring 70 runs. Can anyone say Quadruple Crown? Is their such a thing? Not sure, but he should at least be the front-runner for the NL MVP. Taking the loss against the Padres was Ross Stripling, who allowed four ERs on six hits and no walks while striking out three in 4.1 innings of work. He is now 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA on the year. The Dodgers have gone 23-20 on the road and they are 1st in the league in run differential at +129.

Kenta Maeda will toe the slab for the Dodgers and he has gone 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 starts on the year, including 0-1 with a 3.32 ERA in his last three starts and 2-3 with a 5.52 ERA in nine starts on the road. Righties are hitting just .144 off of Maeda this year, while lefties are batting .264 against him. In his career, he has gone 19-16 with a 4.55 ERA in 60 games (49 starts) on the road and 7-5 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 games 914 starts) during the month of July, plus 5-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 14 games (12 starts) in interleague play. This will be his first regular-season meeting against the Red Sox.

The Dodgers have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 7th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.22 rpg, while also ranking 8th in hitting at .263 and 5th in homers with 145. On the mound, they have been strong as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in ERA at 3.39, while also ranking 1st in WHIP at 1.08 and 9th in K’s with 823. The bullpen ranks 8th in the league with a 4.05 ERA.

Sox Look To Build On First-Half Finish

The Boston Red Sox have not had the season that they have been hoping for so far, but they finished the first half strong and are still in play for at least a wildcard slot in the American League. The Red Sox had a miserable showing in their two games over in London against the Yankees, but they shook it off to win five of their last six, including their last four games in a row. The offense had been rather mediocre for most of the year, but it has been off the charts of late as they come in batting .329 and averaging a whopping 8.00 rpg over their last 10 games. The Sox have needed their offense to step up as the Pitching has been a mess of late, with Boston allowing 7.40 rpg over their last 10 games. Boston’s offense against the strong pitching of the Dodgers should be a fun matchup to watch.

In their last game, they completed a three-game road sweep of the Detroit Tigers with a 6-3 win. Boston fell behind 1-0 after one, but took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 2nd and never looked back. Xander Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez each had a hit and two RBIs to lead their attack. Vazquez’ hit was his 14th homer of the year. He has been on fire of late as he has hit .371 with four homers and 11 RBIs over his last eight games. He will have a tougher task against this tough Dodger’s pitching staff. Grabbing the win over the Tigers was David Price, who allowed just one ER on four hits and two walks while striking out six in 5.0 innings of work. He is now 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA on the year. Boston has gone just 20-22 at home for the year and they are 8th in the league in run differential at +58.

The Red Sox will trot out Eduardo Rodrigeuz and he has gone 9-4 with a 4.65 ERA in 18 starts on the year, including 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts and 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA in eight starts here at home. Righties have hit .260 off of Rodriguez this year, while lefties have hit .292 off of him. In his career, he has gone 18-13 with a 4.38 ERA in 57 games (53 starts) here at Fenway and 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA in 15 starts during the month of July, plus 5-2 with a 3.84 ERA in 12 interleague starts. Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in one career start against the Dodgers.

The Red Sox have been very good on offense so far as they come in ranked 3rd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.66 rpg, while also ranking 1st in hitting at .272 and 12th in homers with 131. On the mound, they have been below average as they rank 17th in the league in ERA at 4.99, while also ranking 16th in WHIP at 1.34 and 1st in K’s with 914. Their pen ranks 15th in ERA at 4.44.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Red Sox went on a roll right before the break, while the Dodgers were heading the other way. LA is 0-6 in their last six trips to Beantown and Kenta Maeda has struggled on the road with a 5.52 ERA so far. That is not good news for the Dodgers as they are about to face a Boston team that has averaged a whopping 8.00 rpg over their last 10 games. LA struggled to score right before the break and Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well at home so far. I will side with the hotter team with the better offense in this one.

Prediction: Boston

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will take a shot at the Under in this game. I feel that both teams will need a game or two to get their swings back after the long break. I am well aware of just how good these offenses are, especially the Boston offense right night, but I do not see this as a slugfest. Maeda has struggled on the road, but not many Boston hitters have faced him, while LA comes in struggling as they have scored just six runs over their last three games. The Under is 16-5 in Boston’s last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 9-3 in LA’s last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Under in this one.

Prediction: Under
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.