Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 Philadelphia Phillies -100 vs.
#954 Pittsburgh Pirates 10
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

The Pirates are stumbling out of the All-Star break and that could quickly make them sellers as the trade deadline approaches. Lyles is apparently available but he’s been tagged for 14 earned runs while recording 14 outs in his last two starts. Those numbers are hard to swallow for anyone looking for some stability, especially when you see that Lyles has a 10.27 ERA over 23.2 innings in his last six starts, jumping his ERA from 2.81 to the current 5.16 that he holds now. Arrieta was solid in his last outing against the Nationals as he pitches through bone spurs in his elbow. The Phillies are in the wild card picture and they get the upper hand in this one to take the opening game of the series.

The Phillies had some offensive fireworks in their four-game set with Los Angeles even with losing two of the games. Philadelphia put up 20 runs in the four games while giving up 37 though 16 of those came in a 16-2 blowout loss to open the set. Pittsburgh has totaled only 18 runs in their first six games out of the All-Star break: they scored more than three runs just twice in the series. The Pirates were in the midst of the NL Central race a week ago: can they find a way to turn things around or will they be sellers at the deadline?

The under is 4-0 in the Phillies’ last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central teams and 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central foes. Pittsburgh has seen the under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games following an off day and 5-2-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series. With the way that the Pirates have struggled to score runs in the second half, it’s hard to have a lot of faith in their production. This one is under the number.

Lyles has been a train wreck of late and it’s hard to have a ton of faith in him right now. He has given up as many earned runs (14) as he’s recorded outs in his last two starts. In his last outing, he couldn’t get out of the first inning as he was tagged for seven runs as the Cubs were patient, letting Lyles nibble (and miss) at the corners. Pittsburgh can’t afford to fall into holes and hope to dig out as there’s not enough proven commodities in the lineup. Philadelphia has the edge after five innings.

While the Phillies were fairly effective offensively in their series against the Dodgers, they get to face a pitcher who couldn’t buy an out if he wanted to. The Pirates have been floundering of late and the suspect pitching in the rotation has gotten the best of them. Arrieta isn’t as good as he was in 2015-17 with the Cubs but he’s still effective enough to keep his team in the game. Lyles has to prove that he can right the ship after going 0-5 in his last six starts. This is over the number after five innings as the Phillies take advantage of the Pirates’ questionable arms.