Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#955 St. Louis Cardinals -100 vs.
#956 Cincinnati Reds 10.5
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Altruda

If it was a pitcher other than Mahle making the start, there would be more consideration in taking the Reds for this game considering Wainwright’s road form, but it just feels like too much of a stretch for Mahle to snap out of his funk in this contest.

Wainwright also is coming off a good outing, and while he has only won back-to-back starts once this season, there is more confidence in him getting the job done than Mahle. Adding to the confidence in covering the run line is St. Louis’ hot start coming out of the All-Star break — four of its five wins have come by two or more runs.

This line has since come down to 10 runs at -115, so hopefully, you bought in early while the hook was available. In general, the under has been trending with both pitchers and teams, though Thursday marked the first time in five meetings (1-3-1) the over hit.

The under is 6-1 in Wainwright’s last seven starts and 5-1 in his last six versus division rivals. It is also 6-1 in Cincinnati’s last seven matchups with NL Central teams and 12-5-1 in the last 18 Reds home games. Mahle has also tried his best to be a stopper, with the under 5-2 in his last seven starts coming on the heels of a Reds loss.

After knocking around the Rockies in a pair of games, it appears the Reds offense has regressed to its mean with nine runs in losing its last three games. While Wainwright has had fleeting moments of success on the road, opponents have finished with five or more runs against the Cardinals just twice in his last eight starts.

This is more of an anti-Mahle pick than a pro-Wainwright one, but the Cardinals hurler at least has done his part in recent starts — he has helped St. Louis limit opponents to one or no runs in the first five innings in five of his last six starts. Wainwright also pitched the Cardinals to a 1-0 lead in the first five of his previous start in Cincinnati this year.

The Reds have trailed at the midway point in six of Mahle’s last seven starts and have done little to help him offensively with one or no runs in the prior six appearances before their five-spot in the loss to Colorado.

The five-inning under has been on a roll with the Reds, going 12-2-1 in their last 15 games and delivering in the last four. Mahle has been the outler in the sense the Reds are 1-1-1 with him on the mound in that span. But if one removes the Reds’ series at Coors, it would reveal they have failed to score more than three runs in the first five innings of their last 11 games.

The Cardinals have also had their early offensive issues, scoring three or fewer runs in the first five frames in 19 of their last 23 contests. While those numbers would normally warrant a “4” on the confidence scale, Wainwright’s road form and Mahle’s overall form along with the line’s step down from six runs leave it at “3.”

A contrarian pick to a degree that is based more on the pitchers’ first-inning track record home and away. Wainwright has been reached for a run in the opening frame just once in his last seven road starts, and Mahle has only given up runs in one of his seven outings in Cincinnati.

The counterweight is there has been a first-inning run in all of Cincinnati’s last six games and in five of St. Louis’ last seven. Wainwright did not give up a run in his outing in Cincinnati, and Mahle kept the Cards scoreless in the first of his start as well.