Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2963 Minnesota Twins vs.
#2964 Chicago White Sox
Monday, July 19, 2021 at 5:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of AL Central rivals kick off a series in the Windy City hoping to pick up a victory. The Minnesota Twins are on the road as they open a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox Monday afternoon in the first game of a doubleheader. Minnesota closed a three-game set on the road in the Motor City hoping to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Tigers. The Twins were blanked 1-0 in the opener and beaten 5-4 in eight innings in the nightcap of a doubleheader Saturday after being rained out Friday. Chicago played the rubber game of their three-game set at home against Houston Sunday afternoon. The White Sox rolled to a 10-1 win on Saturday to even the set. Chicago owns a massive 10-2 advantage in the season series, including taking two of three on the road in the most recent series July 5-7.

Minnesota Twins Fading Into Seller Territory With Trade Deadline Looming

Minnesota was swept in a doubleheader Saturday to start the second half of the season on a negative note. The Twins entered Sunday fourth in the AL Central, 16 games behind the White Sox, and stood 12.5 games behind the A’s for the second wild card spot in the American League. It seems more and more likely that the team could be a seller at the trade deadline. In the opener, Saturday, Minnesota mustered just two singles, one each by Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco. Charlie Barnes (0-1) took the loss on the mound as he allowed one run on four hits with one walk and one strikeout over 4.2 innings of work. The nightcap saw Nelson Cruz (run, RBI), Josh Donaldson (run, two RBI) and Andrelton Simmons (run) each have two hits, with Donaldson blasting his 14th homer of the season. Kenta Maeda didn’t factor in the decision as he threw five innings, allowing three runs on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts. Trevor Rogers (2-4) took the loss in relief as he blew the save: he allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits with no walks and two strikeouts in two-thirds of an inning.

The Twins have yet to officially name a starter for this one but the early reports point toward Michael Pineda getting the call for his 13th start of the year. He comes in 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA, a 1.239 WHIP, 15 walks and 55 strikeouts over 61.1 innings of work on the year. Pineda took the loss in his last start, which came at home July 7 against the White Sox. He threw 5.1 innings, allowing five runs on 12 hits with no walks and four strikeouts in a game the Twins lost 6-1. Pitching on the road this season, Pineda is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, five walks and 13 strikeouts over 13.1 innings in three starts. Pineda makes his 12th career start against the White Sox in this contest. He comes in 5-5 with a 3.78 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 13 walks and 62 strikeouts over 66.2 innings of work against them. Pineda is 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA, a 1.073 WHIP, 11 walks and 36 strikeouts over 36.1 innings in six career starts at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Chicago White Sox Cruising in AL Central Race

Chicago bounced back from a loss to start the second half of the season as they blew out Houston for their sixth win in seven games. The White Sox entered Sunday holding a comfortable eight-game advantage over the Indians in the AL Central race. Tim Anderson (two runs, two RBI) led Chicago with three hits in the win Saturday while Brian Goodwin, Jake Burger (two runs, two RBI) and Gavin Sheets (two runs, two RBI) each added two. Jose Abreu (his 16th), Anderson (his seventh), Zach Collins (his fourth), Burger (his first) and Sheets (his fourth) all went deep in the win. The power surge was more than enough for Lucas Giolito (8-6) to earn the win on the mound. He went the distance, allowing one run on three hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.

Lance Lynn is on the mound for the White Sox here as he makes his 17th start of the year in this contest. He comes in 9-3 with a 1.99 ERA, a 1.037 WHIP, 31 walks and 105 strikeouts over 90.2 innings of action this season. Lynn earned the win in his last start, which came July 7 on the road against the Twins. He threw six innings, allowing one run on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts in a 6-1 Chicago triumph. Pitching at home this season, Lynn is 6-2 with a 1.53 ERA, a 0.847 WHIP, 15 walks and 70 strikeouts over 59 innings in 10 starts. Lynn makes his fifth career start against the Twins in this contest. He comes in 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, a 1.227 WHIP, 12 walks and 20 strikeouts over 22 innings of work. Lynn is 8-4 with a 2.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 20 walks and 112 strikeouts over 89 innings in 15 career starts at Guaranteed Rate Field.

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Minnesota has struggled all season long despite having a talented roster and things aren’t looking favorable here. The Twins are playing their second doubleheader in three days here after playing one on Saturday, which is really going to tax their pitching. Minnesota hasn’t been great on the mound as it stands anyway with the team entering Sunday 27th in the majors in team ERA with a 4.96 mark on the season. That’s not favorable against a White Sox team that is more than capable of battering good pitching, much less mediocre and below arms like the Twins boast outside of Jose Berrios. Lynn has been terrific this season and beat the Twins soundly in his last start. Give the advantage to the White Sox as they prevail at home here.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox -1.5

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Minnesota has the highest over percentage in the league as they entered Sunday with the over posting a 56-32-3 mark. The Twins are 12th in the majors offensively by averaging 4.67 runs per contest. Minnesota is 28th in run prevention by allowing an average of 5.32 runs per contest, giving them an average total of 9.99 runs per game. Chicago has seen the over post a 45-44-2 mark in their games this season entering Sunday’s action. The White Sox stand fourth by averaging 5.13 runs per game while they are tied for fifth by allowing 3.81 runs a night. That gives the White Sox an average total of 8.94 runs per contest. When these two pitchers faced off less than two weeks ago, we saw a total of seven runs scored. With this being a seven-inning game as the opener of a doubleheader, run totals could be a little lower than normal. Lean toward this one ending up under the mark.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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