Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#3903 San Diego Padres vs.
#3904 Miami Marlins
Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of National League foes take to the diamond to open up a series down in South Beach. The San Diego Padres are on the road as they open up a four-game series with the Miami Marlins Thursday night. San Diego played a doubleheader with the Braves Wednesday to cap a three-game series after being rained out Monday. The Padres were beaten 2-1 in what became the opening game of the set Tuesday night. Miami looked to avoid a sweep on the road at the hands of the Nationals as they were defeated 6-3 in the middle game of the set Tuesday night. The Marlins took four of six meetings in the season series back in 2019, including taking two of three at home in the most recent series July 16-18, 2019.

San Diego edged Atlanta 3-2 in the first game of a doubleheader and was leading 5-4 in the fifth inning and was suspended due to rain. Miami lost two of three to the Nationals, but did win 3-1 in 10 innings on Wednesday night.

San Diego Padres Trying to Maintain Playoff Position

San Diego dropped their second straight as they were edged in a pitcher’s duel by the Braves on Tuesday night. The Padres entered Wednesday third in the NL West, 5.5 games behind the Giants for the top spot in the division. They held the second wild-card spot in the National League by five games over the Reds. San Diego finished Tuesday with just five hits as Wil Myers was the lone player with two in the contest. Tommy Pham knocked in Jake Cronenworth with a sacrifice fly in the fourth inning to account for the lone Padres run. Yu Darvish (7-4) took the tough loss as he allowed two runs on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts over 5.2 innings of work.

Blake Snell is on the mound for his 18th start of the season for the Padres in this contest. He comes in 3-3 with a 5.21 ERA, a 1.601 WHIP, 48 walks and 96 strikeouts over 74.1 innings of work this season. Snell didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came Saturday on the road against the Nationals. He threw four innings, allowing four runs on six hits with four walks and three strikeouts in a game the Padres went on to win 10-4. Pitching on the road this season, Snell has struggled, going 0-3 with a 9.08 ERA, a 2.182 WHIP, 32 walks and 41 strikeouts over 36.2 innings in 10 starts. Snell makes his fourth career start against the Marlins in this contest. He is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, eight walks and 22 strikeouts over 15 innings of work against them. Snell earned the win in his lone career start at Marlins Park, which came with the Rays on August 30, 2020. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts in a 12-7 Tampa Bay victory.

Miami Marlins Hoping to Get Back on Track

Miami dropped to 1-5 since the All-Star break as they were dropped for the second straight night in the nation’s capital by Washington. The Marlins entered Wednesday last in the NL East, 10.5 games behind the Mets for the top spot. In the NL wild-card race, the team stood 14 games behind the Padres for the second wild-card spot. Starling Marte (run) had two of Miami’s six hits in the game while Adam Duvall cranked his 21st homer of the year in a losing effort. Trevor Rogers didn’t factor in the decision as he threw five innings, allowing two runs on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Richard Bleier (2-1) took the loss as he allowed three runs on two hits with a hit batter, no walks and no strikeouts over two-thirds of an inning.

Zach Thompson is expected to take the mound for his seventh start of his rookie campaign in this contest for the Marlins. He comes in 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, nine walks and 33 strikeouts over 28 innings of work this season. Thompson didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came against the Phillies Saturday. He threw four innings, allowing two runs (none earned) on two hits with no walks and two strikeouts in a game the Marlins eventually dropped 4-2 in 10 innings. Pitching at home this season, Thompson is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP, two walks and 17 strikeouts over 11 innings of action in two starts. In his seventh career major league start, he pitches against the Padres for the first time here. Thompson is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP, two walks and 17 strikeouts over 11 innings of action in two career starts at LoanDepot Park.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This one is interesting as on paper, the Padres are the superior team but they were just 22-23 as the visiting team entering Wednesday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. Snell has been dreadful on the road this season with an average of 7.86 walks per nine innings. He has a 1.28 K:BB ratio on the road while opposing hitters boast a healthy .322/.451/.564 slash line against him. That’s a stark contrast from his numbers at Petco Park (3-0, 1.43 ERA, 1.035 WHIP, 16 walks, 55 strikeouts, opposing hitters posting a .239/.349/.419 slash line in seven starts totaling 37.2 innings) this season. Miami hits better at home (.245/.311/.371) than on the road (.225/.292/.376) on the year but they lack pop at home with only 35 homers in 43 games at LoanDepot Park. Thompson is solid but the fact remains that the bullpen is shaky and the Padres have too much power in the lineup. Look for San Diego to work past Snell’s shortcomings and pick up the win in the opener of this set.

Prediction: San Diego Padres ML

Full-Game Total Pick

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San Diego has seen the over post a 52-44-1 mark in their 97 games on the season. The Padres are 8th in the league by averaging 4.85 runs per game on the season. San Diego is sixth in run prevention by limiting opposing teams to 3.87 runs per contest. That gives the Padres an average total of 8.72 runs per game this season. Miami entered Wednesday with the under posting a 47-41-7 mark on the season. The Marlins are tied for 27th in runs per game with 3.92 runs a night this season. Miami stands 7th in run prevention as they give up an average of 3.96 runs per contest, giving them an average total of 7.88 runs per contest on the year. While the pitching numbers would say this would be a good bet on the under, the shaky numbers of Snell on the road and the Padres’ ability to put up hefty run totals have me leaning toward the over here.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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