Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4955 San Diego Padres vs.
#4956 Miami Marlins
Friday, July 23, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by David Delano

The Miami Marlins will host the San Diego Padres for the second game of a four-game series on Friday. Thursday's series opener was not yet complete at the time of this preview. The Miami Marlins came into this series with five losses in their last seven games, and the Padres have won three of their last five contest since the All-Star game.

Padres a contender for the NL Pennant

The Padres won the first game of a double-header over the Atlanta Braves 3-2 in a Wednesday road game and had the second game suspended in the middle of the fifth inning with the Padres holding a 5-4 lead. The makeup date for the second game is yet to be determined.

The Padres are now 56-42 and would be the second NL Wildcard team if the season ended today. The Padres are third in the NL West, 5.5 games behind the first-place San Fransico Giants. The Padres lead all MLB with 90 stolen bases and are ninth, scoring 4.8 runs per game. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a season worthy of MVP consideration with a .293 batting average, 29 home runs, 66 RBI, and 22 stolen bases.

San Diego’s pitching staff is fourth with a 3.47 ERA, and Joe Musgrove is scheduled to start on Friday. Musgrove is 5-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 19 games this season overall. In nine road appearances, Musgrove is 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA.

Marlins return home after seven-game road trip

The Miami Marlins ended a four-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the Washington Nations on Wednesday in 10-innings. Yimi Garcia picked up his 14th save of the season to secure the victory. The Marlins advanced to the postseason with a 31-29 record during the 2020 COVID-19 shortened season, but with a 41-55 record this season, currently last in the NL East, the Marlins could be unloading some of their veteran talents soon as the July 30 trade deadline approaches.

The Marlins are 22nd with a .233 batting average, 26th with 94 home runs, and 29th averaging 3.9 runs per game. Adam Duvall and Jesus Aguilar have led the team in the power department. Duvall leads the team with 21 home runs and has 67 RBI, and Aguilarhas 17 home runs and a team-best 68 RBI.

Miami’s pitching has been strong, ranking sixth in MLB with a 3.58 ERA. Rookie Zach Thompson, a 27-year-old 6’7 right-hander, will make his seventh start on Friday. Thompson is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA and has 33 strikeouts against nine walks in 28 innings of work.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Joe Musgrove started the season pitching far better than he has in any other season of his six-year career so far but has recently shown regression. Musgrove has a 7.36 ERA over his last four starts, and the Padres have also lost three of those games, with each of those losses coming against a team with a losing record. The Marlins have won five of their last seven home games against a team with a winning record and have excellent value in this spot. Zach Thompson is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his only two home starts and is yet to allow more than three runs in any of his six career games. I like the Marlins to get upset on Friday.

Prediction: Miami Marlins

Full-Game Total Pick

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Although Musgrove has recently struggled, he has a 3.52 road ERA and a 2.55 ERA in night games this season. Musgrove will also be facing a Marlins offense that is the fifth-worst home scoring team in baseball, averaging just under 4.1 runs per game. On the other side, Zach Thompson has been fantastic for the Marlins in his young career, and as a result, Miami has held its opponent to four runs or less in four of his last five starts.

Five of the last seven games that San Diego has been favored in have gone under the total, and nine of Miami's last 14 games against a left-handed starter have gone under as well. Expect to see a lower-scoring game that falls under the total here.

Prediction: Under
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Written By David Marotta , "David Delano"

David Delano is a Bowling Green State University graduate with a passion for sports, traveling, and music. David loves to handicap MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA, and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has worn several hats in the sports world, from being behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting, and coaching, along with servicing his clients as a sports handicapper.  We are glad to have David on our team, so be sure and follow along.