Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#911 Boston Red Sox 8 vs.
#912 Tampa Bay Rays -110
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 12:10pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the conclusion of an early week series between a pair of AL East teams down in the Sunshine State. The Boston Red Sox are on the road as they finish up a three-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Monday night, Boston rolled to a 9-4 victory to set themselves up for a potential series win. The pitching matchup for Tuesday night’s middle game of the series saw Chris Sale take the mound for the Red Sox against the Rays’ Yonny Chirinos. First pitch in that contest was scheduled for 7:07 pm ET.

Boston Red Sox Looking to Gain Ground in AL Wild Card Race

Boston bounced back from losing two of three to lowly Baltimore as they rolled to the win in the opening game of this set. The Red Sox entered Tuesday third in the AL East, 10 games behind the Yankees: they were two games behind Oakland for the second wild card spot. Boston got three hits from Andrew Benintendi (run, RBI) while Xander Bogaerts (two runs, RBI) and Marco Hernandez (two runs) each had two in the win. Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4) was rock solid as he picked up the win on the mound: he threw seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits with four walks and six strikeouts.

David Price is on the mound to make his 19th start of the season for the Red Sox in this contest. He comes in 7-3 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.202 WHIP, 25 walks and 106 strikeouts over 92.1 innings of work on the year. Price took the loss in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Orioles. He threw four innings, allowing six runs on eight hits with one walk and four strikeouts in an 11-2 Red Sox loss. Price is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, six walks and 17 strikeouts over 14 innings in his last three starts. He is 6-5 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, 30 walks and 118 strikeouts over 102.2 innings in 17 career appearances, 16 starts, against the Rays. Price is 37-30 with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.074 WHIP, 161 walks and 613 strikeouts over 628.1 innings in 94 career appearances, 92 starts, at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Trying to Stop Recent Struggles

Tampa Bay lost for the sixth time in seven games as they were blitzed early and couldn’t dig their way out of the hole. The Rays entered Tuesday second in the AL East, nine games behind the Yankees: they were one game behind the A’s for the second wild card spot. Guillermo Heredia (run), Mike Brousseau and Travis d’Arnaud (run, RBI) each had two hits for the Rays, who couldn’t overcome Boston’s seven-run third inning. Jalen Beeks (5-1) took the loss on the mound as he gave up eight runs on seven hits with two walks and two strikeouts over 3.2 innings of work.

Charlie Morton takes the hill for his 22nd start of the season for the Rays in this contest. He is 11-3 with a 2.61 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, 41 walks and 152 strikeouts over 124.1 innings of action this season. Morton took the loss in his last start, which came Thursday on the road against the Yankees. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing five runs on five hits with four walks and four strikeouts in a 5-1 Rays defeat. Morton is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, six walks and 20 strikeouts over 17.1 innings of work in his last three starts. He is 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA, a 1.286 WHIP, 11 walks and 34 strikeouts over 32.2 innings in six career starts against the Red Sox. Morton is 5-4 with a 3.19 ERA, a 1.064 WHIP, 21 walks and 103 strikeouts over 73.1 innings in 12 career starts at Tropicana Field.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This one is going to be a solid pitching matchup between a former ace of the Rays’ rotation and one of their current front-line starters. Tampa Bay has really struggled of late with six losses in seven games dropping them from the top wild card spot in the AL to chasing a spot. Boston has been up and down but they’re only one game behind the Rays entering Tuesday’s contest. With Price extremely solid pitching at the Trop in his career and the Red Sox being a bit more consistent offensively, look for Boston to come up with a tight win in a probable low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox +105

Full-Game Total Pick

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Boston has been effective at the plate this season and that is something that has helped carry them despite their inconsistent work on the mound. The Red Sox are second in the majors with 5.69 runs per game and lead the majors with a .272 team batting average. Tampa Bay has been terrific on the mound, ranking second in the majors with a 3.49 team ERA, third with a 1.16 WHIP and third with 996 strikeouts. The Rays need to be better than their 20th ranking with 4.56 runs per game. Can Tampa Bay find a way to beat their former ace and deliver a win here?

The under is 9-3 in the Red Sox’ last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 5-1 in Price’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 8-3 in Price’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has seen the under go 9-3-4 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Price’s last 5 starts vs. Rays and 6-2 in their last eight meetings. With two solid starters on the mound in this contest, you have to lean toward this one falling under the total.

Prediction: Under 8

First Five Innings Side Pick

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We know that Boston can score runs and, unlike some of their other spotty outings on the mound, they have Price going here. He’s been terrific pitching at Tropicana Field in his career, having spent the first years of his career with the Rays. Boston has a prolific lineup that is capable of putting crooked numbers on the board with regularity. Tampa Bay has posted a .240/.309/.451 slash line in the second half compared to their .254/.326/.423 line before the All-Star break. Boston has momentum and should hold the edge after five innings.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

First Five Innings Total Bet

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We know that both pitchers have been very effective at keeping the opposition in check this season. Morton is sporting an ERA well under three while Price is still under the league average by a healthy margin as well. Boston has the better offensive numbers but that is tamped down a bit by the fact that Morton has pitched so well this season. Given the way that the pitchers have controlled things this season when each has been on the mound, this one ends up under the number after five innings.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.