Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#901 Cincinnati Reds 10 vs.
#902 Milwaukee Brewers -155
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cincinnati Reds as the NL Central foes wrap up a three-game series Wednesday afternoon from Miller Park. The Reds will give the starting call to 25-year old right-hander Lucas Sims, and the Brewers will counter with 31-year old right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The Reds lead the season series 8-7.

Sims Inserted Into Rotation as Mahle Hits IL

Lucas Sims will make his fourth appearance and second start of the season in place of Tyler Mahle who was placed on the injured list. Sims tossed one shutout inning against the Cardinals in his previous action on July 21st. The third-year right-hander has conceded four runs on seven hits in his 9.2 innings pitched on the season. This will mark his first career meeting against the Brewers. Sims posted a subpar 4.56 ERA in Triple-A this season.

Yasiel Puig has done more damage against the Brewers than any other team this season, sporting a .385 average with four home runs and 12 RBI’s. The 28-year old right fielder is having a productive season, recording a .261 average with 22 home runs and 59 RBI’s. Puig has driven in 14 runs to go with a 1.063 OPS average on the month.

The Reds are only averaging 4.41 runs on the season, ranking them down at 24th in the Major Leagues. The Cincinnati pitching staff features a sharp 3.90 team ERA, positioning them fifth in the Majors. The Reds are 20-29 away from home entering Tuesday’s action.

Chacin Charged with 10th Loss of Season

Jhoulys Chacin will get the nod for the 19th time of the season, searching for his first win since late April. Chacin was roughed up in his latest effort, allowing seven runs (six earned) in 2.1 innings against the Diamondbacks, leading to the defeat to dip his record to 3-10. The 10-year veteran right-hander hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s numbers, posting a poor 5.67 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 85.2 innings of work of the season. Chacin hasn’t fared well against the Reds this season, conceding nine runs in 16 innings paired with a 1-1 record. He owns mixed numbers in his career against the Reds, filing a 3-4 record and a 4.14 ERA in 67.1 innings. Eugenio Suarez is 4 for 17 against Chacin, while Joey Votto is 9 for 28, and Scooter Gennett is 2 for 13.

The Brewers appear to have a budding young star in Keston Hiura who continues to shine, notching 12 hits along with seven RBI’s in his last seven games. The 22-year old rookie second baseman now features a .331 average with nine home runs and 23 RBI’s on the season. Hiura is 7 for 25 with two homers and two RBI’s against the Reds this season. Hiura sat out Monday with a minor injury and he is questionable for this one.

The Brewers have heated up at the plate, and they stand 15th in the big leagues with an average of 4.89 runs on the year. The Milwaukee pitching staff holds a 4.60 team ERA, pegging them 17th in the Majors. The Brewers feature a 30-22 home record heading into Tuesday.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I expect the Brewers to avoid the sweep in this one. The Brewers are fighting for first place in the NL Central, and they need to win these games against inferior opponents. Milwaukee finally has momentum back on their side as they have won five out of their last seven games overall entering Tuesday, while the Reds are stumbling, dropping five out of their last seven overall.

Furthermore, Reds’ starter Lucas Sims owns a terrible 5.75 ERA in his 83 career innings pitched at the Major League level, while Chacin is starting to find his groove, limiting his opposition to two or fewer runs in three out of his last four starts.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Total Pick

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This matchup has the ingredients for a high scoring game. The Brewers are swinging the bats well, plating at least five runs in seven consecutive games, and Sims is definitely not a reliable option on the mound for the Reds, plus the over is 4-0 in the Brewers’ last four games overall.

In addition, while I expect Chacin to contain the Reds, they have managed to score nine runs in 16 innings against the right-hander this season, and they are averaging a solid 4.78 runs against the Reds this season. The over is 4-0 in the Reds’ last four games in Milwaukee, and I expect that trend to resume in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I am taking the over on the Brewers team total offered by PointsBet. The Brewers bats are hot as they’ve been all season, and the Reds pitching hasn’t been nearly as sharp, allowing an average of 5.7 runs in their last ten games overall. Lucas Sims is a hittable pitcher, and I expect Milwaukee to exploit the young right-hander, especially considering Milwaukee has scored a combined 11  runs through the first two games of this series.

Prediction: Brewers Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am opting with the over on the three-inning total. Jhoulys Chacin usually runs into trouble early as he holds a terrible 7.22 ERA through innings 1-3. Moreover, the Brewers most productive stretch occurs in the first third of a game where they have scored 179 runs.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Over

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.