Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks - July 6, 2025

Author: Kevin V. Last Updated: July 5, 2025 Game Start: 1:35pm EST

The Cincinnati Reds (46-42, 4th NL Central) play the final game of a three-game series on the road Sunday against the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (51-37, 1st NL East). Cincinnati defeated Philadelphia 9-6 on Friday night in the first game of the series. The Reds have won two straight and trail first-place Chicago in the National League Central by seven games. With its loss to Cincinnati on Friday, Philadelphia has lost two of the last three, and the Phillies have had their lead at the top of the National League East cut to just a half-game over the New York Mets. Cincinnati will play without 10 pitchers as well as position players Connor Joe, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Callihan. Philadelphia will play without two pitchers and first baseman Carson Taylor. Make sure to read this in-depth Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. Baseball excitement starts here! Dive into our MLB picks for Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

This article was written before these two played on Saturday.

Cincinnati is playing average both at the plate and on the mound

The Cincinnati Reds are 9th in runs scored with 413. The Reds are 15th in each of the following: batting average at .248, on-base percentage at .320, and slugging percentage at .400. Elly De La Cruz leads Cincinnati in home runs with 18, and Spencer Steer is a distant second with 10. De La Cruz is the leader in RBI with 60. Gavin Lux and Steer are tied for second in RBI with 37 each. Cincinnati has hit 145 doubles, 11 triples, and 94 home runs for 248 extra-base hits in 88 games.

On the mound, Cincinnati is 9th in batting average against at .237, 11th in both WHIP at 1.24 and Quality Starts with 34, while 16th in ERA at 3.95. Brady Singer leads Cincinnati in wins with seven. Nick Lodolo leads the Reds in ERA for starters at 3.52 and strikeouts with 85. On Sunday, Cincinnati will hand the ball to Chase Burns. This rookie right-hander is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA, 2.44 WHIP, and 8 strikeouts.

Philadelphia is performing above average both at the plate and on the mound

The Philadelphia Phillies are third in on-base percentage at .330, fifth in batting average at .257, 11th in runs scored with 40, and 13th in slugging percentage at .405. Kyle Schwarber is Philadelphia's leader in home runs with 26. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos are tied for second with 11 home runs each. Schwarber is the leader in RBI with 60, and Castellanos is second with 49. Philadelphia has seven players with 30 or more RBI. The Phillies have hit 138 doubles, 13 triples, and 93 home runs for 244 extra-base hits in 88 games.

On the mound, Philadelphia is first in Quality Starts with 48, 12th in ERA at 3.76, 16th in WHIP at 1.27, and 18th in batting average against at .246. On Sunday, Philadelphia will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler. This season, the right-hander is 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts. Wheeler leads Philadelphia in wins, ERA for starters, and strikeouts.

Best Bets for Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Philadelphia has won eight of its last 11 games played at home while Cincinnati has lost five of its last seven games against a team from the National League East. Cincinnati won the opening game of this series on Friday, but before that lost two out of three to Boston. Philadelphia, before its loss on Friday to Cincinnati, defeated San Diego in two of three games. Cincinnati starter Chase Burns, who is just 22 years old and has made only two career starts, has struggled in both appearances. The right-hander has allowed 11 hits and eight runs in only 5.1 innings. Last time out, Burns did not get out of the first inning, recording just one out while allowing five hits and five runs. Philadelphia starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has been impressive in each of the last five outings, allowing just 20 hits and two runs in 31 Innings pitched, with Philadelphia winning four of the five.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies ML

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The first game of the series finished over with 15 runs scored, but Philadelphia will have its ace, Zack Wheeler, who has a 2.27 ERA and 0.92 WHIP,  on the mound. The total has finished under in six of Wheeler’s last nine starts on the mound for the Phillies. The total has finished under in eight of Philadelphia's last 11 games, and in four of the last six games Philadelphia has played against a team from the National League.

Prediction: UNDER
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Author Profile

Kevin Vallego , "Kevin V."

Kevin grew up in a sports-only household. Every afternoon was set to watching any sport that was on T.V. After years of watching sports he got introduced to the betting world, and soon stats, trends, and odds were Kevin's best friends. Now, almost 2 decades later, His life revolves around sports, writing about them, and betting on them. We are glad to have Kevin on our Winners & Whiners & StatSalt teams and you should be happy that we have him as well.