Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Picks - July 10, 2024

Author: Paul Biagioli Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 1:45pm EST

*This is the first game of a doubleheader.

Tuesday's game was rained out*

An interleague series in the Midwest takes place on Wedneasdady when the Kansas City Royals (49-43, 3rd AL Central) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (47-42, 2nd NL Central). The Royals have a day off on Monday after they dropped two of three games in Colorado against the Rockies. The Cardinals are finishing up a road series with the Nationals after taking two of three in a four-game set (Note: This article was published before the results of Monday's games). The Royals are starting Michael Wacha (3.74 ERA) while the Cardinals are going with Andre Pallante (4.00 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:45 EST from Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

(edit: Alex Marsh will pitch for KC in the first game)

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Kansas City Falls in Mile High

The Kansas City Royals are fighting for relevance in the AL Central, and losing a series to one of the worst teams in baseball will not help. The Royals just lost two of three games in Colorado against the Rockies, who are tied for the second-fewest wins in the MLB, behind only the White Sox. Kansas City is now nine games behind the Guardians for the lead in the AL Central, and three games behind the Twins for second place. In their last game against Colorado, Bobby Witt Jr. homered in the 9th inning to further grow their lead in the 10-1 win.

Witt was just named to the MLB All-Star Team, as he leads the team in all five major statistical offensive categories. He has 15 home runs, 61 RBIs, 119 hits, and has the team's top batting average of .324 and the top OBP at .372. His batting average is the third-best in the major leagues. The only other positional player who made the All-Star Team is Salvador Perez, he is listed as a catcher where he plays most of the time, but took first base against the Rockies. Perez has 14 home runs and 55 RBIs on the year, while batting .276 at the plate. Vinnie Pasquantino has taken the DH spot in recent games, he has 11 homers and 59 RBIs on the year while typically batting third in the order.

Michael Wacha will make his 16th start of the season in this game. He is a 33-year-old right-hander with a 5-6 record, but the team has won in his last two starts. His ERA is 3.74 to go with 75 strikeouts to 26 walks, with eight home runs allowed on the season. In his last start, Wacha pitched 6.0 innings allowing just one earned run in a win over Tampa Bay.

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Cardinals Hold Second Place

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently second in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by five games for the division lead. This type of deficit can be made up, but they also are second in the Wild Card standings, which would land them in the playoffs if the season ended today. The Cardinals will be playing in this game after finishing up a home series against the Nationals, where they won two of the first three games. In Sunday's game, the Cardinals got a home run and three RBIs from Wilson Contreras in the 8-3 win.

Contreras started at the DH spot and is a catcher by trade. He just hit his ninth home run to go with his 21 RBIs on the year and has a .271 batting average from the third spot in the lineup. The Cardinals did not get any positional players on the All-Star Team, as their only representative is relief pitcher Ryan Helsley. Their top home run hitter is Nolan Gorman, he is their second baseman with 17 home runs and 45 RBIs, but his batting average is just .206 which is why he bats seventh in the lineup. Alec Burleson bats second as the right fielder, he is second on the team with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs and is batting .281 at the plate.

Andre Pallante will be making his eighth start of the season, though he has nine additional appearances as a reliever. He has done well in his move to the starting lineup, as the team has won four of their last five games with him on the mound. His ERA is an even 4.00, to go with 36 strikeouts to 19 walks, with four home runs allowed on the year. In his last start, Pallante pitched seven innings allowing just one earned run in a win over the Pirates.

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Best Bets for Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The St. Louis Cardinals are the play here, as these two teams are trending in opposite directions. Kansas City held the second spot in the AL Central for much of the season, before succumbing to the Twins, who are now three games ahead of them in the standings. While the Cardinals were in fifth place for a short time in their division, before grabbing second place and putting themselves in playoff position. The Cardinals have a winning 24-18 record at home, and the Royals have a losing 18-25 record on the road. St. Louis is starting Pallante, who has made a smooth transition to becoming a full-time starter, as the team has won in four of his last five starts. Pallante has only allowed one total earned run over his last 12 innings, which came off a solo home run. He will be able to limit this Kansas City offense in this matchup, and help the Cardinals win the first game of the series at home.

Take the Cardinals to win.

Prediction: St. Louis Moneyline (-120)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Each team is sending out an experienced starter with an ERA of 4.00 or lower, this game will go under the total. Neither pitcher has given up double-digit home runs on the season, and Kansas City's Wacha has only given up eight over 84 innings pitched. Neither pitcher makes many mistakes, which will play a role as neither team is in the top 10 in run production. The Royals are the better team in that regard, ranking 12th in runs scored, while the Cardinals are back in 22nd. Even if the Royals are better at scoring runs, they have still hit the under in five of their last seven games, and perform worse on the road than at home. Andre Pallante has only given up one earned run over his last two starts, and will help to slow this KC offense. All signs point to an under here.

Take the under.

Prediction: Under

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Paul Biagioli , "Paul Biagioli"

Paul has been a sports fan his entire life, and was an All-Conference basketball player at The University of Scranton. He is currently a high school basketball coach and a mathematics teacher with a Master’s in Business Administration. This unique combination gives Paul the ability to find mismatches from a coach’s perspective while having the ability to analyze statistical data to spot advantages. Paul will provide you with an array of statistics, trends, and analytics to prepare for any match-up. Follow Paul for up-to-date analysis and all your betting needs. We are thrilled to have Paul on our team.