Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#973 San Diego Padres -100 vs.
#974 Colorado Rockies 12
Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres will resume a three-game divisional series Saturday night from Coors Field. The Padres will send 27-year old left-hander Joey Lucchesi to the hill, and the Rockies will answer with 27-year old left-hander Kyle Freeland. The Rockies won the 2019 season series 11-8 and San Diego won Friday's opener 8-7.

Lucchesi Looks to Improve Career Record vs. Rockies to 4-2

Joey Lucchesi will be attempting to rebound from a poor outing. Lucchesi conceded two runs on five hits in 3.2 innings against Arizona in his first start of the year on Monday night but managed to escape with the no-decision. The talented left-hander has good stuff and had a very encouraging 2019 season, recording a 4.18 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP to go with a 10-10 record in 30 starts. Lucchesi had issues with the Rockies last year as he was tagged with a 5.73 ERA in four meetings and he stands at 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA in eight career starts against the division foes.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is locked in early this season, collecting seven RBI’s along with .296 average and has notched a base hit in all but one game. The 21-year old shortstop is one of the best young hitters in the Majors and belted 22 homers along with 53 RBI’s in 84 games last year. Tatis Jr. registered a sizzling .386 average with eight RBI’s in 44 at-bats against the Rockies last season.

The Padres schedule is rather interesting. Each of their first seven series’ occurs against NL West foes while most clubs have already played against an interleague opponent. Overall San Diego has looked good so far highlighted by their offensive production.

San Diego's offense is hot and they are third in the big leagues with an average of 6.29 runs per game, placing them ninth in the Majors. They are sporting a 3.43 team ERA, good for third overall.

Kyle Freeland Stifles Rangers, Rockies' Pitching Shines

Rockies' manager Bud Black will have Kyle Freeland make his second start of the season in this one. Freeland earned the Quality Start by holding the Rangers to only two runs in six innings in his season opener start last weekend, leading to the victory. The young left-hander was outstanding in 2018 but took a major step back last year with an ugly 6.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to go with a 3-11 record in 104.1 innings pitched. He has posted mixed results in his career against San Diego, filing a 4.09 ERA and a 2-3 record in 44 head-to-head innings.

It’s been a bit of a slow start for Nolan Arenado but he is up against a team he has fared well against. The Rockies star drove in 12 runs against San Diego last season and also walked 11 times. Arenado is only hitting .222 with one RBI entering Friday’s action. He is consistently among the RBI leaders each season and smashed 41 homers along with 118 RBI’s in 2019.

Colorado’s pitching was their downfall in a disappointing 2019 season but so far their pitching has surprisingly been their greatest strength. They have been inconsistent at the plate but will inevitably find their groove.

The Rockies are only averaging 4.20 runs per game so far this season, ranking them 18th in the Majors. Colorado is second all of baseball with a dazzling 1.84 team ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I like the Rockies in this one. The Rockies are enjoying a hot start to the season highlighted by terrific pitching which has come as a surprise to many. They have registered four wins in a row entering Friday and swept a very good A’s team. The Rockies are a dangerous team when they are pitching so well considering they have such a potent offense. Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland opened his season by limiting the Rangers to only two runs in six innings.

Furthermore, Padres’ left-handed starter Joey Lucchesi was rocked by Colorado last season, recording a poor 5.73 ERA in four starts spread across 22 innings pitched, and the Rockies are very dangerous against lefties.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Full-Game Total Pick

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This has the makings of a high scoring tilt. Joey Lucchesi was exploited when pitching on the road last season. The southpaw filed an abysmal 6.22 ERA on the road and Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in the Majors. The over is also 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these rivals.

In addition, while I expect Kyle Freeland to do enough to lead his team to a win, he was often hit hard at Coors Field and finished the season with an ERA over six. The over is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockies’ last eight home games against the Padres.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The Rockies should be able to break through at the plate again in this game. They feasted on the Padres pitching last season, averaging over seven runs per game in the 19 meetings and scored five runs on 11 hits on Friday night. The Rockies fare well against left-handed pitching as they posted an OPS over eight against lefties in 2019 compared to a .770 OPS against righties.

Prediction: Rockies Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am going with the under on the three innings total. Both teams have not been able to generate offense early in games so far this season. The Padres have only pushed across eight runs through innings 1-3 in eight games, while the Rockies have been silent early on where they have plated four runs through innings 1-3.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.