Miami Marlins (53-58 SU, 60-51 RL, 57-47-7 O/U) vs Washington Nationals (66-45 SU, 54-57 RL, 55-52-4 O/U)
When: 7:05 PM EDT, Thursday, August 10, 2017
Where: Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
Lines: Washington -158/ Miami +148
A pair of National League East foes will square off tonight in the Nation’s capital as the Miami Marlins rumble with the Washington Nationals in the final game of their four-game set from National’s Park. Pitching Probables: Dan Straily (7-8, 3.77 ERA) gets the call for the Marlins in this one and the Nationals will counter with Tanner Roark (9-7, 4.82 ERA).
Marlins Continue To Play Well Against The Nats
The Miami Marlins are five games under .500 for the year and they are 13 games out of first place in the National League East, but they do have a winning record against the Nationals at 6-5 and they have now won three of their last four against them after taking game two of this series by a score of 7-3 on Tuesday. The Marlins are just the 3rd team this year that has a winning record against the Nats. The Pitching has been an issue for Miami this year, but they have now allowed a total of just 13 in their last five games against Washington. Vance Worley has struggled this year, but he had a strong outing in the win over the Nationals as he allowed just one ER on six hits in 6.0 innings of work. He is now 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA on the year and Miami is now 26-30 on the road. Toeing the slab for the Marlins in this one will be Dan Straily and he has gone 7-8 with a 3.73 ERA in 23 starts on the year, including 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts and 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 11 starts on the road. Straily has gone 6-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 17 career starts during August and he is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts against the Nationals, including 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts here at Nationals Park.
The Marlins have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 14th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.71 rpg, while also ranking 4th in hitting at .264 and 17th in homers with 136. On the mound, they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 19th in the league in ERA at 4.57, while also ranking 19th in WHIP at 1.39.
Nationals Have Been Inconsistent Of Late
The Washington Nationals are 21 games over .500 for the year and they have a 13.0 game lead in their division, but they have really been inconsistent of late.After falling 7-3 in game two of this series, the Nationals have now gone just 9-9 in their last 18 games and have failed to win more than two in a row over that stretch. They won’t catch the Dodgers for best record in the league and they can still win their division by a wide margin if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, but still, they don’t want inconsistent play as they hit the playoffs. The Nats are 1-2 against Pittsburgh, 0-3 against Texas and now 5-6 against the Marlins. They are the only three teams that have a winning record against them this year. Interesting to note that none of those three will probably be in the postseason. Washington is 30-23 here at home, compared to 36-22 out on the road. Tanner Roark gets the nod for the Nationals in this one and he has gone 9-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) on the year, including 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in his last three starts and 3-5 with a 5.46 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) here at home. Roark has gone 10-4 with a 2.67 ERA in 28 games (13 starts) in August, while against the Marlins he has gone 5-8 with a 4.27 ERA in 20 games (14 starts). He has gone 24-18 with a 3.29 ERA in 68 games (48 starts) here at Nationals Park in his career.
Washington has been a very good offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.44 rpg, while also ranking 3rd in hitting at .274 and 3rd in homers with 166. On the mound, they have been solid so far this year as they come in ranked 10th in the league in ERA at 4.14, while also ranking 8th in WHIP at 1.27.
- 8-18 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record
- 0-5 in Straily’s last five starts
- 41-20 in their last 61 during game four of a series
- 37-16 their last 53 home games in this series
The Nationals have had their issues with Miami this year and they have played better on the road than at home. Still, they need to put together a solid run and get out of their inconsistent play as they head towards the playoffs. Dan Straily has been one of the better starters for the Fish this year, but he has been struggling of late as he is 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts and he is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA on the road. Tanner Roark has really turned around his season around of late as he has a gone 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in his last three starts. He struggled in his last start against Miami, but that was on the road and he had a 1.77 ERA in his previous four starts against them, including a 2.31 ERA in his last two starts against them here at home. Good spot for the Nats to grab a solid win.
Pick: Washington -158
The Nationals are very inconsistent right now and the Marlins have not had a great year overall. Miami has had their success against the Nats as they are just one of three teams that have a winning record against them. A big reason for their success against the Nats has been the pitching, which has allowed just 13 total in the last five meetings. Dan Straily has a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts, but he also has a 3.08 ERA in his last two and he has allowed three ERs or less in three of his four career starts against the Nats. Tanner Roark had a bad outing against the Marlins earlier this year, but that was on the road and he has a 2.31 ERA against them in his last two starts here, while in his previous four overall against the Marlins he had a 1.77 ERA. Both teams have played high-scoring games when these pitchers have been on the mound, but I just don’t see it happening here.