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Padres vs. Reds,
8-10-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#901 San Diego
Padres
#902 Cincinnati
Reds

Thursday, August 10, 2017 at 12:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

San Diego Padres

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Cincinnati Reds

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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San Diego Padres (50-62 SU, 61-51 RL, 58-48-6 O/U) vs Cincinnati Reds (46-67 SU, 55-58 RL, 59-49-5 O/U)

When: 12:35 PM EDT, Thursday, August 10, 2017

Where: Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio

Lines: Cincinnati -147/ San Diego +137

Total: 8.5

MLB action on Thursday afternoon and the National League West will meet the National League Central as the San Diego Padres duke it out with the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio in the final game of a three-game series. Pitching Probables: Dinelson Lamet (6-4, 5.12 ERA) will get the nod for the Padres in this one and the Reds will counter with Luis Castillo (2-5, 3.64 ERA).

Padres Get One Back Against The Reds

The San Diego Padres have not had a good year at all and they are 29 games out of first in the Nationals League West and 13.5 games out of a wildcard slot, so they are playing for next year. They have been a horrible team on the road where they have gone just 21-35 on the year so far and they fell in game one of this series by a score of 11-3, but they were able to bounce back with a nice 7-3 win on Tuesday night. The Padres had allowed 7.00 rpg in their first four games of this trip, but they got a good outing from Luis Perdomo, who allowed just two ERs on seven hits in 6.0 inning of work. He is now 6-6 with a 4.81 ERA on the year. On offense, they were led by Jose Pirela, who had four hits and scored three runs and Yangervis Solarte, who had three hits, including a homer (12th), and three RBIs. They combined for seven of the 11 hits the Padres had. Taking the hill for the Padres in this one will be Dinelson Lamet and he has gone 6-4 with a 5.12 ERA in 12 starts in this his first year in the league, including 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts and 3-3 with a 6.03 ERA in seven starts on the road. Lamet is 1-1 with a 6.11 ERA in three day starts and he will be facing the Reds for the first time. He was 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA in eight starts at El Paso (AAA) this year.

The Padres have not been a good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 30th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.84 rpg, while also ranking 30th in hitting at .235 and 16th in homers with 138. On the mound, they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 22nd in the league in ERA at 4.66, while also ranking 17th in WHIP at 1.37.

Romano Is hit Hard By League’s Worst Offense

The Reds are in the same boat that the Padres are in as they are well out of both the race for a division title and a wild card berth. The Reds are currently 21 games under .500 for the year and they have gone just 27-31 here at home so far. They are just playing for next year and trying to get a feel for some of their younger players. One of them is Sal Romano, who really had a rough outing in the 7-3 loss to a Padres team that has the worst offense in the league. Romano allowed five ERs on nine hits in just 6.0 innings of work. He is now 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the year overall, including 1-3 with a 6.63 ERA here at home. Despite the loss, they are still 5-4 in their last nine games, so they have been playing a bit better of late. Toeing the rubber for the Reds will be Luis Castillo and he has gone 2-5 with a 3.64 ERA in nine starts in this his first year in the league, including 1-2 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts and 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts here at home. Castillo has gone 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in two day starts and he will be facing the Padres for the first time. He went 4-4 with a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts at Pensacola (AA) this year.

Cincinnati has been a below average offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 20th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.55 rpg, while also ranking 16th in hitting at .253 and 11th in homers with 155. On the mound, they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 30th in the league in ERA at 5.24, while also ranking 28th in WHIP at 1.44.

Trends

San Diego is:

  • 5-0 in Lamet’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record
  • 6-2 in Lamet’s last eight starts on grass

Cincinnati is:

  • 7-20 in their last 27 vs. the National League West
  • 9-21 in their last 30 during game four of a series

Neither of these teams are going to be in the postseason this year, so both will be looking to just build confidence for next year. The Padres have been a horrible road team this year, but they have been sneaky overall of late and I feel they have the edge on the mound in this one. Dinelson Lamet really struggled to start his career this year and he is 3-3 with a 6.03 ERA on the road, but he has really turned it around of late as he is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts and two of them have come on the road. He will be facing a Cincinnati team that has averaged just 3.67 rpg in their last six games. Luis Castillo has not been horrible this year, but he is still 2-5 overall and has gone 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA here at home. The Padres are a live dog in this one, especially with the Reds being 4-12 in their last 16 home games.

Pick: San Diego +137

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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