Kansas City Royals (57-55; 51-56-5 O/U) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (57-56; 55-51-7 O/U)
MLB: Thursday, August 10, 2017 at 7:15pm EST
Line: St. Louis -139/Kansas City +129
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Kansas City Royals as the clubs conclude a four game home-and-home series Thursday night from Busch Stadium. The Royals will give the nod to 34-year old right-hander Jason Hammel, and 30-year old right-hander Lance Lynn will take the mound for the Cardinals. St. Louis has taken the first two games of this series.
Hammel Eyes Third Straight Quality Start
Jason Hammel will make his 23rd start of the season, aiming for another Quality Start. Hammel conceded three runs in 6.1 innings to the Mariners in his previous effort, and was tagged with the loss to drop his record to 5-9. Overall, the veteran right-hander has pitched well over his last several starts, however he still owns a 4.73 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 125.2 innings logged. The Cardinals have given him trouble as he possesses a weak 5.68 ERA and a 4-6 record in 58.2 career innings. Matt Carpenter is 3 for 24 with two RBI’s against Hammel, whole Jedd Gyorko is 1 for 8, and Yadier Molina is 10 for 24 with five RBI’s. Melky Cabrera is off to a great start with his new team, collecting six RBI’s over his last six games. The 32-year old right fielder is having a terrific season, sporting a .298 average with 14 home runs and 62 RBI’s. Cabrera has driven in eight runs in 28 career games against the Cardinals.
The Royals are only scoring an average of 4.35 runs per game, ranking them 23rd in the Majors, and are hitting .253 as a team. The Kansas City pitching has been decent, posting a 4.26 team ERA, positioning them 14th in the Major Leagues.
Lynn Continues to Shine in Win Over Reds
Lance Lynn will take the mound for the 24th time of the season, hunting for his third straight win. Lynn was solid once again in his previous start, limiting the Reds to one run in six innings, and came way with the win to boost his record to 10-6. The veteran right-hander has been dominant over his last seven starts and is now sporting a terrific 3.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 132.2 innings of work. He’s had a hard time in three career starts against the Royals, conceding 13 runs in 18.1 innings to go with an 0-1 record. Melky Caberera is 2 for 10 against Lynn, while Mike Moustakas is 3 for 9 with three RBI’s, and Alex Gordon is 6 for 10. Paul DeJong continues to come through at the plate, belting another two home runs along with four RBI’s over his last five games. The 24-year old shortstop is having a terrific season, hitting .285 with 16 home runs and 36 RBI’s. DeJong has collected two RBI’s in this series.
The Cardinals are swinging the bats well and are currently averaging 4.58 runs per game, ranking them 17th in the Majors, and are hitting .257 as a team. The St. Louis pitching has been outstanding, featuring a 3.77 team ERA, good for fifth in the Major Leagues.
The Kansas City Royals are:
- 7-15 in Hammel’s last 22 starts.
- 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.
- 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games against a right-handed starter.
The St. Louis Cardinals are:
- 5-1 in Lynn’s last 6 starts.
- 4-0 in Lynn’s last 4 starts against a team with a winning record.
- 5-1 in their last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
I have to go with the Cardinals with Lynn on the hill. Lynn has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors as of late, posting a minuscule 1.48 ERA over his last seven starts, and he now features a terrific 2.58 ERA at Busch Stadium. Furthermore, Hammel has struggled against the Cardinals throughout his career, recording a poor 5.68 ERA in 58.2 innings, so I am very confident the Cardinals can do enough offensively to notch the home win.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -139
Hammel has been very steady over his last six starts, and Lynn continues to silence his opponents with regularity. Hammel has allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts, and the under is 4-1 in his last five road starts. Lynn has only conceded a combined seven runs over his last seven starts, and the Royals are not a high-scoring team, plus the under is 7-0 in Lynn’s last 7 starts overall.