The Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves will kick off a three game series Friday night from SunTrust Park in Atlanta. The Brewers will hand the ball to 22-year old right-hander Freddy Peralta, and the Braves will give the call to 27-year old right-hander Kevin Gausman. The Brewers took three of four against the Braves last month.
Peralta Attempts to Silence Braves Again
Freddy Peralta will make his 11th start of the season, eyeing his second straight win. Peralta was sharp in his previous start, limiting the tough Rockies’ lineup to only two runs in six innings, leading to an 8-4 triumph. The young right-hander is having an outstanding rookie season, registering a 3.54 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP accompanied with a 5-2 record in 53.1 innings of work. Peralta was outstanding in his lone meeting against the Braves, holding them to one run on three hits in six innings in a 5-4 win.
Travis Shaw is locked in right now, belting three home runs along with seven RBI’s in his last four games. The 28-year old third baseman is only hitting .243 on the year, however he has belted 23 homers along with 68 RBI’s. Shaw is 2 for 11 with one RBI against the Braves this season. The Brewers are currently averaging 4.42 runs per game, ranking them 19th in the Major Leagues. The Milwaukee pitching staff features a strong 3.81 team ERA, pegging them seventh in the Majors.
Gausman Charged with Loss in Braves Debut
Kevin Gausman will make his 23 start of the season and his second start as a member of the Braves. Gausman was decent in his Braves’ debut on August 4th, allowing three runs in five innings against the Mets, leading to the loss to bring his season record to 5-9. The sixth-year right-hander was having a subpar season with the Orioles before being traded to Atlanta. He is carrying a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 129 innings pitched on the year. This will mark his first career meeting against the Brewers.
Freddie Freeman has been a tough out against the Brewers this season, going 7 for 15 with a .556 on base percentage. The 28-year old first baseman continues to produce at a high level, posting a .314 average with 18 home runs and 70 RBI’s on the season. Freeman is hitting .286 with only two RBI’s on the month. The Braves are currently averaging 4.77 runs per game, ranking them seventh in all of baseball. The Atlanta pitching staff boasts a 3.83 team ERA, pegging them 12th overall.
The Atlanta Braves are:
- 4-12 in their last 16 Friday games.
- 5-11 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.
The Milwaukee Brewers are:
- 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Braves.
- 7-3 in Peralta’s last 10 starts.
- 4-1 in their last 5 games in the first game of a series.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am siding with the Brewers in this contest. Freddy Peralta continues to shine on the mound, allowing three or fewer runs in seven out of his last eight starts. Furthermore, Peralta already limited the Braves’ lineup to only one run in six innings in a 5-4 Brewers’ win earlier this season. In addition, Kevin Gausman has not been reliable this season, and he has allowed a combined 30 hits in his last 21.2 innings pitched.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -115
Full-Game Total Pick
The Brewers had a productive series against the Braves last month, and I expect more of the same in this matchup. Milwaukee accumulated a combined 26 runs in four games against Atlanta last month, and the over is 4-0 in their last four games overall. Atlanta is much more productive at home this season, and they have scored a combined 20 runs in their last three home games, plus the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games against the NL Central.
Prediction: Over 8.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Brewers are swinging the bats well, scoring at least five runs in five out of their last seven games, and they are up against a subpar pitcher in Kevin Gausman. Milwaukee has also scored at least five runs in three of their four games against the Braves this season.
Prediction: Milwaukee Team Total: Over 4.5
First Five Innings Side Pick
I am taking a chance with the Braves on the first inning line. Freddy Peralta has allowed seven runs in his 10 innings pitched in the first inning this season, and the fourth inning has been his worst inning with an opponent OPS of .999. Atlanta’s best chance to score runs is early considering Milwaukee has a lights out bullpen.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves -105
First Five Innings Total Bet
The Brewers first three innings have been their best this season, accumulating 173 RBI’s in that three inning span. Furthermore, Kevin Gausman has conceded 18 runs on 35 hits in 21.2 innings pitched in the third inning this season, and he owns a weak 4.80 ERA through innings 1-3.
Prediction: Over 4.5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
I am taking the Braves to score first. Atlanta features a terrific .272 team batting average in the first inning this season, and as mentioned, Peralta is having trouble in the first inning this season.
Prediction: Braves to Score First -160