Friday evening bases and a pair of teams from the National League East will square off as the New York Mets grapple with the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida in game one of a three-game set. The Mets lead the season series 5-4. Pitching Probables: Zack Wheeler (6-6, 3.89 ERA) will toe the slab for the Mets and the Marlins will counter with Jose Urena (3-11, 4.66 ERA).
deGrom Finally Gets Some Run Support
The Mets haven’t crushed many teams this year, especially at home, where they just can’t score, but they were able to lay the smackdown on the Reds on Wednesday. New York won that game by a score of 8-0 and ended up taking two of three in the series, but they are still 18 games under .500 for the year and in 4th place in the National League East. Jacob deGrom has been one of the best starters in the league this year, but he just doesn’t have the record to show it as he mates just haven’t been able to score for him. Well, they finally did in the win over the Reds. Brandon Nimmo and Austin Jackson each had three hits and three RBIs to lead the attack. deGrom allowed just four hits and a walk while striking out 10 in 6,o innings of work in the game. He has now gone 6-7 on the year, but with a strong 1.77 ERA. He has got just 3.61 rpg of support. With a bit more support and he would clearly be in line for a Cy Young award this year. The Mets have averaged 4.73 rpg and have allowed 5.09 rpg on the road.
Taking the hill for the Mets will be Zack Wheeler and he has gone 6-6 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts on the year, including 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in nine starts on the road. In his career, he has gone 16-9 with a 3.25 ERA in 45 starts on the road and 7-3 with a 2,71 ERA in 12 starts during the month of August, while against the Marlins he has gone 3-2 with a 2.08 ERA in nine starts, including 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA in five starts here at Marlins Park.
The Mets have been poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 25th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.92 rpg, while also ranking 30th in hitting at .229 and 23rd in homers with 114. On the mound, they have been below average so far as they enter this contest ranked 19th in the league in ERA at 4.36 while also ranking 17th in WHIP at 1.33 and 14th in K’s with 981. The pen for the Mets ranks 26th in the league with a 4.85 ERA.
Marlins Are Back In Last Place In The East
The Miami Marlins did break out of the basement in the National League East for a little time, but they are now back in it after eight of their last nine games. They just took on the St Louis Cardinals in a three-game set and after taking game one of that series, they fell in the final two. On Wednesday, they fell by a score of 7-1 as their offense and pitching struggled. They have one of the worst offenses in the league and have now put up just 14 runs over their last seven games while allowing 5.56 rpg over their last nine. The Marlins just had three hits in the loss to the Cards and driving in their lone run was Miguel Rojas. Taking the loss in the game was Trevor Richards, who allowed three ERs on four hits and two walks while striking out seven in 5.1 innings of work to fall to 3-7 with a 3.98 ERA. The Marlins have averaged 3.52 rpg and have allowed 4.25 rpg here at home.
Getting the nod for the Marlins will be Jose Urena and he has gone 3-11 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 22 starts on the year, including 1-8 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts here at home. In his career, he has gone 8-22 with a 4.14 ERA in 55 games (40 starts) here at Marlins Park and 4-5 with a 5.56 ERA in 11 starts during the month of August, while against the Mets he has gone 3-4 with a 3.49 ERa in 11 games (seven starts).
The Marlins have been a poor offensive team so far as they come in ranked 29th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.73 rpg, while also ranking 22nd in hitting at .241 and 29th in homers with 94. On the mound, they have been poor as they enter this contest ranked 26th in the league in ERA at 4.80, while also ranking 25th in WHIP at 1.40 and 22nd in K’s with 922. The Marlins have a pen ERA of 5.19, which is 29th in the league.
- 3-12 in Urena’s last 15 starts following a team loss in their previous game
- 3-12 in Urena’s last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game
New York is:
- 5-0 in Wheeler’s last five starts overall
- 5-0 in Wheeler’s last five starts on grass
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This is a battle for last place in the National League East and I feel that round one will go to the Mets. Jose Urena has been awful this year and even worse of late as he has gone just 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in his last four starts. He is also just 1-8 with a 4.29 ERA at home and the Marlins are just 4-10 in his home starts. Zack Wheeler has been very tough of late as he has gone 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last seven starts, including 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts and will now take on the worst offense in the league, plus we note that he is 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA in five career starts in this park. This all sets up for a very nice New York road win.
Prediction: New York -115
Full-Game Total Pick
The Mets have been a really bad offensive team at home, but on the road, they have been much better. Still, Marlins Park is not a hitter’s paradise and Urena has allowed three ERs or less in his last four starts against the Mets. The Marlins have the worst offense in the league and that will not change as they are facing Zack Wheeler, who has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts overall and a 1.34 ERA in five career starts in this park. He has owned the Marlins and should do so again. The Under is 5-1-1 the last seven games in this series and 4-1 in Wheeler’s five road starts against the Fish and that seals the deal for me.
Prediction: Under 7.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Marlins won get much in this game off of Zack Wheeler, who has not allowed an ER in his last two starts and has a 1.34 ERA in five starts here at Marlins Park in his career. Jose Urena has struggled of late, but much of the met offense is currently on the DL and marlins park is not a great hitters park. Don’t look for a lot of runs, hits or errors in this one.
Prediction: Under 24.5 Runs/Hits/ Errors
First Five Innings Side Pick
Jose Urena has been awful at home this year and he has really struggled overall of late. on the other side, we have Zack Wheeler, who hasn’t allowed an ER in his last two starts and has a 2.12 ERA in his last seven overall. I do not see Miami having the lead after five in this one.
Prediction: New York -120
First Five Innings Total Bet
This one is a bit tricky and I don’t like it nearly as much as the full game under. Wheeler has been hot for the Mets of late and will be taking on the worst offense in the league. Miami won’t score much early. The Mets have a better offense on the road than at home, but Marlins Park is not a great hitting park and Urena has a 3.49 ERA against the Mets in his career. look for a low scoring start to this game.
Prediction: Under 3.5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Zack Wheeler has a 4.71 ERA in the first inning this year, but he hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in his last four starts, plus he is facing the worst offense in the league. Jose Urena has a 4.50 ERa in the first, but he is not facing a very good offense in this one. Look for no scoring in the first inning.
Prediction: No Score In The First — -145