New York Mets (50-61; 63-37-11 O/U) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (42-69; 48-54-9 O/U)
MLB: Friday, August 11 2017 at 7:05pm EST
Line: New York -108/Philadelphia -102
The New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies as the division rivals continue a four game series Friday night from Citizens Bank Park. The Mets will hand the ball to 27-year old right-hander Seth Lugo, and the Phillies will reply with 24-year old right-hander Nick Pivetta. The Mets lead the season series 6-3.
Lugo Concedes Another Two Homers in No Decision
Seth Lugo will make his 12th appearance and 11th start of the season, aiming for win number six. Lugo allowed three runs in 5.2 innings to the Dodgers in his previous start, and finished with the no decision in a game the Mets lost. The young right-hander has been roughed up a few times, however overall he has been decent, sitting at 5-3 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 63.1 innings logged on the season. He conceded three runs in five innings in his lone career start against the Phillies which came last season. Yoenis Cespedes has been productive against the Phillies this season, notching a hit in nine of 32 at bats with three home runs and seven RBI’s. The 31-year old left fielder is having a mediocre season, hitting .270 with 12 home runs and 31 RBI’s. Cespedes has recorded four RBI’s this month.
The Mets have slowed down offensively and are now averaging 4.67 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Majors, and are hitting .248 as a team. The New York pitching continues to flounder, carrying a 4.95 team ERA, positioning them down at 29th in the Major Leagues.
Pivetta Targets Second Win Over Mets this Season
Nick Pivetta will get the nod for the 17th time of the season, looking to rebound from a rough outing. Pivetta served up eight runs (six earned) in 2.2 innings to the Rockies last time out and was tagged with the loss to drop his record to 4-7. The rookie right-hander has been hit-hard on quite a few occasions this season, and now owns a poor 5.89 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 84 innings of work. He faced the Mets last month and was terrific, holding them to one run in seven innings and recorded the win. Cesar Hernandez has been swinging the bat well in the leadoff position, collecting a hit in 11 of his 32 at bats this month, good for a .344 average. The 27-year old second baseman is having a solid season, sporting a .293 average with six home runs and 20 RBI’s in 79 games played. Hernandez is 7 for 28 against the Mets this season.
The Phillies are only averaging 4.01 runs per game, ranking them down at 28th overall, and are hitting .248 as a team. The Philadelphia pitching has been mediocre, recording a 4.50 team ERA, placing them 16th in the Major Leagues.
The New York Mets are:
- 9-1 in Lugo’s last 10 starts against a team with a losing record.
- 13-4 in Lugo’s last 17 starts overall.
- 6-1 in their last 7 Friday games.
The Philadelphia Phillies are:
- 0-4 in Pivetta’s last 4 starts in the second game of a series.
- 21-49 in their last 70 games against the Mets.
- 20-46 in their last 66 games against a right-handed starter.
I am siding with the Mets in this contest. Pivetta is struggling right now, posting a poor 7.59 ERA over his last six starts, and he has only notched one home win all season, so I expect some runs from the Mets. Furthermore, Lugo has allowed three or fewer runs in five out of his last six starts, and so I am confident he can contain the Phillies offense. The Phillies are only averaging 3.3 runs over their last ten games, making the Mets a strong play in this one.
Pick: New York Mets -108
Pivetta is really struggling on the mound for the Phillies, and Lugo has allowed several home runs as of late. The Mets should have no problem plating runs against Pivetta who has been very shaky as of late, and the over is 4-1 in Pivetta’s last five starts overall. Lugo has now conceded six homers over his last three starts, and the over is 7-1-1 in his last nine starts overall.