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Red Sox vs. Yankees,
8-11-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#965 Boston
Red Sox
#966 New York
Yankees

Friday, August 11, 2017 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Boston Red Sox

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

New York Yankees

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

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Boston Red Sox (65-49 SU, 59-55 RL, 50-60-4 O/U) vs New York Yankees (60-52 SU, 60-52 RL, 57-52-3 O/U)

When: 4:10 PM EDT, Friday, August 11, 2017

Where: Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York

Lines: New York -118/ Boston +108

Total: 9.5

Heated American League East rivals will square off this evening in the Bronx as the Boston Red Sox duke it out with the New York Yankees in game one of their three-game series from Yankee Stadium. Pitching Probables: The Red Sox will toss out Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 4.08 ERA), while the Yankees will send out Jamie Garcia (5-8, 4.49 ERA).

The Red Sox Are On Fire

The Boston Red Sox have been very hot of late as they have won their last eight games in a row after topping the Rays by a score of 8-2 on Wednesday night. The Red Sox now have a four-game lead over the Yankees as they start to pull away in the American League. The Red Sox have been led by their pitching for most of the year, but the offense has now caught up and that makes them a very dangerous team. The Red Sox have averaged 6.20 rpg in their last 10 games and have been led by Eduardo Nunez, who has hit .419 with four homers, six doubles and 12 RBIs in his first 11 games with the team. He may have been the most important trade to a team that has happened this year. The pitching has remained strong of late as they have a 1.53 ERA in their last five games.  The Sox have gone 29-29 on the road for the year. The Red Sox will send out Eduardo Rodriguez in this one and he has gone 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) on the year, including 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in his last three starts and 3-3 with A 4.59 ERA in nine games (eight starts) on the road. Rodriguez has gone 2-4 with a 3.66 ERA in 11 starts in his career in August and he is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees, including 2-1 with 1.80 ERA in three starts here at Yankee Stadium.

The Red Sox have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 10th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.76 rpg, while also ranking 5th in hitting at .263 and 27th in homers with 116. On the mound, they have been very strong so far as they come in ranked 3rd in the league in ERA at 3.66, while also ranking 4th in WHIP at 1.23.

Offense Wakes Up On Road Trip

The New York Yankees have been one of the better offensive teams this year, but that offense was struggling, until recently. The Yankees still have a game in Toronto on Thursday night, but in their previous three games they scored 21 runs, including 11 on Wednesday night in their 11-5 win. The pitching has remained strong for them as they have a 3.31 ERA in their last 10 games, including a sparkling 1.66 ERA from their pen over that stretch. Still, this is a team that needs their offense for them to be successful and if they hope to make a deep run in the postseason then they will need their offense to be on point with their pitching. A big reason for much of their 2nd half struggles on offense has been the fact that Aaron Judge has just five homers and 12 RBIs in his last 24 games after totaling 30 homers and 66 RBIs through his first 84 games. They need him to return to his play of the first-half. New York is now 4.0 games out first in the AL East, but they are 32-20 at home and they currently hold down the top spot in the wild card standings. Toeing the rubber for the Yankees will be Jaime Garcia and he has gone 5-8 with a 4.49 ERA in 20 starts on the year, including 0-1 with a 9.64 ERa in one start as a member of the Yankees. This is his 3rd team he is playing for. He started at Atlanta and then went on to Minnesota for one start, before coming over to New York. Garcia has gone 11-10 with a 4.30 ERA in 33 games (25 starts) during the month of August. This will be his first start against the Red Sox and his first-ever appearance here at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees have been a strong offensive team so far as they come in ranked 4th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.23 rpg, while also ranking 6th in hitting at .261 and 8th in homers with 162. On the mound, they have been very solid as well as they come in ranked 6th in the league in ERA at 3.79, while also ranking 3rd in WHIP at 1.22.

Trends

Boston is:

  • 3-9 their last 12 games in this series
  • 1-6 their last seven games here in New York

New York is:

  • 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record
  • 48-20 in their last 68 home games following a road trip of seven or more days

The Red Sox are on fire right now, but still, can they have been very average on the road and the Yankees have been strong at home. Something has to give in this series. Eduardo Rodriguez has been struggling of late as he has gone 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in his last three starts and he has gone just 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA on the road. He has gone 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last five starts against the Yankees, but I just don’t see him having that effort in this game. Jaime Garcia gets the nod for the Yanks and will be pitching in this park for the first time in his career, so I look for him to have a solid outing. Look for the Yankees to grab a big win in game one of this series.

Pick: New York -118

This is a huge series for both teams as the Yankees are looking to close the gap in the American League East, while the Red Sox are looking to expand it. The Red Sox have been hot offensively of late, while the Yankees are starting to turn their offense around and both starters have struggled of late as Rodriguez has a 5.13 ERA in his last seven games, while Garcia has a 6.26 ERA in his last seven and has struggled in his first two starts with the Yankees, but still I don’t see this as a high-scoring game. This whole series will have a playoff atmosphere to it and that should lead to some low scoring games. Rodriguez has a 1.80 ERA in three career starts in this park, while Garcia is capable of a big outing and should be highly motivated for his first-ever start here at Yankee Stadium. I look for a 4-3 type game in this one and the clincher is the fact that the Under is 6-1 in Rodriguez’s last seven starts against the Yankees.

Pick: Under 9.5

Confidence: 3

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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