Cincinnati Reds (47-67; 60-49-5 O/U) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (59-57; 53-57-6 O/U)
MLB: Friday, August 11, 2017 at 8:10pm EST
Line: Milwaukee -171/Cincinnati +161
The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cincinnati Reds as the division rivals open a three game series Friday evening from Miller Park. The Reds will give the call to 31-year old right-hander Homer Bailey, and the Brewers will turn to 28-year old right-hander Jimmy Nelson. The Brewers currently lead the season series 7-3.
Bailey Looks to Rebound from Disastrous Start
Homer Bailey will get the call for the 10th time of the year, looking to rebound from a brutal outing. Bailey surrendered a whopping ten runs in 3.1 innings to the Cardinals in his previous start, and was tagged with the loss. The veteran right-hander has really struggled since returning to action in late June, posting an abysmal 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP to go with a 3-6 record in 42.2 innings pitched. He took on the Brewers in late June and served up six runs in three innings, and now sits at 5-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 23 career starts against the division rivals. Ryan Braun is 13 for 39 with eight RBI’s against Bailey, while Hernan Perez is 2 for 4, and Jonathan Villar is 1 for 5. Adam Duvall has shown his power against the Brewers this season, belting four homers along with six RBI’s. The 28-year old slugger is having another strong season, hitting .267 with 25 home runs and 77 RBI’s. Duvall has driven in five runs along with two homers over his last seven games.
The Reds are currently averaging 4.58 runs per game, ranking them 17th in the Major Leagues, and own a .254 team batting average. The Cincinnati pitching continues to struggle, posting a Major League worst 5.22 team ERA.
Nelson Spins Gem in Win Over Rays
Jimmy Nelson will take the mound for the 24th time of the season, targeting his fourth consecutive Quality Start. Nelson was nearly flawless in his previous performance, limiting the Rays to one run in eight strong innings and finished with the no decision. The 6-foot-6 right-hander is having an outstanding season, sporting a 3.24 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP accompanied with a 9-5 record in 141.2 innings logged. He has silenced the Reds this season, allowing only three runs in 14 innings, and now owns a 5-3 record with a 4.41 ERA in 67.1 innings against Cincinnati. Adam Duvall is 7 for 15 with one RBI against Nelson, while Joey Votto is 8 for 24 with six RBI’s, and Zack Cozart is 4 for 20. Herman Perez has dominated the Reds pitching this season, going 11 for 26 with three home runs and 12 RBI’s. The 26-year old left fielder is having a decent season, hitting .263 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI’s. Perez owns a .250 average this month to go with two RBI’s.
The Brewers are currently averaging 4.57 runs per game, ranking them 18th in the Major Leagues, and feature a .249 team batting average. The Milwaukee pitching has been solid, sporting a 4.12 team ERA, good for 10th in the Majors.
The Cincinnati Reds are:
- 1-4 in Bailey’s last 5 starts against the Brewers.
- 0-4 in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
- 7-16 in their last 23 road games against a right-handed starter.
The Milwaukee Brewers are:
- 5-0 in Nelson’s last 5 home starts.
- 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a road winning percentage below .400.
- 5-0 in Nelson’s last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record.
I am taking the Brewers on the run line in this contest. Bailey just surrendered 10 runs in his previous start and the Brewers tagged him for six runs earlier this season, plus he owns a weak 4.93 career ERA against Milwaukee. Furthermore, Nelson has limited the Reds to three runs in 14 innings this season, and he features an outstanding 2.43 ERA at Miller Park. All of Bailey’s losses this season have come by at least two runs, so I am confident taking the Brewers on the run line.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Bailey has been awful this season and these two rivals are usually involved in some high scoring battles. Bailey was roughed up by the Reds earlier this season and he has conceded 67 hits in his 42.2 innings pitched, plus the over is 4-1 in Bailey’s last 5 starts overall. Nelson does own a 4.41 career ERA against the Reds, and the over is 7-1-1 in his last nine starts against the Reds, so they should plate a few runs, however I expect Milwaukee’s offense to play a big role in the over.