Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#907 New York Mets 9.5 vs.
#908 Atlanta Braves -130
Tuesday, August 13, 2019 at 7:20pm EDT
Written by David Hess

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Major League Baseball action on Tuesday and a pair of teams from the National League East will square off as the red-hot New York Mets grapple with the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, Georgia. This is game one of a three-game series. The Braves lead the season series 6-4.

Pitching Matchup: The Mets will be sending out Zack Wheeler (9-6, 4.20 ERA) and he will be opposed by Max Fried (13-4, 4.11 ERA).

Mets Look To Start A New Streak

The New York Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star Break and they went into their game on Sunday with the Washington Nationals riding an eight-game winning streak. The Mets will now be looking to start a new streak as they lost to the Nats by a score of 7-4 on that day. The Metas have still gone 15-2 in their last 17 games and have moved past the Phillies and into 3rd place in the National League East. The Mets are eight games out of first in the NL East, but they are also just 1.0 game out of the second NL Wildcard slot. New York being in the hunt for a wildcard berth is not something that many saw coming as they were 10 games under .500n back on July 12th. The Mets have this series with the Braves and then they get a bit of a breather with three in Kansas City. After that, it’s a bit tough as they have three at home against Cleveland, three at home against the Braves and three at home against the Cubs.

It’s a good thing that the upcoming stretch against the latter three teams is at home as the Mets have gone just 27-36 on the road, compared to 34-21 at home. Jacob deGrom took a no-decision in the loss to the Nats on Sunday after allowing three runs (0 earned) on four hits and a walk while striking out seven in 5.0 innings of work. Taking the loss was Robert Gsellman and he is now 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA on the year. Jeff McNeil led the attack on offense with two hits and two RBIs. McNeil is currently 2nd in the league in hitting at .337.

The Mets will trot out Zack Wheeler in this one and he has gone 9=-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 22 starts on the year, including 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last three starts and 4-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 11 starts on the road. Righties are hitting .246 off of Wheeler this year, while lefties are hitting .257 off of him. In his career, he has gone 24-14 with a 3.61 ERA in 61 starts on the road and 12-4 with a 2.03 ERA in 19 starts during the month of August. Wheeler has gone 6-4 with a 3.42 ERA in 12 starts against the Braves in his career, including 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in three starts against them here at SunTrust Park.

The Mets have been an above-average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 14th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.82 rpg, while also ranking 13th in hitting at .253 and 13th in homers with 176. On the mound, they have been above average as they come in ranked 13th in the league in ERA at 4.39, while also ranking 16th in WHIP at 1.34 and 8th in K’s with 1097. The bullpen ranks 26th in the league with a 5.13 ERA.

Braves Have Been Inconsistent Of Late

The Atlanta Braves just took on the Miami Marlin in a four-game set and they split the four games with the worst team in the National League. The Braves are now 5-5 in their last 10 games and they must face one of the hottest teams in the league. It’s a good thing that the Braves still have a six-game leading over the Nationals in the NL East and an eight-game lead over the Mets. Still, the Braves want to get back to the consistency that helped them build their lead in the NL East and knocking off a hot team like the Mets would be a good way to get started. The pitching has been solid for most of the year, but it has struggled of late as the Braves have allowed 6.13 rpg over their last eight games. That may not be good news as they are about to face a Mets team that has averaged 6.20 rpg over their last 10.

The Marlins have the 2nd worst offense in the league and the Braves allowed them to pile up 24 runs in the six games. That’s 6.00 rpg allowed for those that don’t have a calculator around. LOL. The Braves won the finale on Sunday by a score of 5-4, despite falling behind 3-1 in the first inning. The Brave eventually too a 4-3 lead with three runs in the 4th and never looked back after that. Mike Foiltynewicz took the win after allowing four ERs on eight hits and two walks with seven Ks in 6.0 innings of work. He is now at 4-5 with a 6.24 ERA on the year. Ronald Acuna Jr. (33) and Ender Inciarte (5) each went deep in the contest. The braves have gone 32-25 here at home for the year, compared to going 38-25 on the road.

Toeing the rubber for the Braves will be Max Fried and he has gone 13-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 24 games (22 starts) on the year, including 3-0 with a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts and 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 10 starts here at home. Righties are hitting .287 off of him, while lefties are hitting .239 off of him this year. In his career, he has gone 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 19 games, 13 starts) here at SunTrust Park and 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA in eight games (three starts) during the month of August. Fried has gone 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in eight games (four starts) against the Mets in his career.

The Braves have been a very good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.39 rpg, while also ranking 7th in hitting at .263 and 5th in homers with 190. On the mound, they have been average as they come in ranked 15th in the league in ERA at 4.43, while also ranking 21st in WHIP at 1.40 and 16th in K’s with 1025. The bullpen ranks 13th in the league with a 4.36 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This is actually a bad spot for both teams, which could make the pick a bit tricky. Normally when a team has a lengthy winning streak broken they will follow it up with another loss and that is a negative for the Mets. The Braves come home off a seven-game road trip and normally in a team’s first game back they will struggle. What to do?  Zack Wheeler has been on fire of late with a 1.33 ERA over his last three starts, but he is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in three starts here at SunTrust Park in his career. Max Fried pitches well at home and while he has a 4.32 ERA over his last three starts, he is 3-0 in those games, plus Fried has a 2.49 career ERA against the Braves. I will also re-visit the road trip theory above. Yes, the Braves are off a road trip, but they have also had a day off to get acclimated to home life again. The Mets are one of the hottest teams in the league, but they are also still just 27-36 on the road and 1-4 in their last five games here in Atlanta. Take the Braves in this important National League East battle.

Prediction: Atlanta -132

Full-Game Total Pick

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Normally I would look to the Under in a huge divisional battle, but that will not be the case in this one. The Mets have finally gotten their offense going as they have averaged 6.20 rpg over their last 10 games and they have put up a respectable 4.78 rpg on the road. The Braves have been one of the best offensive teams in the league for most of the year and they have averaged 5.80 rpg over their last 10 games, plus 5.40 rpg here at home.  We do have what looks like a solid pitching matchup on the mound, but Wheeler has a 6.11 ERA in this park in his career and Fried has a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts overall. The Over is 9-2-2 in Wheeler’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game and 18-6-2 in Atlanta’s last 26 games following an off day. The offenses will win the battle in this one.

Prediction: Over 9.5
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.