The Philadelphia Phillies (63-49, 59-52 RL, 55-50-6 O/U) collide with the New York Mets (73-40, 63-49 RL, 57-47-8 O/U) in an NL East showdown on Saturday night. The Phillies will send ace Aaron Nola to the hill. The dominant Jacob deGrom is making his third start of the season for the Mets. The Mets lead the season series 9-4.
Nola Starts, Phillies Earn Another Series Win
The Phillies will have Aaron Nola take the mound for the 23rd time of the season. Nola was sharp again in his latest effort, limiting the Nationals to just one run in six innings, and was credited with the win to bring his record to 8-8. The veteran right-hander continues to excel, conceding just one run in two consecutive outings, and features a 3.17 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 144.2 innings. Nola has limited the Mets to just seven runs in 16 innings this year, but is 0-2 in those three performances and has posted a 9-5 record with a solid 3.21 ERA in 23 career meetings against the rivals.
The Phillies' strong play resumes. They have won seven of their last eight and have not lost a series all month. They are winning these games without their best player in Bryce Harper. Philly has also won four out of their last five road bouts. They could not complete the sweep against the Marlins this week.
Nick Castellanos has done some of his best work this season against the Mets, collecting eight RBIs along with an .809 OPS. The 30-year-old right fielder is having a bit of a frustrating season but has been much better recently and has 54 RBIs and a .678 OPS on the season. Castellanos has logged five RBIs and a strong .762 OPS on the month.
The Phillies are scoring an average of 4.73 runs per game, good for seventh overall. The pitching staff is carrying a 3.76 team ERA, placing them eighth in the big leagues.
DeGrom Shines, Mets Resume Dominance
Jacob deGrom is on the hill on Saturday. DeGrom held the Nationals to one run in five innings in his season debut earlier this month and put on a show last time out. He had a perfect game intact into the sixth inning but ended up giving up two runs in 5.2 innings against the Braves in a 5-2 Mets win. He struck out 12 batters. The Cy Young winner has looked great in his first two starts this season and should have a slightly longer pitch count in this outing. deGrom has shined in his career against the Phillies, sporting an 8-1 record and a 2.29 ERA.
The Mets have the second-best record in the big leagues and will finally qualify for the postseason. They won four of five against the Braves last weekend followed by a dominating sweep of the Reds this week to improve to 8-1 in their last ten games.
Brandon Nimmo has been a tough out against the Phillies this season registering a .324 average with four RBIs and a. .970 OPS. Nimmo often goes unnoticed but continues to produce, logging a remarkable .342 average this month, and now has accrued 40 RBIs and a .777 OPS on the season.
The Mets continue to shine at the plate and are averaging 4.86 runs, landing them third. The pitching staff enters with a 3.54 team ERA, positioning them fifth in the Major Leagues.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
The Mets are the hottest team in the Major Leagues. They now feature a better record than the Yankees after winning eight out of their last ten games overall. These wins are convincing, winning by two or more runs in each of their last nine victories.
Furthermore, today is Jacob deGrom’s third start of the year. The ace was incredible in his latest performance. He had a perfect game in the fifth inning and struck out 12 batters in his 5.2 innings of work. Buck Showalter had deGrom on a pitch count. He went 78 pitches and should have a longer leash. Also, the former Cy Young winner limited the Phillies to just two runs in 12 innings last season.
Full-Game Total Pick
I expect a pitcher's duel in this divisional bout. Let's not forget about Phillies’ starter, Aaron Nola. The right-hander is having a spectacular season. He has conceded either zero or one run in four out of his last five outings and is especially comfortable on the road where he features a 2.24 ERA.
In addition, deGrom will be his usual dominant self. He has accrued a 2.29 career ERA against Philly and his slider is simply unhittable. The Mets are not giving up many runs. They have conceded two or fewer runs in five out of their last six bouts. The under is also 3-0-1 in the Phillies' last four games in the second game of a series.