Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#901 Los Angeles Dodgers -220 vs.
#902 Miami Marlins 7.5
Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 3:05pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the three-game series finale Thursday afternoon from Marlins Park. The Dodgers will hand the ball to 25-year old right-hander Walker Buehler, and the Marlins will counter with 28-year old left-hander Caleb Smith. The Dodgers have won all five games in the season series.

Buehler Spins Another Gem, Targets Sixth Road Win

Walker Buehler will get the nod for the 23rd time of the season, aiming for his third consecutive Quality Start. Buehler was outstanding last time out, firing six scoreless innings against the D-Backs, although he did not receive any run support and finished with the no-decision. The talented young right-hander is having a spectacular season, sporting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP paired with a 10-2 record in 137.1 innings of action, Buehler recorded seven shutout innings against the Marlins earlier this season, and he has limited Miami to five runs (four earned) in 17 career innings. Jorge Alfaro is 2 for 4 against Buehler, while Garrett Cooper is 1 for 3, and Brian Anderson is 3 for 8.

Cody Bellinger is only hitting .200 in August, although he is still managing to produce with five taters and 10 RBI’s on the month. The 24-year-old star is having a career-year, compiling a .316 average with 39 homers and 90 RBI’s. Bellinger is 2 for 9 with four walks against the Marlins this season.

The Dodgers have sealed the top spot in the NL West, and to their credit they are showing no signs of complacency this month, winning 11 out of their last 13 games behind outstanding pitching. The Dodgers are battling with the Yankees and Astros for the best record in baseball.

The Dodgers potent lineup stands fifth in the big leagues with an average of 5.48 runs per game. The L.A. pitching staff leads the Majors with a stifling 3.29 team ERA. The Dodgers are 32-25 on the road entering Wednesday.

Smith Clobbered by Braves in Second Straight Loss

Caleb Smith will make his 20th start of the season in this one. Smith was rocked in his previous start, conceding six runs on 10 hits in 4.2 innings against the tough Braves lineup, leading to his second straight defeat. The third-year left-hander hasn’t been quite as sharp recently, although overall he is having a strong year, logging a 3.71 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP accompanied with a 7-6 record in 106.2 innings of work. Smith has allowed four runs in his three career innings pitched against the Dodgers.

Starlin Castro has fared well against the tough Walker Buehler, notching 3 hits in 9 at-bats which equates to a .333 average. The 29-year old second baseman is red-hot, accumulating eight RBI’s in his last five games, and he is hitting .260 with 11 big flys and 54 RBI’s on the season.

The Marlins no longer rank last in the Majors in runs scored and they managed to score 21 runs in four games against Atlanta this past weekend. Miami does have some talented young hitters and a good mix of young pitching.

The Marlins are averaging 3.64 runs on the season, ranking them last in the Major Leagues. The Miami pitching staff owns a decent 4.56 team ERA, positioning them 16th in the Majors. The Marlins are carrying a 24-38 home record.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am usually willing to give the Marlins a hard look, but not against the Dodgers with Buehler on the mound. The rising star tallied seven shutout innings against the Marlins earlier this season, and he continues to dazzle, allowing only one run in his last 15 innings, so I see no reason why he won’t come through with another terrific performance.

Furthermore, Marlins’ starter Caleb Smith has squandered nine runs (seven earned) in his last two starts spread across only 9.2 innings. The Dodgers continue to roll, winning 11 out of their last 13 games and they are averaging a phenomenal nine runs in four games against Miami this season entering Wednesday.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am very confident in the under. The Marlins are going to have trouble generating offense in this matchup. They are the lowest-scoring team in the NL up against the best pitching in the Majors. Buehler has allowed two or fewer runs in four out of his last five starts, and the under is 10-4 in the Dodgers’ last 14 games overall.

In addition, Caleb Smith is generally reliable when pitching at Marlins Park. The left-hander features a very good 3.46 ERA in his nine home starts, and his 1.11 WHIP shows he doesn’t give up many hits. The under is 9-3 in the Marlins’ last 12 home games against the Dodgers, and I expect that trend to resume in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I expect Walker Buehler to record the win and improve to 11-2 in this one. You can find this prop bet on PointsBet. Buehler recorded an easy win against the Marlins last month in a game the Dodgers won 9-0. The right-hander has limited the fish to only four earned runs in 17 career innings, and their lineup is only hitting a combined .211 against him. Also, Miami has only managed to score two runs in the first two games of this series.

Prediction: Walker Buehler to Record the Win

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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The under on the Marlins three-inning team total is a wise option. The Marlins lowest-scoring stretch occurs in the first three frames where they have only plated 127 runs. To add to this point, Walker Buehler features a stifling 2.32 ERA through innings 1-3 this season.

Prediction: Marlins Three Inning Total Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.