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Nationals vs. Padres,
8-17-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#957 Washington
Nationals
#958 San Diego
Padres

Thursday, August 17, 2017 at 10:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Washington Nationals
E. JACKSON

71 - 47

3
W's
2
L's
3.3
ERA
1.07
WHIP

San Diego Padres
J. CHACIN

54 - 66

11
W's
8
L's
4.13
ERA
1.27
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Washington Nationals (71-46 SU, 58-59 RL, 56-56-5 O/U) vs San Diego Padres (53-66 SU, 64-55 RL, 64-49-6 O/U)

When: 10:10 PM EDT, Thursday, August 17, 2017

Where: Petco Park in San Diego, California

Lines: San Diego -110/Washington +100

Total: 8.5

Major League Baseball action on Thursday evening and the Washington Nationals will brawl with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California in game one of their four-game series. The Nats have won five of their last seven games here in San Diego. Pitching Probables: Edwin Jackson (3-2, 3.86 ERA) will get the nod for the Nationals and the Padres will counter with Jhoulys Chacin (11-8, 4.06 ERA).

The Nats Have Been Getting Great Pitching

The Washington Nationals have a very good offense, but they will be without Bryce Harper for a little while, so they will need to rely on their pitching a bit more and lucky for them, they have been getting great pitching of late. On Tuesday night, they snapped the Angels’ six game winning streak with a 3-1 win and have now allowed just 1.83 rpg in their last six games. Getting the start on Tuesday was Gio Gonzalez and he allowed just two hits over 6.0 innings of work to improve to 11-5 with a 2.49 ERA on the year. The pen allowed one run over the final three innings and getting the save in the game was Sean Doolittle, which was his 9th save since joining the Nats. They have needed their pitching as the offense has produced just 3.4 rpg in their last five games. Toeing the rubber for the Nationals in this one will be Edwin Jackson and he has gone 3-2 with a 3.86 in eight games overall, including 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five games as a starter. All five starts have been as a member of the Nationals. He also had three appearances out of the pen as a member of the Orioles. Jackson has gone 22-20 with a 4.11 ERA in 60 games (50 starts) during the month of August and he is 0-6 with a 6.63 ERA in 16 games (10 starts) against the Padres, while here at Petco in his career he has gone 4-4 with a 4.31 ERA in 15 games (13 starts).

Washington has been a very good offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.39 rpg, while also ranking 2nd in hitting at .275 and 4th in homers with 175. On the mound, they have been solid so far this year as they come in ranked 8th in the league in ERA at 4.01, while also ranking 5th in WHIP at 1.26.

Offense Wakes Up Against Phillies

The St Louis Padres have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year, but they just beat up on a weak Philadelphia pitching staff. The teams just played a three-game series and the Padres took the first two games of that series and scored 15 runs in the process. They had averaged just 3.4 rpg in their previous five games and 3.81 rpg here at home. They won’t be going to the playoffs, but they would like to finish the season strong and a home series against the Phillies will get them started in the right direction, especially since they now are taking on a much stronger Washington team and also because they just had a 10 games road trip that they went 3-7 on. The Padres are 7-2 their last nine at home. Taking the hill for the Padres in this one will be Jhoulys Chacin and he has gone 11-8 with a 4.06 ERA in 24 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts and 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 12 starts here at home. Chacin has gone 13-10 with a 3.27 ERa in 31 games (26 starts) during the month of August and he is 9-3 with a 2.14 ERA in 16 games (14 starts) here at Petco in his career, while against the Nationals he has gone 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA in seven starts.

The Padres have not been a good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 30th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.82 rpg, while also ranking 30th in hitting at .235 and 16th in homers with 141. On the mound, they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 26th in the league in ERA at 4.74, while also ranking 18th in WHIP at 1.38.

Trends

Washington is:

  • The Under is 15-4-2 in their last 21 vs. the National League West
  • The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 during game one of a series

San Diego is:

  • The Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games

The Padres have been playing well at home, but they are going from playing the worst time in the league, to the 2nd best team in the National League. Still, the do have an edge on the mound in this one, especially here at Petco, but I will not be looking at the side in this one. Jhoulys Chacin has been a dumpster fire on the road this year, but here at home he has a 1.86 ERA in 12 starts and we note that those starts have averaged just 6.25 rpg. Edwin Jackson has just three starts for the Nats and he has a 3.31 ERA in those starts, plus he will be taking on the worst offense in the league and if he gets into trouble then look for a very hot bullpen to take over and keep the late scoring to a minimum. HIs three starts have averaged just 6.33 rpg so far. San Diego home games have been higher scoring than normal, but I do not feel that this will be one of them, especially with the Under going 4-1-1 the last six games in this series.

Pick: Under

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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