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Yankees vs. Mets,
8-17-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#969 New York
#970 New York

Thursday, August 17, 2017 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New York Yankees

64 - 55


New York Mets

53 - 65


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New York Yankees (63-55 SU, 62-56 RL, 60-55-3 O/U) vs. New York Mets (53-64 SU, 50-67 RL, 66-40-11 O/U)

MLB: Thursday, August 17, 2017, Citi Field, New York, New York, 7:10 pm ET

Lines: New York Yankees -182, New York Mets +172; Over/Under: 8

It’s the conclusion of the Subway Series up in the Big Apple. The New York Yankees conclude their four game, two venue battle with the New York Mets on the road Thursday night. The Yankees won the first two games of the series, taking a 4-2 win on Monday night and following that up with a 5-4 triumph on Tuesday night. The pitching matchup for Wednesday night’s contest, which was the first at Citi Field, saw Jaime Garcia pitch for the Yankees against New York’s Robert Gsellman. First pitch in the contest was set for 7:10 pm ET.

New York Yankees Try to Lock Up Series Win, Bragging Rights

New York took the first two games of the Subway Series and can lock up a series victory with a win here regardless of what happens Wednesday. The Yankees jumped to a 4-0 lead and managed to hold on despite giving up a pair in the ninth. Gary Sanchez (run, two RBI), Didi Gregorius and Ronald Torreyes (run) each had two hits in the game for New York. Sanchez (his 21st) and Jacoby Ellsbury (his sixth) each homered in the game for the Yankees. Sonny Gray (7-7) picked up his first win with the Yankees as he threw six innings, allowing two runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts. Aroldis Chapman earned his 16th save despite allowing two runs on two hits with a strikeout in his inning of work. He tweaked his hamstring in the outing and his status should be monitored closely in the coming days.

Luis Severino takes the ball for his 24th start of the year for the Yankees here. He is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP with 38 walks and 166 strikeouts over 143.2 innings of work. Severino was clobbered in taking the loss in his last start, which came Saturday at home against the Red Sox. He threw 4.1 frames, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) on eight hits with two walks and four strikeouts in a 10-5 Yankees loss. Severino is 2-1 with a 5.62 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, six walks and 21 strikeouts over 16 innings in his last three starts. He won his lone career appearance against the Mets, which came in relief at home on August 3, 2016. Severino threw 4.1 innings, allowing one run (none earned) on one hit with a walk and five strikeouts as the Yankees rallied for a 9-5 win. In his 57th major league appearance and 46th start, he pitches at Citi Field for the first time in his career.

New York Mets Playing Out the String

New York dropped the first two games of the series and has lost 13 of their last 19 games entering Wednesday. The Mets trailed 4-0 after six innings: their attempt to rally late fell a run short. Yoenis Cespedes was the lone New York player with two hits in the game while the youth movement provided the offense. Dominic Smith hit his first major league homer in the seventh inning while Amed Rosario clubbed his second big league shot in the ninth. Jacob deGrom (13-6) took the loss after allowing five runs on nine hits with two walks and four strikeouts over 7.1 innings of work.

Steven Matz takes the ball for manager Terry Collins and logs his 13th start of the year for the Mets since making his season debut last month. He is 2-6 with a 5.54 ERA, a 1.468 WHIP, 17 walks and 44 strikeouts over 63.1 innings of work. Matz took the loss in his last start, which was Saturday on the road against the Phillies. He allowed two runs on four hits with two walks and a strikeout over 5.2 innings of work in a 3-1 Mets loss. Matz is 0-2 with a 5.62 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, six walks and 10 strikeouts over 16 innings in his last three starts. He hasn’t gone deeper than 5.2 innings in his last seven starts. This is his third career start against the Yankees: he is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 12 innings of work. Matz is 6-7 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 104.2 innings in his 18 career starts at Citi Field.


New York Yankees

  • Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games
  • Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record
  • Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter

New York Mets

  • Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Mets are 3-14 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games

The Yankees are still in striking distance of the Red Sox as they entered Wednesday 4.5 games off the pace in the AL East. New York holds the top wild card spot in the AL so they are in good shape at the moment. The Mets are tumbling and entered Wednesday tied with the Braves for third in the NL East. The postseason is a pipe dream at this point, which is why veterans were dealt and the youth movement has begun. Look for Severino to get the job done as the Yankees deal Matz and the Mets another loss.

Pick: New York Yankees -182

The Yankees are in comfortable position as they were three games clear of the second wild card holding Angels entering Wednesday. That gave them a 3.5 game cushion as far as the playoff picture went. The Mets are hoping for better luck next year and better health for their rotation. The infusion of Smith and Rosario, two of the team’s top prospects, should pay dividends in the future. The Mets dealt Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce and Neil Walker to help facilitate roles for their young guys: now it’s a matter of the youngsters to take advantage of the situation.

The under is 5-0 in the Yankees’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 6-1-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games, 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games. The Mets have seen the under go 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 5-1 in the last six times they played a fourth game in a series, 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. It doesn’t take much offense to beat the Mets these days: look for this one to stay under the total.

Under 8


Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.


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