Milwaukee Brewers (63-59; 57-69-6 O/U) vs. Colorado Rockies (67-53; 50-64-6 O/U)
MLB: Friday, August 18, 2017 at 8:40pm EST
Line: Colorado -168/Milwaukee +158
The Colorado Rockies will host the Milwaukee Brewers as the clubs kick off a three game series Friday night from Coors Field. The Brewers will give the nod to 33-year old right-hander Matt Garza, and the Rockies will counter with 22-year old right-hander German Marquez. The Rockies won three of four against the Brewers early in the season.
Garza Targets First Road Win Since Late May
Matt Garza will get the call for the 19th time of the season, targeting his third win of the month. Garza conceded four runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings to the Reds in his latest start, and was charged with the loss. The veteran right-hander has hit a bump over his last two starts, but overall he has been decent, currently carrying a 4.38 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP to go with a 6-6 record in 96.2 innings pitched. The Rockies have given him trouble as he owns a 2-5 record with a poor 6.10 ERA in seven career starts. Nolan Arenado is 3 for 6 with two RBI’s against Garza, while Charlie Blackmon is 3 for 13, and Gerrado Parra is 7 for 18. Jonathan Villar is coming around at the plate, collecting eight hits with two RBI’s over his last four games. The career .252 hitter has been unable to get in a groove this season, hitting a weak .223 with nine home runs and 35 RBI’s. Villar has driven in four runs against the Rockies this season.
The Brewers are now averaging 4.63 runs per game, ranking them 19th in the Majors, and are hitting .251 as a team. The Milwaukee pitching has been solid, featuring a 4.15 team ERA, positioning them 11th in the Major Leagues.
Marquez Roughed Up by Marlins in First Loss Since June
German Marquez will get the call for the 21st time of the season, aiming for his first win of the month. Marquez was roughed up in his previous start, serving up five runs in 4.1 innings to the Marlins and took the loss. Overall, the rookie right-hander is having an strong season, posting a 4.13 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP accompanied with a 9-5 record in 113.1 innings pitched. He made his lone career start against the Brewers last season and held them to only two runs in six innings and finished with the no decision. Carlos Gonzalez has already collected 11 RBI’s this month after recording only six last month. The 31-year old right fielder is having a very weak season, hitting only .236 with seven home runs and 37 RBI’s, however if he can find his groove it will add add another element of danger to the Rockies stacked lineup. Gonzalez is only 2 for 16 against the Brewers this season.
The Rockies deep lineup is currently scoring an average of 5.24 runs per game, good for third in the Majors, and are hitting .275 as a team. The Colorado pitching has been below average, recording a 4.59 team ERA, placing them 21st in the Majors.
The Milwaukee Brewers are:
- under is 6-0 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
- under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games.
- under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games in the first game of a series.
The Colorado Rockies are:
- under is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.
- under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
- under is 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Brewers.
I am taking the under in this matchup. Garza has been fairly steady, allowing three or fewer runs in seven out of his last eight starts, and he has been pitching six and seven innings on most nights. In addition, Marquez is also pitching well, posting a 3.81 ERA over his last eight starts, and both clubs have not been scoring a whole lot of runs over their last ten games, so I am confident the under is a strong play in this one.