Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 Los Angeles Dodgers vs.
#954 Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, August 18, 2022 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

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This Thursday, the (80-35) Los Angeles Dodgers and the (62-53) Milwaukee Brewers will play their final game of this four-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 2:10 PM EST inside American Family Field. These two teams split the first two games of the series, as the Brewers were able to get the win in extra innings in game two.

The Los Angeles Dodgers came into this one after battling with the Kansas City Royals. The Dodgers took two of three games, as this was their fifth consecutive series win. They have had it rolling on both sides of the field since returning from the All-Star Break, as not many teams have figured out how to take them down.

The Milwaukee Brewers entered this one after losing their previous series to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers struggled at the dish in two of three games, as they only scored four combined runs in their two losses. They have to be better at the plate in this one if they want to challenge the Dodgers in the final game of this series.

This game was written/published before last night's results.

The Dodgers are Rolling

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month. They are (13-2) in their last 15 games played, as they are extremely tough to beat right now. They are also still in first place in the NL Playoff race and they have a 17.0 game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West. At the plate, the Dodgers are scoring 5.42 runs per game and they are hitting .260 as a team. This is the most runs scored per game and the third highest overall team batting average. They have one of the deepest batting lineups in the MLB, as the Dodgers have faith in each one of their players to reach base safely each time they step up to the plate. Los Angeles has also shown that they can score multiple different ways throughout these games. They are hitting 1.36 home runs per game, which is the fifth most in the league. They can string together multiple hits in order to create a big inning or they can clear the bases with a moonshot over the outfield walls. This team is extremely tough to stop at the plate and they will do whatever it takes to push their base runners closer to home plate. They have already stolen 74 bases this season, which is the seventh most. They are an aggressive offensive team, as they are always looking to score.

According to MLB.com, Andrew Heaney will be getting the start on the mound in this one. He hasn't seen a ton of time on the mound this season, but he is still (1-0) with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has looked a lot better as of late, though. His team has won four of his last five starts but he struggled the last time he was on the mound. He only pitched for 3.0 innings and gave up three hits and two earned runs to the Royals. I don't expect him to pitch deep into this game either, as the Dodgers bullpen has been solid all season. They are allowing 3.11 runs per game, which is the fourth least in the MLB. Scoring on their relievers and closers is not an easy task, as the Dodgers have multiple guys that can come into the game and shut down the opposing offense. As a team, the Dodgers are only allowing 3.23 runs per game this season, as this is the least amount of runs allowed per game. Los Angeles has been getting the job done on both sides of the field.

Can the Brewers Rally?

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently (5-5) in their last 10 games played, as they have to get hot if they want to make a push for the final NL Wild Card Spot. They are currently a 1.0 game behind the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card race, as they have to get hot if they want to make a push towards the postseason. Milwaukee is also only 2.0 games behind the Cardinals for first place in the NL Central. At the plate, the Brewers are scoring 4.58 runs per game and they are hitting .237 as a team. This is the 10th most runs scored per game and the 22nd lowest overall team batting average, as the Brewers have struggled to consistently reach base this season. Luckily, the Brewers have shown that they have some serious power littered throughout their batting lineup. They are hitting 1.38 bombs per game, which is the third most home runs hit per game. They are showing that they aren't one-dimensional at the plate, as they can score multiple different ways, as well. I also expect the Brewers to stay extremely aggressive once they have reached base safely. They have already taken 68 bases this season, which is the 11th most in the league. Milwaukee recognizes how close they are to making the postseason, as I expect them to be very aggressive in this one.

According to MLB.com, the Brewers will be starting Corbin Burnes on the mound. He has been great this season, as he is (8-5) with a 2.39 ERA and a .92 WHIP. Reaching base consistently against him is a real challenge and scoring on him has been even more difficult. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings and only allowed four hits and one earned run to the Cardinals. He hasn't been as solid at home, though. Inside American Family Field, Burnes is (4-3) with a 2.82 ERA. The Brewer's bullpen has to be ready to come into this game and dominate. They are allowing the 17th most runs per game, as they will have to keep the Dodgers off the base paths in the later innings of this one. As a team, the Brewers are allowing 4.30 runs per game, which is the 15th most in the league.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be riding with the Dodgers in this one. They have been on a heater over the last month and I don't see them dropping multiple games in this series. They lost game two and now they will be looking to bounce back. The Dodgers are also scoring the most runs per game and they have the third highest overall team batting average. They will consistently reach base against Burnes and the Dodgers will give themselves multiple opportunities to break this game open. Corbin Burnes has also had issues inside his ballpark, as he has shown that he is beatable inside American Family Field. I also don't see the Brewers having enough success at the plate. Andrew Heaney has started in seven games this season and he is (1-0) with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Milwaukee has the 22nd lowest overall team batting average, as Heaney will be able to keep them off the base paths for the first few innings of this game. Los Angeles' bullpen will then come into the game and continue to shut down the Brewers. They are allowing the fourth least amount of runs per game, as I have faith in the Dodger's bullpen to close out this game.

Los Angeles is one of the best teams I've seen this season. They will bounce back and get the W in this one. Take the Dodgers ML and trust Heaney.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodges -115

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be riding with the over (7.5) in this matchup between the Brewers and the Dodgers. I understand that both starting pitchers have a low ERA, but I still see both offenses having success at the plate in this game. The Dodgers are scoring the most runs per game and they are hitting the fifth most bombs, as they can add runs to the scoreboard in the blink of an eye. Burnes has also had issues inside American Family Field this season, as he won't be able to silence the Dodger's bats for the majority of this game. They will get to him early and the Brewers will be forced to turn to their bullpen. I also expect the Brewers to add a few insurance runs to this total, as Heaney struggled in his last start against the Royals. He didn't pitch deep into that game and the Royals squeaked a few runs past him early. Milwaukee will be able to do the same and they will do their part in pushing this total over (7.5). The Dodgers will score the majority of the runs in this game, as the Brewers won't be able to explode at the plate.

Take the over (7.5) runs and trust that the Dodgers will get to Burnes early in this game.

Prediction: Over 7.5
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!