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Marlins vs. Mets,
8-19-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#953 Miami
Marlins
#954 New York
Mets

Saturday, August 19, 2017 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Marlins
V. WORLEY

59 - 61

2
W's
2
L's
5.06
ERA
1.42
WHIP

New York Mets
R. MONTERO

53 - 67

1
W's
5
L's
5.82
ERA
1.67
WHIP

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Miami Marlins (58-61 SU, 66-53 RL, 61-51-7 O/U) vs New York Mets (53-66 SU, 50-69 RL, 67-41-11 O/U)

When: 7:10 PM EDT, Saturday, August 19, 2017

Where: Citi Field in New York, New York

Lines: New York -111/ Miami +101

Total: 9.5

Major League Baseball action on Saturday evening and a pair of National League East foes will square off as the Miami Marlins rumble with the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York in game two of their three-game series. Pitching Probables: The Marlins will send out Vance Worley (2-2, 4.97 ERA) and the Mets will counter with Rafael Montero (1-8, 5.80 ERA).

Suddenly The Marlins Can Pitch

The Miami Marlins have not had the kind of year that they were expecting to and they hope that better days are ahead now that the Marlins are owned by a group that includes Derek Jeter and Jeb Bush. The excitement around the team of late has been the tear that Giancarlo Stanton is on as he has hit 23 homers in his last 36 games, but now they have to be excited about the pitching they have been getting. Prior to Friday night, the Marlins had won five of their previous six games and had allowed more than three runs just once over that stretch. They have a 3.93 ERA over their last 10 games and have allowed just 3.82 rpg in their last 11. They might have had a chance at a postseason berth had they gotten pitching like that all year. The Marlins have gone 26-32 on the road and have averaged 5.00 rpg and have allowed 5.03 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for the Marlins in this one will be Vance Worley and he has gone 2-2 with a 4.97 ERA in 16 games on the year, including 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in eight games as a starter and 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. Worley has gone 31-29 with a 3.97 ERA in 93 career starts overall, while against the Mets in his career he has gone 4-4 with a 5.59 ERA in 13 games (nine starts), including 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in four games (three starts) here at Citi Field.

The Marlins have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 14th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.71 rpg, while also ranking 4th in hitting at .266 and 18th in homers with 144. On the mound, they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 20th in the league in ERA at 4.54, while also ranking 21st in WHIP at 1.39.

The Mets Get Swept In Subway Series

The New York Mets have very little to ;play for this year, but still, it is a huge series for them when they hookup with the New York Yankees in the Subway series. Well, this time it was the Yankees who saw the series as more important to them as they won all four games played. They did play hard as none of the game were decided by more than two runs, it’s just that the Yankees wanted it more. The Mets are now 6-15 in their last 21 games and 19 games out of first in the National League East. All they can hope for is to look at some of their younger players and they will have to try and rebuild their offense after letting Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce go this year. The Mets have averaged just 3.83 rpg over their last 18 games. They will also need much better health from their pitching staff next year. New York has gone 26-34 at home and have averaged 4.17 rpg and have allowed 5.13 rpg in those games. Toeing the rubber for the Mets in this one will be Rafael Montero and he has gone 1-8 with a 5.80- ERA in 24 games overall, including 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA in 10 games as a starter and 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in his last three starts. Montero has gone 2-9n with a 5.29 ERA in 22 career starts overall and he is 1-10 with a 4.95 ERA in 27 games (14 starts) here at Citi Field in his career, while against the Fish he has gone 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 games (three starts).

The Mets have been a bit below average on offense this year as they come in ranked 16th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.67 rpg, while also ranking 21st in hitting at .247 and 3rd in homers with 180. On the mound, they have been poor as they come in ranked 27th in the league in ERA at 4.88 while also ranking 30th in WHIP at 1.46.

Trends

Miami is:

  • The Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • The Under is 5-0-1 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record

New York is:

  • The Under is 5-0 in Montero’s last five starts during game series of a series
  • The Under is 14-3 in Montero’s last 17 starts on grass

The Mets are really struggling at the moment, while the Marlins have played well of late as they have won five of their last six games (prior to Friday night). The Mets have been struggling on offense of late, while the Marlins have been getting great pitching lately. Vance Worley has really been pitching well of late as he has a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts and the Mets have averaged just 3.83 rpg in their last 18 games. The Marlins are not a great offensive team this year and while Rafael Montero has struggled this year his last three starts have averaged just 7.00 rpg and his six home starts have averaged just 7.67 rpg. This game will not be a high-scoring one and the clincher is the fact that the Under is 14-3 in Montero’s last 17 starts overall.

Pick: Under 9.5

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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