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Marlins vs. Mets,
8-20-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#901 Miami
Marlins
#902 New York
Mets

Sunday, August 20, 2017 at 1:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Marlins
A. CONLEY

59 - 62

5
W's
4
L's
5.26
ERA
1.48
WHIP

New York Mets
J. DEGROM

54 - 67

13
W's
6
L's
3.35
ERA
1.16
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Miami Marlins (59-61; 61-52-7 O/U) vs. New York Mets (53-67; 67-42-11 O/U)

MLB: Sunday, August 20, 2017 at 1:10pm EST

Line: New York -168/Miami +158

Total: 8

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins will close a three game divisional series Sunday afternoon from Citi Field. The Marlins will give the start to 27-year old left-hander Adam Conley, and 29-year old right-hander Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for the Mets. The Marlins own an 8-6 lead in the season series.

Conley Looks to Continue Career Success Against Mets

Adam Conley will get the call for the 14th time of the year, seeking his second straight victory. Conley was solid in his previous start, holding the Giants to three runs in 6.1 innings and notched the win to even his record at 5-5. The 6-foot-3 southpaw has pitched well in five out of his last six starts, however he still owns a weak 5.32 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 66 innings logged. He has conceded five runs in 12 innings against the Mets this season, and currently features a dazzling 1.98 ERA and a 2-1 record in 36.1 career innings against the division rivals. Yoenis Cespedes is 1 for 16 against deGrom, and Asdrubal Cabrera is 4 for 14. Christian Yelich has done good damage against the Mets this season, belting two home runs along with nine RBI’s. The career .291 hitter has not been quite as productive as last season, however overall he is having a decent year, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and 60 RBI’s. Yelich has driven in five runs this month.

The Marlins are swinging the bats well and are currently averaging 4.70 runs per game, ranking them 16th in the Majors, and feature a .265 team batting average. The Miami pitching is carrying a 4.51 team ERA, positioning them 18th overall.

deGrom Hit Hard by Yankees in Rare Rough Outing

Jacob deGrom will take the mound for the 25th time of the year, looking to get back on track after a rough outing. DeGrom conceded five runs including two home runs in 7.1 innings to the Yankees last time out, and was charged with the loss. Overall the 6-foot-4 right-hander is having a stellar season, featuring a 3.35 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP to go with a 13-6 record in 158.2 innings pitched. He limited Miami to only two runs in seven innings in his lone start against them this season, and now sits at 4-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 11 career starts against the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna is 8 for 27 with three RBI’s against deGrom, while Giancarlo Stanton is 7 for 18 with five RBI’s, and Christian Yelich is 11 for 29. Yoenis Cespedes has been very productive as of late, bashing four home runs along with eight RBI’s over his last ten games. The 31-year old slugger is having a mediocre season, currently hitting .271 with 15 home runs and 38 RBI’s. Cespedes owns a weak .167 average with three RBI’s against the Marlins this season.

The Mets are currently averaging 4.64 runs per game, ranking them 18th in the Major Leagues, and are hitting .247 as a team. The New York pitching is struggling, registering a poor 4.87 team ERA, placing them down at 27th in the Majors.

Trends:

The Miami Marlins are:

  • under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • under is 4-0-1 in Conley’s last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record.
  • under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.

The New York Mets are:

  • under is 7-1 in deGrom’s last 8 Sunday starts.
  • under is 5-1-1 in deGrom’s last 7 home starts against a team with a losing record.
  • under is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter.

I am taking the under in this matchup. Jacob deGrom continues to stifle his opponents, posting a dazzling 2.64 ERA over his last seven starts, and he held Miami to only two runs in seven innings with 13 strikeouts in his lone start against them this season. In addition, Conley has silenced the Mets throughout his career, posting a sparkling 1.98 ERA in 36.1 innings, so I am confident he can contain the Mets bats.

Pick: Under 8

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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