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Reds vs. Braves,
8-20-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#903 Cincinnati
Reds
#904 Atlanta
Braves

Sunday, August 20, 2017 at 1:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cincinnati Reds
L. CASTILLO

53 - 71

2
W's
5
L's
3.39
ERA
1.18
WHIP

Atlanta Braves
S. NEWCOMB

54 - 67

1
W's
7
L's
4.45
ERA
1.48
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Cincinnati Reds (52-71; 67-51-5 O/U) vs. Atlanta Braves (54-66; 62-54-4 O/U)

MLB: Sunday, August 20, 2017 at 1:35pm EST

Line: Atlanta -108/Cincinnati -102

Total: 9.5

The Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds as the clubs conclude a three game series Sunday afternoon from SunTrust Park. The Reds will give the nod to 24-year old right-hander Luis Castillo, and the Braves will turn to 24-year old left-hander Sean Newcomb. The season series is currently tied two games apiece.

Castillo Silences Cubs in Another Stellar Start

Luis Castillo will make his 12th start of the season, aiming for his first win of the month. Castillo was brilliant in his previous start, tossing six shutout innings against the Cubs, and finished with the no decision in a contest the Reds won. The rookie right-hander is off to an outstanding start to his Major League career, sporting a 3.39 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP accompanied with a 2-5 record in 66.1 innings of work. Castillo has tallied 66 strikeouts on the season. Zack Cozart is the hottest Reds hitter right now, belting four home runs along with nine RBI’s over his last nine games. The 32-year old shortstop is having a career-year, currently sporting a .313 average with 17 home runs and 48 RBI’s. Cozart has recorded 5 hits in 16 at bats with two homers and six RBI’s against the Braves pitching this season.

The Reds are are currently a averaging 4.74 runs per game, ranking them 14th in the Majors, and own a .255 team batting average. The Cincinnati pitching continues to stumble, posting a Major League worst 5.32 team ERA.

Newcomb Surrenders Three Homers to Rockies

Sean Newcomb will get the nod for the 13th time of the season, targeting his third straight Quality Start. Newcomb conceded three runs on three solo homers in six innings to the Rockies last time out, and finished with the no decision in a game the Braves won. The rookie right-hander is showing strong potential, and now possesses a 4.45 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP to go with a 1-7 record in 64.2 innings pitched. Newcomb, who will be facing the Reds for the first time, is having trouble with his command, issuing 37 walks on the season. Matt Adams has done solid damage against the Reds this season, notching a hit in 8 of 25 at bats with four home runs and eight RBI’s. The 28-year old first baseman has been a nice addition to the Braves since coming over from the Cardinals, sporting a .273 average with 17 home runs and 54 RBI’s. Adams has driven in three runs over his last two games.

The Braves are currently averaging 4.52 runs per game, ranking them 20th in the Major Leagues, and feature a .259 team batting average. The Atlanta pitching has struggled, recording a weak 4.78 team ERA, placing them down at 26th in the Majors.

Trends:

Cincinnati Reds are:

  • 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing record.

The Atlanta Braves are:

  • 1-7 in Necomb’s last 8 starts.
  • 0-4 in Newcomb’s last 4 home starts.
  • 0-4 in their last 4 home games against a right-handed starter.
  • 2-8 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter.

I am taking the Reds in this contest. Luis Castillo is on a stellar run, allowing a total of only seven runs over his last four starts, which equates to a stifling 2.39 ERA, and he owns a 2.48 ERA in his six road starts, so I am confident backing him. Also, Newcomb has conceded four home runs along with 12 walks over his last three starts, and the Reds are averaging a solid 6.9 runs over their last ten games, making them a strong play in this one.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -102

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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