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Yankees vs. Red Sox,
8-20-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#915 New York
Yankees
#916 Boston
Red Sox

Sunday, August 20, 2017 at 1:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New York Yankees
S. GRAY

66 - 56

7
W's
7
L's
3.37
ERA
1.18
WHIP

Boston Red Sox
D. FISTER

70 - 52

2
W's
4
L's
6.27
ERA
1.66
WHIP

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New York Yankees (65-56 SU, 64-57 RL, 62-56-3 O/U) vs Boston Red Sox (70-51 SU, 63-58 RL, 54-62-5 O/U)

When: 1:10 PM EDT, Sunday, August 20, 2017

Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts

Lines: New York -107/ Boston -103

Total: 9.5

American League East foes will collide this afternoon at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts as the New York Yankees grapple with the Boston Red Sox in game three of their three-game series. Pitching Probables: Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.37 ERA) will take the mound for the Yankees and he will be opposed by Rick Porcello (2-6, 5.56 ERA).

Bullpen Implodes In Game One Loss

The New York Yankees have had one of the best bullpens in the league the last few years, but their have been some chink in the armor at times this year and one of those times was on Friday night. The Yankees had a 6-3 lead heading to the bottom of the 7th inning against the Red Sox, but Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman came in and allowed two runs each and the Sox walked away with a 9-6 win. That bullpen now has a 6.35 ERA in their last five games. This is not the right time for bullpen struggles as they are still not a lock to get into the postseason. The Yankees are atop the wildcard standings in the American league, but that lead is now down to just 3.5 games over the Twins and Angels. The Yankees have gone 30-34 on the road and have averaged 4.80 rpg and have allowed 4.17 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for the Yankees in this one will be Sonny Gray and he has gone 7-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 19 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts as a member of the Yankees and 1-5 with a 3.75 ERA on the road overall. In his career, Gray has gone 5-11 with a 3.14 ERA in 20 starts and 20-10 with a 2.98 ERA in 41 day starts, while against the Red Sox he has gone 1-2 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts. Including 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in two starts here at Fenway Park.

The Yankees have been a strong offensive team so far as they come in ranked 4th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.17 rpg, while also ranking 10th in hitting at .260 and 9th in homers with 175. On the mound, they have been very solid as well as they come in ranked 5th in the league in ERA at 3.84, while also ranking 3rd in WHIP at 1.23.

Red Sox Widen Their Lead In The East

The Boston Red Sox have really been playing well of late as they have won 13 of their last 15 games after taking game one of this series by a score of 9-6. Boston Now has widened their lead in the American League East to five games over the Yankees, who are the only team in the division that can catch them. The Red Sox the final two games in New York last week and now the first game of this series and they have Chris Sale on the mound Saturday night, so the Sox have a real shot at putting the knockout blow on the Yankees. The offense has been very hot for Boston of late as they have averaged 6.27 rpg in their last 15 games, while allowing just 3.41 rpg over their last 12 games. This team is rolling right now. The Red Sox are 39-21 at home and have averaged 4.87 rpg and have allowed 4.08 rpg in those games. The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello in this one and he has gone 7-14 with a 4.59 ERA in 25 starts on the year, including 3-0 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts and 5-8 with a 5.13 ERA in 14 starts here at home. Porcello has gone 22-15 with a 3.90 ERA in 47 games (46 starts) during the month of August and 39-34 with a 4.41 ERA in 96 games (93 starts) in the daytime, plus he is 25-17 with a 4.18 ERA in 47 starts here at Fenway, while against the Yankees in his career he has gone 7-8 with a 3.36 ERA in 17 starts.

The Red Sox have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.85 rpg, while also ranking 6th in hitting at .263 and 26th in homers with 127. On the mound, they have been very strong so far as they come in ranked 4th in the league in ERA at 3.72, while also ranking 4th in WHIP at 1.25.

Trends

New York is:

  • 4-1 in their last five games on grass

Boston is:

  • None Available

The Yankees have not been playing that great in this series of late, but they do have sonny gray on the mound with a chance to pick up a much needed win, especially since they could be 6.0 games out when this one is played as they are facing Chris Sale on Saturday.  The Red Sox will be sending out Rick Porcello and he has struggled this year, after winning the Cy Young award last year. Porcello has gone 7-14 on the year overall, with a 4.59 ERA, but he is 3-0 in his last three starts, despite the fact that he has a 4.91 ERA over that stretch. Still, he is just 5-8 with a 5.13 ERA at home and the Yankee offense is bound to wake up at some point. I see the Yankees doing just enough on offense to take this game.

Pick: New York -107

This is really a huge game for both teams as they Red Sox want to put more distance between themselves and the Yankees, while New York is looking to close the game. The Red Sox have been very hot on offense, but Sonny Gray has a strong 2.13 ERA in his last seven starts. He does have a 5.16 ERA in four career starts against the Sox, but I don’t see him struggling here as he is really locked in. Rick Porcello has struggled this year and he has a 5.13 ERA at home, but he also has a 3.44 ERA in his last five starts against the Yankees, despite the fact that he is 1-4 in those games. This should be a tight low-scoring game, especially with so much on the line and the fact that the Under is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Pick: Under 9.5

Confidence: 4

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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