Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#955 Miami Marlins 9.5 vs.
#956 Atlanta Braves -250
Tuesday, August 20, 2019 at 7:20pm EDT
Written by David Hess

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Major league Baseball action on Tuesday evening and a pair of teams from the National League East will square off as the Miami Marlins grapple with the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, Georgia. This is game one of a three-game series. The Braves lead the season series 12-4.

Pitching Matchup: Getting the nod for the Marlins will be Elieser Hernandez (2-5, 5.40 ERA) and he will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel (3-5, 4.39 ERA).

The Fish Continue To Flounder

The Miami Marlins were like a fish out of water in their trip to Colorado over the weekend as they lost all three games and were outscored 21-10 in the process. The Marlins continue to struggle as they have now gone just 1-6 in their last seven games and are firmly entrenched in the basement of the entire National League. The offense has been a mess all year, while the Pitching has been respectable, but now Miami is struggling on the mound as well. They come into this game with a 7.25 ERA over their last 10 games, which includes an ERA of 10.41 from their pen over that stretch. That just won’t cut it. Miami will need their pitching to show up in this series or it will be a long one for them, especially since they have averaged just 3.18 rpg against the Braves this year.

The Marlins did play a close game in their finale with the Rockies as they lost by a score of just 7-6. The Marlins nearly won the game as they took a 6-4 lead into the bottom of the 9th, but the Rockies scored twice to send the game to extras, where they won in walk-off fashion in the bottom of the 10th. Taking the loss in the Contest was Jeff Brigham, who is now 2-2 with a 6.97 ERA on the year. The pen blew a solid start from Jordan Yamamoto, who allowed just two ERs on four hits in 5.2 innings of work. Leading the offensive attack was Harold Ramirez, who had three hits and two RBIs. The Marlins had no homers in the game. Miami is now 20-39 on the road for the year.

Taking the hill for the Fish will be Elieser Hernandez and he has gone 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 15 games (nine starts) this year, including 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in his last three starts and 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in six games (four starts) on the road. Hernandez is 2-4 with a 4.73 ERA in nine games as a starter this year. Righting are hitting .212 against him so far, while lefties are hitting .286. In his career, he has gone 2-9 with a 4.84 ERA in 15 games as a starter and 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA in seven games (two starts) against the Braves, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in three games out of the pen here at SunTrust Park.

Miami has been poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 29th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.68 rpg, while also ranking 28th in hitting at .241 and 30th in homers with 102. On the mound, they have been below average as they rank 18th in the league in ERA at 4.67, while also ranking 16th in WHIP at 1.34 and 19th in K’s with 1061. Their pen ranks 26th in ERA at 5.13.

Braves Take Two Of Three From The Dodgers

The Atlanta Braves don’t have a whole of hope in catching the Dodgers for the best record in the National League, but they did show LA that they will be a team to be reckoned with should the two meet up in the postseason. The Braves did lose game one of the series by a score of 8-3, but they then bounced back to take the last two. Atlanta won on Saturday by a score of 4-3 and then followed it up with a 5-3 win on Sunday. Getting their pitching back was key as they allowed just the six runs in the two games, after giving up a total of 18 runs in their previous two games. The Braves will now look to keep producing on the mound against a Miami team that has one of the worst offenses in the league. The Braves have a 5.5 game lead over the Nats in the NL East, but they trail the Dodgers by 8.0 games. The Braves have these three against the Marlins, but then have a tough three-game series in New York against the Mets.

Back to Sunday’s 5-3 win. The Braves trailed that game 3-0 after the first and 3-1 heading to the bottom of the 6th, but that is where things changed as Atlanta put up a four-spot in that frame. Those four runs came on one swing from Rafael Ortega, who hit a grand slam. He picked a great time for his first round-tripper of the year and just his 2nd in 114 career games. Max Fried got a no-decision after allowing three ERs on eight hits and three walks while striking out eight in 5.0 innings of work. Anthony Swarzak (1-1, 2.70 ERA) snatched up the win, while Mark Melancon picked up his 4th save. The Braves are now at 36-27 here at home for the year.

Toeing the rubber for the Braves will be Dallas Keuchel and he has gone 3-5 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 starts on the year, including 0-1 with a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts and 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts here at home. Righties are hitting .282 off of Keuchel this year, while lefties are hitting .159 off the southpaw.  In his career, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in five starts here at SunTrust Park and 11-15 with a 3.94 ERA in 42 games (40 starts) during the month of August. Keuchel has gone 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins.

The Braves have been a very good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.38 rpg, while also ranking 7th in hitting at .263 and 6th in homers with 200. On the mound, they have been above average as they come in ranked 13th in the league in ERA at 4.46, while also ranking 22nd in WHIP at 1.42 and 13th in K’s with 1078. The bullpen ranks 14th in the league with a 4.45 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Bad spot for the Braves in this one as they are off a huge series with the Dodgers at home, but I still feel that they will bring their “A” game in this one. Last week, the Braves and Marlins hooked up in a four-game series back in Miami and the Marlins gained a split in that series. The Braves were not happy about the split and will do what is needed to blow the Fish out of the water in this series, especially in game one. Dallas Keuchel has not looked sharp for the Braves, but he is facing one of the worst offenses in the league and he has revenge on his mind after losing 9-2 to the Fish last week. Atlanta’s offense will also be angry as they faced Hernandez in that game and he had a very good outing, giving up no runs and just two hits in 6.0 innings of work. the Marlins are 1-5 in Hernandez’ last six road starts and the Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 home games in this series. That seals the deal for me.

Prediction: Atlanta -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

As I stated in the Side Analysis of this game, Dallas Keuchel has not looked sharp for the Braves in the early going. He has pitched well at home. but have played well against him in his career, as he has a 4.70 ERA against the Fish. He just lost to them last week by a 9-2 score, so they seem to have his number. The Braves have a strong offense and here at home, they have averaged a solid 5.38 rpg. Elieser Hernandez has a 7.20 ERA on the road and the Marlins have allowed 7.30 rpg in their last 10 games overall plus behind Hernandez is a pen that owns a 10.41 ERA in its last 10 games. The Braves could very well get the Over on their own. The Over is 10-1-2 in Miami’s last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 18-7-2 in Atlanta’s last 27 games following an off day. That is the clincher.

Prediction: Over 9.5
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.