Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#973 New York Yankees -130 vs.
#974 Oakland A's 10
Tuesday, August 20, 2019 at 10:07pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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It’s the start of a series between a pair of teams in the thick of the American League playoff picture out on the west coast. The New York Yankees are on the road as they open a three-game set with the Oakland A’s Tuesday night. New York was dropped 8-4 in the finale of their four-game home set with the Indians Sunday afternoon to split that four-game set. Oakland was defeated 4-1 at home by Houston Sunday but took three of the four games in the series. The teams split six meetings last season with the A’s taking two of three at home in the last series September 3-5, 2018.

New York Yankees Look to Earn Road Success

New York ended up with a split of their four-game set with the Indians as they were beaten Sunday: they now play 24 of their final 36 games of the regular season on the road. The Yankees entered Monday still holding a comfortable 9.5-game advantage over Tampa Bay in the AL East. DJ LeMahieu (run, three RBI), Aaron Judge (RBI) and Brett Gardner each had two hits in the contest. CC Sabathia (5-7) struggled in his return from the injured list and took the loss. He allowed four runs on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts over three innings, throwing 67 pitches, 37 for strikes.

The Yankees turn to Domingo German in this one as he makes his 22nd appearance and 21st start of the season. He comes in 16-2 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP, 26 walks and 124 strikeouts over 116 innings of work this year. German won his fourth straight start in his last outing, which came last Tuesday at home against the Orioles. He threw seven innings, allowing two runs on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in an 8-3 Yankees triumph. German is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, two walks and 17 strikeouts over 19 innings in his last three starts. He has no record with a 6.00 ERA, a 1.778 WHIP, six walks and seven strikeouts over nine innings of work in two career appearances, one start, against the A’s. German didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career appearance at the O.co Coliseum, which came in relief on June 17, 2017. In that outing, he went four innings, allowing no runs on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts in a 5-2 Yankees defeat.

Oakland A’s Battling to Climb Into Playoff Position

Oakland had their four-game win streak snapped as they dropped the finale of their four-game set with the Astros at home Sunday. The A’s entered Monday second in the AL West, 7.5 games behind the Astros: they fell 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay for the second wild card spot. Oakland saw Matt Olson pick up two of their six hits while Marcus Semien accounted for the team’s lone run with his 21st homer of the season. Brett Anderson (10-9) took the loss on the mound as he allowed four runs on seven hits with four walks and three strikeouts over five innings.

Homer Bailey takes the mound for his 25th start overall on the year and his seventh for the A’s after being acquired from Kansas City last month. He comes in 10-8 with a 5.22 ERA, a 1.398 WHIP, 47 walks and 108 strikeouts over 122.1 innings of work on the year. Bailey picked up the win in his last start, which came Wednesday on the road against the Giants. He threw seven innings, allowing no runs on two hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in a 9-5 Oakland win. Bailey is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, five walks and 12 strikeouts over 17.2 innings in his last three starts. He has a 2-1 record with a 4.42 ERA, a 1.255 WHIP, three walks and 13 strikeouts over 18.1 innings in three career starts against the Yankees. Bailey is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.168 WHIP, 10 walks and 28 strikeouts over 31.2 innings in five career starts at the O.co Coliseum.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Oakland has work to do if they want to leapfrog Tampa Bay in the wild card race. The A’s have called up top prospect A.J. Puk to try and bolster their pitching staff and the team hopes to get Sean Manaea back as well. German leads the league in wins and the Yankees have plenty of power in their lineup. With that said, New York’s success has mainly come on the road as they are 49-20 at Yankee Stadium compared to 34-23 on the road. The final six weeks will be a test for the Yankees but they have room for error at this point in time. Bailey was sharp in his last outing: look for him to help the A’s pick up a tough win in this contest.

Prediction: Oakland A’s +132

Full-Game Total Pick

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New York has been highly effective offensively this season despite having key members of their optimal lineup missing large chunks of the season. Despite Giancarlo Stanton playing just nine games so far and other guys like Aaron Judge (69 games), Edwin Encarnacion (36 games), Aaron Hicks (59), Gary Sanchez (85), Miguel Andujar (12) and Didi Gregorius (53) all having less than optimal workloads, the Yankees entered Monday leading the majors with 5.93 runs per game and stood second in homers with 223, trailing only the Twins. Oakland has been effective, ranking 12th with 5.03 runs per game but their pitching has carried the load, ranking sixth with a 4.04 team ERA. Can Bailey keep New York in check to get the ball to the bullpen with a lead?

The under is 12-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 16 games following an off day. Oakland has seen the under go 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 4-1-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 15-6 in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 5-2 in their last seven after a loss. Given the way that Bailey pitched in his last outing and that German has done the job all season, this one falls just short of the total.

Prediction: Under 9.5

First Five Innings Side Pick

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The Yankees have to figure out some of their pitching issues down the stretch and that is something that the team will focus on over the coming weeks. Sabathia lasted just three innings in his return from the injured list while James Paxton has been mediocre most of the year. Pitching has struggled on the road for the Yankees as they have an ERA more than one and a half runs per game higher as the visiting team (5.41) compared to at home (3.76) this season. Oakland has a 3.64 team ERA at home this season and Bailey is coming off a solid outing in his last start. Give the A’s the upper hand in this contest.

Prediction: Oakland A’s +129

First Five Innings Total Bet

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Both teams are averaging better than five runs per game this season, which is impressive. The Yankees have been blazing on the road, averaging 6.47 runs per game while slashing .275/.350/.500 with 109 homers in their 57 road games. They’ve hit only nine fewer homers on the road than at Yankee Stadium despite playing 12 fewer games. Oakland has averaged 5.6 runs per game at home this season but the dimensions of the O.co Coliseum have helped limit the offensive production there. The average game there generates 8.65 runs per game, which is tied for the sixth-fewest runs per contest in the majors. It’s also 24th in OPS with a .723 mark: that all adds up to this one falling under the number.

Prediction: Under 5.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.