Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#5909 Miami Marlins vs.
#5910 Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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It’s the conclusion of a weekend series between a pair of National League teams on opposite ends of the standings in the City of Angels. The Miami Marlins are on the road as they are across the country to finish a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday afternoon. In the opening game of the series Friday night, Los Angeles clawed their way back to earn a 2-1 victory in a well-pitched contest by both sides. Which team comes up with the victory on getaway day to leave town with momentum? This article was published prior to the conclusion of the middle game of the series at Dodger Stadium Saturday night.

Marlins Try to Pick Up Victory on Getaway Day

Miami battled to the end but ended up on the wrong end of a low-scoring affair Friday night in the series opener. The Marlins entered Sunday fourth in the NL East, 25 games behind the Mets for the division lead. In the NL Wild Card picture, they were a distant 13.5 games behind the Padres for the final Wild Card pot. On Friday night, the Marlins finished with five hits with no player having more than one. Jerar Encarnacion drove in the lone run for Miami with an RBI double in the seventh inning: he also committed an error to help the tying run score in the bottom of the frame. Jesus Luzardo didn’t factor in the decision as he threw 6.1 innings, allowing one run on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts. Dylan Floro (0-2) took the loss in relief as he allowed one run on one hit with one walk and one strikeout in one inning of work.

Sandy Alcantara gets the call for the Marlins in the series finale as he makes his 25th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 11-5 with a 1.92 ERA, a 0.942 WHIP, 43 walks and 152 strikeouts over 173 innings of work this season. Alcantara picked up the win in his last start, which came at home against the Padres Monday night. He threw seven innings, allowing no runs on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Marlins won 3-0. In his last three starts, Alcantara is 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, four walks and 14 strikeouts over 23.2 innings of action. Alcantara faces the Dodgers for the fourth time in his career in this contest. He comes in 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA, a 2.613 WHIP, six walks and 12 strikeouts over 10.1 innings of work. Alcantara is 0-1 with a 19.89 ERA, a 3.00 WHIP, five walks and seven strikeouts over 6.1 innings of work in two career starts at Dodger Stadium.

Los Angeles Dodgers Cruising Along in NL West

Los Angeles’s win Friday means they have merely alternated wins and losses in their last six games entering Saturday but that hasn’t impacted their playoff position a bit. The Dodgers entered Sunday with a massive 18-game lead on the Padres in the division and they were 6.5 games ahead of the Mets for the top record in the National League. In Friday’s game, Mookie Betts (run) had three of the team’s six hits and scored the winning run in the bottom of the eighth inning on a fielder’s choice off the bat of Will Smith. Tyler Anderson threw seven innings, allowing one run on five hits with three walks and six strikeouts, yet didn’t factor in the decision. Chris Martin (4-0) earned the win with a scoreless eighth, striking out one, while Evan Phillips handled the ninth for his second save of the year.

Ryan Pepiot is expected to take the hill for his seventh start of the season for the Dodgers in this contest. He comes in 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, 20 walks and 29 strikeouts over 25.1 innings of work this season. Pepiot didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came on the road against the Brewers Tuesday night. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing three runs on three hits with five walks and six strikeouts in a game the Dodgers went on to lose 5-4 in 11 innings. In his last three starts, Pepiot is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, nine walks and 16 strikeouts over 14 innings of work. This marks his first career start against the Marlins in this, his seventh career major league start. Pepiot is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, seven walks and 15 strikeouts over 13.1 innings of work in three career starts at Dodger Stadium.

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While the Dodgers are a superior team, especially on the offensive side of the ledger, the fact remains that good pitching can neutralize good hitting on any given night. We saw it with Luzardo on Friday night as he did a solid job slowing the Dodgers down. Now, Los Angeles has to deal with Alcantara, who is the clear frontrunner to win the NL Cy Young Award given his stellar work all season long. Sure, he’s struggled against the Dodgers in his limited work against them but he’s developed into a true front of the rotation starter this season. Pepiot has been okay at the big league level but he has had issues with control, handing out more than seven walks per nine innings this season. It’s a small sample size but concerning nonetheless. Alcantara shuts the Dodgers down and they find a way to scratch out a couple of runs to earn a surprising road win.

Prediction: Miami Marlins +150

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Miami entered Sunday having seen the under post a 65-50-5 mark on the season. The Marlins entered Saturday’s action 27th in the majors with an average of 3.68 runs per game, though that climbs to 3.79 runs per game on the road. Miami has an average total of 7.84 runs per game, a number that inches up to 7.86 runs per contest on the road. Los Angeles has been an under machine throughout the season as the under is 60-47-12 in their games entering Saturday. The Dodgers are first in the Majors entering Sunday with 5.301runs per contest, though that trends down slightly to 5.20 runs per game at home. Los Angeles has an average total of 8.48 runs per game, a number that edges up slightly to 8.56 runs a game at Dodger Stadium. We saw only three runs in the opener and with Alcantara on the mound, runs likely are at a premium. This game winds up falling short of the total.

Prediction: Under 7.5

Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.