Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#919 New York Mets vs.
#920 New York Yankees
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Nathaniel Reeves

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Intra-city rivals will close out a two-game Subway Series on Tuesday night in the Bronx with the New York Mets visiting the New York Yankees. These teams are scheduled to meet in the series opener late on Monday night after the time of publishing. The Mets are top the NL East by four games at 79-44, while the Yankees hold an eight-game lead in the AL East with a record of 74-48.

These teams met less than a month ago at Citi Field, with the Mets winning both matchups.

Mets rally for wild win over Phillies

In one of the most memorable games of a fantastic season so far, the Mets triumphed in a slugfest against the Phillies to earn a series win. After falling behind 4-0 in the first, the Mets fought back thanks to Mark Canha, who launched a game-tying three-run homer in the seventh and a go-ahead two-run shot in the ninth.

Jose Butto went four innings in his MLB debut, allowing seven runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out five. Trevor May picked up the win in relief, while Edwin Diaz locked down his 28th save despite allowing a rare run. Starling Marte was on base four times including a double with an RBI, a run scored and a steal.

“We come out and we expect to win every day,” Canha said to MLB.com. “If we go down four runs in the first inning, we still expect to win until the game is over. That's what winners are made of.”

The Mets are one of baseball's most profitable bets on the money line for the season while going 68-55 on the run line. Overs are 62-53-8 for the Mets, with three of their last four games going over the betting total.

This is the fifth-highest scoring offense in baseball at 4.80 runs per game on a strong .740 team OPS. The pitching staff ranks sixth at a 3.59 ERA including a mark of 3.66 from the bullpen.

Jeff McNeil is having a stellar campaign at the plate, batting .321/.374/.465 with 49 RBI and 54 runs scored. Francisco Lindor has been one of baseball's most valuable overall players at 5.5 WAR on an .805 OPS, 21 homers, 13 steals and 84 RBI.

Taijuan Walker is expected to make his 22nd start of the season, hoping to continue another solid campaign as he's 10-3 with a 3.36 ERA over 112.1 innings. The 30-year-old went just two innings against the Atlanta Braves last Tuesday allowing no runs on one hit and two walks before leaving with a back injury.

Catcher Tomas Nido (flu), infielder Eduardo Escobar (strained oblique) and utilityman Luis Guillorme (strained groin) recently hit the IL. The rotation is down Carlos Carrasco (strained oblique), Joey Lucchesi (Tommy John surgery) and Tylor Megill (strained shoulder). Relievers John Curtiss (Tommy John surgery), Sean Reid-Foley (Tommy John surgery), Stephen Nogosek (strained oblique), Drew Smith (strained lat) and Tommy Hunter (back tightness) are out.

Yankees hope to build momentum after win

It's been an ugly month for the Yankees, but they did come up with a huge win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday to extend their advantage in the AL East. DJ LeMahieu got the Yankees off to a strong start with an RBI single in the first before adding another run-scoring single in the third, and Andrew Benintendi's two-run homer in the seventh was the difference maker.

Nester Cortes went six strong innings, allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out five. Lou Trivino got the win with 2.1 scoreless innings of relief. Benintendi had his best game as a Yankee with a double, a homer, a walk and two runs scored.

"Benny is a hitter. He’s going to hit. I don’t worry about him so much. But still, he’s coming to a new team at the Deadline, getting settled, and we’re going through this as a team. Even though he’s very low-key, it’s still a complete change in environment. Everyone takes some settling in. The at-bats have really started to pick up here,” manager Aaron Boone said via MLB.com.

Despite the gaudy overall record, the Yankees are down slightly on the money line for the season while going 54-68 on the run line. Overs are 58-60-4 for the Yankees after eight of their last 10 games went under the betting total.

Even with the recent struggles this remains the second-highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.02 runs per game on a .755 team OPS that is third-best. The pitching staff also remains ranked in the top three with a 3.35 collective ERA including a mark of 3.01 from a strong bullpen.

Aaron Judge is having a historic season, posting a 1.044 OPS with 46 homers and 102 RBI. LeMahieu has also been effective at the plate, posting a .790 OPS with 12 homers and 71 runs scored.

Trade acquisition Frankie Montas will make his third start with the Yankees and 23rd of the season overall, hoping to shake off a rough outing against the Blue Jays on Thursday when he allowed six runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out two. The 29-year-old has gone 4-10 with a 3.87 ERA over 118.2 total innings.

New York is down two big bats in Giancarlo Stanton (Achillies tendinitis) and Matt Carpenter (fractured foot) plus outfielder Harrison Bader (plantar fasciitis).  Starting pitcher Luis Severino is recovering from a strained lat. Relievers Zack Britton (Tommy John surgery), Chad Green (Tommy John surgery), Albert Abreu (elbow inflammation), Miguel Castro (shoulder inflammation), Clay Holmes (back spasms), Michael King (fractured elbow) and Stephen Ridings (shoulder impingement).

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Even though they finally picked up a win on Sunday, the Yankees have still scuffled badly in August as the lineup is suddenly looking punchless while the bullpen is piling up the injuries. This well-rounded Mets team is good enough to take advantage, especially with Montas struggling since the trade deadline.

Montas has major home/road splits as he hasn't been good outside the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland, and that is showing up in his early Yankees career as he's allowed 14 runs in his first 14 innings with the team. The Mets are one of baseball's toughest offenses to deal with, ranking fifth with a 113 wRC+ while running up opposing pitch counts better than any other lineup.

The Yankees have just a 98 wRC+ as a team over the past 30 days as the injuries to Stanton and Carpenter have really hurt. Fading the Yankees has been a good play lately, and the Mets continue to look like a World Series contender.

Prediction: Mets ML

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Walker is having a good season, but has faded in the second half before and has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 20.2 innings. His back injury could also be limiting, and while the Mets bullpen is solid, a short inning will challenge its depth.

While the overall stats for the Yankees bullpen look dominant, key injuries have started to pile up, as losing the elite back-end duo of King and Holmes is tough to overcome. Add in the hitter-friendly dimensions at Yankee Stadium, and we'll get an under here.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Nathaniel Reeves , "Nathaniel Reeves"

Nathaniel Reeves is an avid sports fan with degrees in journalism from the University of Washington and statistics from Western Washington University. He's always had a passion for applying statistical analysis to sports betting and has successfully handicapped college football, college basketball, and Esports for years. Nathaniel has endured being a lifelong fan of the Seattle Mariners, along with the Seattle Seahawks, UW Huskies and soon to be Seattle Kraken. He has been a very successful sports bettor the last several years and we are thrilled that Nate has chosen to bring his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. You would be very wise to follow him daily. 
Follow on Twitter @njr3701