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Marlins vs. Phillies,
8-24-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#903 Miami
Marlins
#904 Philadelphia
Phillies

Thursday, August 24, 2017 at 1:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Marlins
V. WORLEY

62 - 63

2
W's
3
L's
4.85
ERA
1.36
WHIP

Philadelphia Phillies
J. THOMPSON

46 - 79

1
W's
1
L's
1.8
ERA
1.7
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Miami Marlins (62-62; 64-53-7 O/U) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (45-79; 57-58-9 O/U)

MLB: Thursday, August 24, 2017 at 1:05pm EST

Line: Miami -129/Philadelphia +117

Total: 10

The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up a four game divisional series Thursday afternoon from Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins will give the nod to 29-year old right-hander Vance Worley, and the Phillies will send 23-year old right-hander Jake Thompson to the hill. The Marlins own a 6-4 lead in the season series.

Worley Eyes Third Win of August

Vance Worley will make his 18th appearance and tenth start of the season, aiming for win number three. Worley pitched well in his latest effort, conceding two runs in 5.1 innings to the Mets and took the loss. The veteran right-hander has looked good in three of his last four starts and is carrying a 4.82 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP accompanied with a 2-3 record in 56 innings pitched. He has conceded three runs in four innings of relief against the Phillies this season, and has now allowed a total of nine runs (seven earned) in 13 career innings. Freddy Galvis is 4 for 6 against Worley, while Odubel Herrera is 0 for 4, Cesar Hernandez is 1 for 3.  Marcell Ozuna has driven in eight runs over his last six games and is nearing the 100 RBI mark for the first time of his career. The 26-year old left fielder is having a career-year, sporting a .307 average with 29 home runs and 97 RBI’s. Ozuna has belted four homers with eight RBI’s against the Phillies this season.

The Marlins are currently scoring an average of 4.76 runs per game, ranking them 15th overall, and feature a strong .267 team batting average. The Miami pitching has been average, posting a 4.54 team ERA, placing them 19th in the Major Leagues.

Thompson Recalled as Injuries Mount in Phillies Rotation

Jake Thompson will make his sixth appearance and third start of the season, aiming for his second win. Thompson last saw action with the Phillies on August 2nd and was roughed up, serving up seven runs (two earned) including three home runs in five innings to the Angels, and was hit with the loss. The young right-hander did toss five shutout innings against the Braves in his other start this season, and has allowed a total of 12 runs (seven earned) in 15 innings pitched on the season. Thompson posted a poor 5.70 ERA in 10 starts with the Phillies last year. The Phillies have called up yet another rookie in Jorge Alfaro who is off to a good start. The 24-year old catcher has collected 11 hits in his 33 at bats, and he has driven in three runs over his last five games. Alfaro is ranked as the Phillies number three prospect. 

The Phillies are only averaging 4.02 runs per game, ranking them down at 29th in the Major Leagues, and are hitting .247 as a team. The Philadelphia pitching is carrying a 4.70 team ERA, positioning them 23rd overall.

Trends:

The Miami Marlins are:

  • 6-1 in Worley’s last 7 starts.
  • 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
  • 8-1 in their last 9 games against a right-handed starter.

The Philadelphia Phillies are:

  • 0-5 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter
  • 1-4 in Thompson’s last 5 starts against the NL East.
  • 20-53 in their last 73 games against a right-handed starter.

I am siding with the Marlins in this contest. Worley owns a stifling 2.42 ERA over his last four starts, so he should have no problem containing the Phillies terrible offense. Furthermore, Thompson owns a weak 5.37 ERA in his 68.2 career innings pitched, and the Marlins are averaging a solid 5.8 runs over their last ten games while the Phillies continue to struggle

Pick: Miami Marlins -129

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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